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SCOTUS Forecast: Tom Goldstein Picks the Next Great Liberal Justices

Supreme Court7.jpg

Over at SCOTUSblog, Tom Goldstein has a long post on who a Democratic president might nominate to fill the Supreme Court vacancies that would surely open up if the GOP exits the White House in 2008.

Goldstein’s criteria are fairly straightforward: ideology, experience, demographics, and age (he excluded anyone born before 1952).

Some of the names are familiar (Sonia Sotomayor, Merrick Garland) and some are unexpected (Jennifer Granholm, Ken Salazar). Here’s Goldstein’s bottom line:

My ultimate predictions? Kim Wardlaw (2009, for Souter), Deval Patrick (2010, for Stevens), and Elena Kagan (2011, for Ginsburg).

What, no Harold Koh?

A SCOTUSblog commenter suggests another factor for a Democratic president to consider:

a relevant consideration is “How aggressively is the nominee going to articulate a coherent liberal jurisprudence?” Finding a lefty version of Scalia to blast the right and get opinions into law school casebooks is what Democrats should be aiming for if they care about politics and partisan entrenchment to their benefit.

The anti-Scalia! Does such a creature exist?

Comments

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1 Posted by Kathleen Sullivan | Permalink Friday, July 13, 2007 11:26 AM

What about me?

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2 Posted by First! | Permalink Friday, July 13, 2007 11:26 AM

First!

P.S., libs suck.

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3 Posted by 11:26 | Permalink Friday, July 13, 2007 11:28 AM

Touché, Kathleen Sullivan!

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4 Posted by guest | Permalink Friday, July 13, 2007 11:29 AM

Fulbright & Jaworski's D.C. office just raised as follows:

Class - Base - 1900hrs - 2150 - 2300 - 2500
'06 - $160k - no bonus
'05 - $165k - $5k - $5k - $5k - $5k
'04 - $170k - $15k - $7.5k - $12.5k - $12.5k
'03 - $185k - $25k - $10k - $12.5k - $12.5k
'02 - $200k - $30k - $12.5k - $17.5k - $17.5k
'01 - $210k - $35k - $12.5k - $17.5k - $17.5k
'00 - $220k - $40k - $15k - $17.5k - $17.5k
'99 - $230k - $40k - $15k - $22.5k - $22.5k
'98 - $240k - $40k - $15k - $22.5k - $22.5k
'97 - $245k - $40k - $15k - $22.5k - $22.5k
'96 - $250k - $40k - $15k - $22.5k - $22.5k

After 1900 hours, up to 150 of pro bono and other qualified hours count towards the higher bonuses.

Salary is retroactive to July 1.

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5 Posted by guest | Permalink Friday, July 13, 2007 11:33 AM

Harold Koh is on the long list. Duh.

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6 Posted by anon | Permalink Friday, July 13, 2007 11:36 AM

"get opinions into law school casebooks"?? LOL. Yeah, that is important.

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7 Posted by guest | Permalink Friday, July 13, 2007 11:38 AM

Big news for Texas! If there is a nice bonus at 1900, what is the minimum billables for the "base"? [and is there a 10 year partnership track if the numbers run back to 96?]

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8 Posted by guest | Permalink Friday, July 13, 2007 11:40 AM

The justice described in the SCOTUSblog comments wouldn't be the anti-Scalia. The anti-Scalia would be someone who decides cases based on which side of the bed he or she got up on that day, or whether it was raining outside. In other words, the anti-Scalia would be Sandra Day O'Connor.

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9 Posted by guest | Permalink Friday, July 13, 2007 11:42 AM

11:38, this is only D.C., not Texas offices. No formal minimum hours requirement that I know of. Partnership track is 8-10 years.

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10 Posted by guest | Permalink Friday, July 13, 2007 11:47 AM

11:42: Good thing I'm doing administrative stuff today instead of client work. My lack of attention to detail is scary. I guess it's the hangover from the summer associate event last night.

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11 Posted by guest | Permalink Friday, July 13, 2007 11:48 AM

No, the anti-Scalia would be the one where every opinion read "the constitution doesn't say it. So we can make it up."

[based on the principal that every Scalia opinion reads: "The Constitution doesn't say that. You're all a bunch of fucking retards."]

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12 Posted by NYU5L | Permalink Friday, July 13, 2007 11:52 AM

Nice thoughts, but a few of them seem pretty unlikely. Deval Patrick, in particular, hasn't been able to keep out of his own way ever since coming into office, and the last thing a president wants when nominating a justice is somebody with a reputation for incompetence. And Ken Salazar can hardly be considered either liberal or heavyweight enough to counterbalance a Scalia-Roberts-Alito intellectual axis on the right.

