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The Cravath System and the Bi-modal Starting Salary Distribution (Or: Why some firms need to admit they can’t play with the big boys.)

Over at Empirical Legal Studies, Professor William Henderson has a must-read post, How the “Cravath System” Created the Bi-Modal Distribution. It’s lengthy but well worth your time, if you have any interest whatsoever in the economics of large law firms and law as a business. Henderson analyzes the peculiar bimodal distribution of lawyers’ starting salaries — it’s not a standard bell curve, but a distribution with two big spikes, one on the low end and one on the high end — and he explains the reasons for this.

There is really too much good stuff in the post to do it justice; read it in full here. At the risk of discouraging you from reading the complete post, which Dean Jim Chen of MoneyLaw deems “the most important blog post of the year,” here’s an excerpt:

Cravath Swaine Moore LLP Above the Law blog.JPG[T]he runaway $160K [starting salary] mode is a confluence of two factors: (1) the continued growth in the corporate legal services market, primarily due to the growing scale and scope of transnational corporate activity; and (2) law firms’ nearly universal adherence to the “Cravath system,” which purports to hire the best graduates from the best law schools and provide them with the best training.

The New York firm of Cravath Swaine & Moore created and refined this system during the early 20th century. The emphasis on educational credentials was initially an attempt to establish a distinctive brand of legal services that could differentiate the firm from other Wall Street competitors. Now, ironically, it has become a uniform industry practice utilized by every large law firm that claims to provide first-rate services.

Virtually all firms mimic the Cravath system without understanding its logic.

Read more, after the jump.

Professor Henderson continues:

[As] regional law firms morphed into the Am Law 200, their partners remained psychologically wedded to their own perceptions of eliteness. In the ensuing salary wars, these firms slavishly paid the prevailing rate rather than signaling to the market that the firm had become “second rate” (a term used by a Proskauer Rose partner in rationalizing the higher pay). In turn, the laws of supply and demand produced the bi-modal distribution.

Will this bimodal distribution persist? Is it economically sustainable for all Am Law 200 firms to pay like Cravath? Henderson doesn’t think so:

Based on a dataset of lateral partner mobility within the Am Law 2000, it is possible to tease out a relative hierarchy of practice areas. The table below, which covers the 2000 to 2005 time period, orders legal specialty by differential profits per equity partner (PPP) between the firm a partner left and the firm he or she joined.

[See fascinating chart of the practice area hierarchy / food chain, available in Henderson’s post.]

The trends are straightforward. Partners in marquee practices like white collar crime, securities enforcement, M&A, private equity, emerging markets, and intellectual property litigation are disproportionately moving upstream to more profitable firms. Partners specializing in regulatory compliance, real estate, public finance, project finance, and trust & estates are disproportionately moving downstream….

In the long-run, firms without a optimal mix of premium practice areas will have a hard time sticking with the Cravath system.

So what do they do? Henderson doesn’t say this explicitly, but we view the recent spate of associate layoffs, whether public or stealth, as a consequence of certain firms flying too close to the sun (read: Cravath), and falling to earth. Their partner profits aren’t high enough to allow them the luxury of having hordes of junior lawyers sitting around, all getting paid $160K or more, and not doing a lick of billable work. Cue the layoffs.

Here’s a great take on Bill Henderson’s research, from Bruce MacEwen, at Adam Smith, Esq.:

The bimodal distribution of starting lawyer salaries is not, economically speaking, an equilibrium condition. It will change.

The last great associate salary spike, from $125Kto $160K, took place roughly 18 months ago when times were flush. Even then, some firms began panting at the effort to keep up. (Recall that the instigator of that spike was Simpson Thacher, which didn’t have to raise its resting pulse to manage the spike.)

The next spike—I won’t predict when it will be but I will predict it will be to $200K—will leave a lot of firms crying “Uncle.” They will stop struggling to keep up with the receding red lights moving on down the highway. And it will be economically rational, geographically defensible, and culturally unifying.

Don’t expect $200,000 starting salaries anytime soon. “NY to 190,” while a nice rallying cry in the ATL comments (before the credit crunch), is not a realistic expectation right now.

Even the firms that are weathering the downturn well have no particular incentive to raise now. One could argue that today might be the perfect time for the Wachtells and Cravaths and S&Cs of the world to strike a death blow against “inferior” firms. But the “inferior” firms are having enough trouble as it stands; they don’t need to receive death blows in order to die.

We agree with the central point of Henderson and McEwen. If you’re not Cravath — if your profits per partner are not over $2 million, or even $1 million, and you’re not a major player in the premium practice areas — why try to pretend that you are? Why not pick up your bat and glove, and go play in a different ball field?

P.S. Don’t forget — to read more, including underlying data and a wealth of charts, go to Henderson’s original post. Great stuff.

Also check out the links collected below, commenting on Henderson’s work.

Update: Thoughts on Henderson’s research, from Professor Larry Ribstein, appear over at Ideoblog. An excerpt:

Bill’s paper proposes a solution that emphasizes the value of training lawyers. I’m sympathetic with that approach, but I wonder whether it completely deals with the problem. The bimodal distribution may reflect a basic talent disparity between top law students and other law graduates that matters in the increasingly sophisticated, intellectual, and policy-oriented high end of law practice. Training can accomplish a lot, but not everything. I am not asserting this as a fact, simply an alternative hypothesis that needs to be considered.

How the “Cravath System” Created the Bi-Modal Distribution [Empirical Legal Studies]
The Bi-Modal Starting Salary Distribution [Adam Smith, Esq.]
The Blog Post of the Year [MoneyLaw]
The Cravath System and the Demise of Large Firm Business as We Know It [Legal Blog Watch]
Henderson on the bimodal distribution of entry level salaries [Ideoblog]

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