Partnership Prospects: Open Thread and Featured Job Survey

It’s the end of the year, and the partnership announcements are trickling in. Some are being made externally, on law firm websites. Others are being made internally, with external announcements to follow in January.
Although many of them are sent to us, a specific firm’s partnership announcement isn’t typically of interest to us (unless there’s something independently interesting about the person making partner — drop us a line a few years from now, when Aquagirl or Loyola 2L makes partner). But we are interested in what people think generally about partnership prospects these days. So here is an open thread for discussion of the subject.
To kick off the discussion, here’s a tip we received about Paul Weiss, which recently announced its new partners:

You should do an open thread about associates who have been told year after year that they were “on track” and then were totally screwed and passed over for partner. For example, for the second year in a row, Paul Weiss passed over people who were the “shoe-ins” for partner and told for years that they would make it. Two of the most egregious examples in the past two years involve women. Both women are extremely talented and have outstanding track records so it came as a complete shock to the associates. In fact, as a female mid-level associate, it makes me think, why the hell am I staying here?

(We contacted the firm for comment, but they did not get back to us.)
We’re also curious about how many associate readers of ATL think they’ll make partner. So here is today’s featured survey, brought to you by ATL and Lateral Link:
Update: This survey is now closed. Click here for the results.

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