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13 Posted by guest | Permalink Friday, July 13, 2007 11:54 AM

11:52: That makes the Kagan selection interesting. Can the Dean of Harvard Law take on the right-wing nut jobs?

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14 Posted by guest | Permalink Friday, July 13, 2007 11:59 AM

any other bonus policy at F&J, or are the lockstep hours targets it? Seems like they don't incent huge hours very week, esp. at the low levels.

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15 Posted by guest | Permalink Friday, July 13, 2007 12:00 PM

There isn't a person alive who can match Scalia's intellectual prowess.

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16 Posted by guest | Permalink Friday, July 13, 2007 12:06 PM

Pam Karlan is the anti-Scalia!

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17 Posted by guest | Permalink Friday, July 13, 2007 12:09 PM

Deval Patrick? ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha

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18 Posted by guest | Permalink Friday, July 13, 2007 12:24 PM

Maybe the anti-Scalia would be someone who doesn't get all hot and bothered about the "homosexual agenda".

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19 Posted by 12:24 | Permalink Friday, July 13, 2007 12:26 PM

Should have added, cause nothing makes you a preeminent intellect like quoting Jerry Falwell/Bill Donahue.

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20 Posted by anon | Permalink Friday, July 13, 2007 12:30 PM

If the Warren era decisions are any indication of liberal opinions to be included in casebooks, I don't think conservatives will have much to worry about. Most of the decisions from the height of the liberal court are a laugh-riot.

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21 Posted by guest | Permalink Friday, July 13, 2007 12:32 PM

What about Diane Wood?

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22 Posted by Learned Hand | Permalink Friday, July 13, 2007 12:38 PM

Tribester on da Bench ya huhr me?

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23 Posted by guest | Permalink Friday, July 13, 2007 12:47 PM

"Deval Patrick, in particular, hasn't been able to keep out of his own way ever since coming into office..."

Would you be referring to the Aqua Teen Hunger Force LED sign fiasco, maybe?

"ZOMGZOMG there are blinking signs all over Boston showing a space alien flipping the bird at us!!!!111oneoneeleventyone!!"

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24 Posted by Anon | Permalink Friday, July 13, 2007 12:48 PM

The F&J salary structure looks like it is market but only if you hit 1900 hours. Meaning that your salary is a little lower, but the 1900 hours bonus makes up the difference. Not a bad strategy. Is F&J going to raise at all in their home office - Houston - and the rest of Texas? What about V&E and Baker Botts? Are they raising in DC? In Texas?

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25 Posted by Mitt Romney | Permalink Friday, July 13, 2007 12:50 PM

Wishful thinking, all of you. Justices McConnell, Jones, and Easterbrook should start practicing for the hearings.

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26 Posted by guest | Permalink Friday, July 13, 2007 12:53 PM

http://www.theonion.com/content/node/37456'

Supreme Court Justices Devour Sandra Day O'Connor In Ancient Ritual

July 27, 2005 | Issue 41•30

WASHINGTON, DC—The eight remaining justices of the Supreme Court met in chambers Monday to feast on the living flesh of retiring Justice Sandra Day O'Connor, enacting an ancient tradition that began when the first chief justice of the Supreme Court retired and was summarily consumed in 1795.

Although the most important cannibalistic ceremony in American jurisprudence is closed to outsiders, some details of the ritual are inscribed within the High Court Scrolls. The scrolls, written in human blood and stored in the Justice Library Reading Room, have been studied by only a handful of legal scholars.

"Chief Justice William H. Rehnquist almost certainly consumed the greater part of O'Connor's brain and heart prior to the ritual feeding, in a rite believed to grant him the knowledge, wisdom, and courage of the devoured," said American University law professor Donald Hewett. "Any portions of O'Connor's brain and heart that Rehnquist refused would have been consumed by the remaining justices within minutes, as they chanted passages from her seminal opinions."

Hewett said the first woman appointed to the Supreme Court was gutted, strung up, and "drained into stone goblets from which her blood was sipped like wine."

"This quaffing of blood is traditionally accompanied by much singing and drumming," Hewett said.

If the ritual was performed in accordance with the court scrolls, O'Connor's body was then laid upon a traditional brass bier and borne up a five-story marble staircase to a consecrated inner sanctum, where clerks skewered the raw meat on wooden spits. Late into the evening, the Supreme Court justices feasted on the renowned federalist by torchlight.

"The ceremony is said to be quite moving," said Zachary Katz, editor of the Yale Law Review. "By consuming O'Connor's mortal body, the other justices seek a communion with her transcendent qualities—her respect for the discretion of the court, her pragmatism, and her refusal to commit to abstract legal principles."

O'Connor has been prepared for the ritual since January 2005, when Chief Justice Rehnquist sprinkled her desk with the ashes of a virgin law clerk and pronounced, "Receptum, receptum, receptum."

Tuesday evening, Rehnquist emerged from the 17-foot-tall, 13-ton bronze sliding doors of the Supreme Court building's west entrance and addressed those who had gathered in the oval pavilion.

"Hear us, Justice," said Rehnquist, wearing a necklace of human bones and an elaborate headdress adorned with yak horns. "In the abiding name of Jurisprudence we consumed her; in the eternal name of Law was she eaten; and as her flesh does become our flesh, so her wisdom shall become our wisdom, yea, through all time everlasting."

According to legal scholars, O'Connor's skin will be tanned and sewn into a ceremonial cloak, to be worn by the youngest justice, Clarence Thomas, as he lights the pyre upon which members of O'Connor's senior staff are burned alive.

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27 Posted by guest | Permalink Friday, July 13, 2007 1:14 PM

11:59a - that's the only bonus policy.

12:48p - There's been no word on a raise at the home office or at BB or V&E; Fulbright appears to be the first of the big three Texas firms to raise in D.C.

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28 Posted by anonymous | Permalink Friday, July 13, 2007 1:21 PM

I think Goldstein is overthinking. The first pick doesn't have to be female and Hispanic. I think it'll likely be a woman or a minority, and probably a woman. If it's not a minority woman, then the next pick will likely be a minority. I'm not sure I'd put Wardlaw ahead of a Diane Wood or Elena Kagan. Not sure why Kagan gets the third slot ahead of Wood in Goldstein's mind -- maybe age? Wood's been floating on shorter speculative short lists for a while.

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29 Posted by guest | Permalink Friday, July 13, 2007 1:25 PM

1253: GREAT find. I can't believe I missed it.

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30 Posted by Anonymous | Permalink Friday, July 13, 2007 1:33 PM

12:00: that's idiotic.

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31 Posted by guest | Permalink Friday, July 13, 2007 1:37 PM

Why is Souter forecasted to depart in 2009? Is it common knowlege that he wants out as soon as there is a Democrat in office to name his successor?

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32 Posted by Anonymous | Permalink Friday, July 13, 2007 1:38 PM

12:53: That makes me sick. I wanna like it, but it just makes me sick.

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33 Posted by Why? | Permalink Friday, July 13, 2007 1:39 PM

I have a question: Why Wardlaw? Someone explain, please.

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34 Posted by i heart mr burns | Permalink Friday, July 13, 2007 1:43 PM

The appropriate term to indicate someone who acheives Sclia-like ersults in the exact opposite direction is "bizarro Scalia," not "anti-Scalia,"

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35 Posted by i heart mr burns | Permalink Friday, July 13, 2007 1:43 PM

The appropriate term to indicate someone who acheives Scalia-like results in the exact opposite direction is "bizarro Scalia," not "anti-Scalia."

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36 Posted by guest | Permalink Friday, July 13, 2007 1:51 PM

And then there's the question of the Ersatz Scalia. But I suppose we already have Justice Thomas.

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37 Posted by pj | Permalink Friday, July 13, 2007 1:52 PM

As Scalia has been an utter failure in putting together a right wing coalition due the fact that he is a flaming asshole, I don't think the dems want another scalia.

Another Brennan who could charm Kennedy to come on over to the left side where the people are nicer would be a much smarter pick.

And I'll note that Bush may have finally found the right wing answer to Brennan with Roberts.

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38 Posted by guest | Permalink Friday, July 13, 2007 2:00 PM

I CANNOT believe that Goldstein even utterred Johnnie Rawlinson's name!!! Was he joking?

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39 Posted by ANSWER THIS | Permalink Friday, July 13, 2007 2:24 PM

"Why is Souter forecasted to depart in 2009? Is it common knowlege that he wants out as soon as there is a Democrat in office to name his successor?"

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40 Posted by guest | Permalink Friday, July 13, 2007 2:28 PM

My respect for Goldstein just disappeared. Wardlaw? Rawlinson?

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41 Posted by anon | Permalink Friday, July 13, 2007 2:37 PM

Forget diversity, what about T-Gold in '09? Can't get much younger and still be credible.

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42 Posted by guest | Permalink Friday, July 13, 2007 3:30 PM

Wardlaw is not an intellectual heavyweight (vs. Kagan, Garland, Wood). And Rawlinson votes with the conservatives on the 9th Circuit 80+% of the time.

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43 Posted by anon | Permalink Friday, July 13, 2007 3:34 PM

I feel pretty in the know as a Court-watcher and I have NEVER heard a peep of an early Souter retirement. It's always Stevens or Ginsburg. So if anyone has some scoop, please share. You'd think Goldstein would have explained it. I also agree with the why Wardlaw. She doesn't have a great rep. And Deval Patrick. Oh god no. That's laughable.

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44 Posted by guest | Permalink Friday, July 13, 2007 3:35 PM

"There isn't a person alive who can match Scalia's intellectual prowess."

Please. "Intellectual prowess"? In the service of what? The wealthy and entrenched?

I don't care how intellectual he makes his arguments, he always gets it wrong. And that's what counts.

Calling Scalia a great mind is like calling someone a great football player because he's fast, even though he always ends up in the wrong end zone.

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45 Posted by anonymous | Permalink Friday, July 13, 2007 3:52 PM

Granholm: Canadian turned third-world economic despot turned SCOTUS justice? Seems right.

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46 Posted by Oh God, not her! | Permalink Friday, July 13, 2007 4:01 PM

Wardlaw's a complete loose cannon. Ask anyone who clerked in the 9th Circuit.

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47 Posted by anyone who clerked in the 9th Circuit | Permalink Friday, July 13, 2007 4:12 PM

Actually, someone just asked me, and I don't remember. All I know is that it was full of fruits and nuts.

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48 Posted by zydeco | Permalink Friday, July 13, 2007 4:41 PM

Pam Karlan would be an exceptionally good choice. Academic queen with a great deal of spunk.

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49 Posted by Oxy Moron | Permalink Friday, July 13, 2007 5:25 PM

"conservatives on the 9th circuit"

*snicker*

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50 Posted by guest | Permalink Friday, July 13, 2007 5:43 PM

it seems like the anti-scalia would be someone who believes that, yes, it IS the court's job to decide this issue.

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51 Posted by AMK | Permalink Friday, July 13, 2007 10:24 PM

Diane Wood all the way. She is the ultimate anti-Scalia. Not to mention kinda cute for her age.

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52 Posted by anon | Permalink Friday, July 13, 2007 11:28 PM

The anti-Scalia, ideaologically, would be Reinhardt. Similar 'I-woke-up-on-this-side-of-the-bed-so-how-am-I-going-to-justify-this-decision' attitude, but diametrically opposed in ideology.

Also, If I was picking a female 9th Circuit judge to move up, I'd take Rymer over Wardlaw in a second.

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53 Posted by guest | Permalink Saturday, July 14, 2007 2:20 AM

Except Rymer isn''t anywhere close to liberal. And a republican appointee. Wardlaw is a moron, but at least left of center. Why would a dem appoint Rymer, a conservative? Clear thought process genius.

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54 Posted by anonymous | Permalink Saturday, July 14, 2007 1:10 PM

The anti-Scalia is not Reinhardt. Scalia's much more principled that Reinhardt. Reinhardt is probably the anti-Edith Jones. I'd say Breyer's much more the anti-Scalia.

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55 Posted by Reader | Permalink Saturday, July 14, 2007 7:36 PM

Diane Wood or Karen Nelson Moore would be great picks, if slightly above T-Gold's age criterion.

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56 Posted by Rover | Permalink Sunday, July 15, 2007 4:08 PM

To the commenter who compared Scalia to an NFL player in the wrong end zone:
Your argument is logically flawed. We could all objectively

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57 Posted by Rover | Permalink Sunday, July 15, 2007 4:12 PM

We could all objectively agree that this player had scored a TD in the incorrect end zone. Whether Scalia "always gets it wrong," on the other hand, is a matter of opinion. BTW, did Scalia "get it wrong" in Hamdi? Gonzalez-Lopez? Texas v. Johnson? Peguero?
I doubt somehow that you'll think that he "got it wrong" in all (or any) of those cases.

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58 Posted by Justice For All | Permalink Monday, July 16, 2007 8:44 AM

Judge Boyce Martin (6th) would also be a great pick. My personal favorite - his opinion quoting "The New Colossus":
"Give me your tired, your poor,
Your huddled masses yearning to breathe free,
The wretched refuse of your teeming shore,
Send these, the homeless, tempest-tost to me,
I lift my lamp beside the golden door!"
If I recall correctly, it was an immigration opinion...

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59 Posted by Head in the Clouds | Permalink Monday, July 16, 2007 2:02 PM

Wait a minute. Harold Koh isn't already on the Supreme Court? He sure seems to think he is.

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60 Posted by google | Permalink Monday, July 16, 2007 2:54 PM

duncan kennedy

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61 Posted by nyu eagle | Permalink Thursday, July 19, 2007 2:17 PM

jeremy waldron

put that it your pipes and smoke it

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