first

These pretzels are making me firsty!

Ellie must go. Useless.

Obama, 364-174. He takes every state Kerry won, plus NV, NM, CO, MO, OH, FL, NH, NC, and VA.

President-Elect Obama

McCain/Palin with 274 EVs

McCain/Palin with 274 EVs

Obama wins and we all lose. McCain wins and we all lose. The real question is the magnitude of loss with each candidate (sort of like what's worst a kick in the nuts or a kick in the pole). Boy, it sure is good to be us.

The call me ad was not racist. It was just stupid and it hurt Corker who was winning by double-digits at the time and ended up winning by less than five points.

As for the Bradley myth, that has already been debunked. Bradley, lost the absentee vote.

This election is Obama's and by over 300 electoral votes.

I had the same thought as 1 which is certainly a FIRST

There are 7 key states in play for McCain, which are: Florida, Georgia, Missouri, Indiana, Montana, Ohio, and North Carolina.

If McCain drops ANY of those states, it's impossible to come up with any chance of him winning (realistically). Now he's not guaranteed victory even if he wins all of them, but he does need to win all of them to have a chance.

Obama with 352 EVs: Of the 11 states "in play" he will take PA, VA, FL, OH, MO, ND, CO and NV.

You heard it here FIRST!!

I think we all know McCain is going to win every state, including the states with polls currently strongly favoring Obama.

McCain will also win Canada.

Great analysis, Elie. Now even the polls are racist. Not because they're anti-Obama, but because they're...*too* Obama...

So either way it's racist.

What do you want, Affirmative Action for the White House, too?

I agree with 9. To cite that great Simpsons episode:

"It makes no difference which one of us you vote for. Either way, your planet is doomed. DOOMED!"

i predict i will defy all expectations and secure 1 firm sa offer before the end of january.

-nervous T-10 1L
email job leads to nervoust101l@yahoo.com

ps obama 341 - mccain 197. obama wins nv, co, nm, nd, oh, ia, va, fl, nh

No Bradely effect, but GOP voters may be less likely to respond to polling questions, distorting the sample. Most pollsters admit there has been an increase in those declining to respond, but there isn't any information as to whether that group is distributed evenly. We do know that GOP voters were 6% less likely to participate in exit polls in 2004, and the effect may greater and involve more types of polls this year.

353-185

D: PA, OH, VA, NC, FL, NV, CO
R: IN, MO, ND, MT

How many electoral votes does the Taliban get? McCain's chances hinge on this.

Take the Under.

Obama 319 (All Kerry '04 states plus NM, CO, NV, VA, FL, IA, and Rep. Lee Terry's district in NE), McCain 219.

Senate Democrats pick up 7 seats: VA, CO, NM, OR, NH, AK, and one of the following two: NC/MN. GA goes to runoff with Chambliss at 48.9%, Martin 48%.

House Democrats add 25 net seats. Murtha, Kanjorski, Mahoney, Lampson, and one other incumbent Dem lose. Both Diaz-Balart's lose in FL, Bachmann in MN likewise, and Trauner wins in WY by less than 3,000 votes.

Bonus prediction: FRAT STUD appointed Deputy Assistant Secretary of Education in the new Obama administration.

McCain will win it by a nosehair.

Former Thelen partner Tom Glascock (aka Glass Cock) here, predicting that whatever happens with the vote tomorrow, the Washington Monument will never be referred to as "that glass cock made of stone in the middle of the mall".

atomicpapa sez: Obama 381 as he demonstrates his ability to run a a $700MM corporation (his campaign) by out-organizing both of the two largest political machines ever (the Clintons and the Rovians)--in the same year.

It's over early and McCain voters don't bother, leaving MT and ND to fall into the Obama column. AZ close enough for a recall, but no one cares.

Guys in my high school used to cheer for DBs like Obama all the time, it was no big deal. DBs are attracted to DBs,

Tom GlassKAWK here, saying, it ain't over until the chunky-chinned one eats all the ring dings.

I am Tom GlassKAWK and I approve this massage. Yes, massage, you grammar fairies.

er, "McCain voters *in the west* don't bother"
and, "close enough for a *recount*

All I want is for NO ONE to get the majority 270 votes needed to win. Throwing it to the House would REALLY be history in the making (it would be the first time in 184 years).

Also you'd have to think that since the top 3 vote getters get into the House vote, faithless electors would pop up to vote someone else into such an election, perhaps Nader, Gore, Jindhal, etc, etc...who knows.

That would be fun. Just having a simple winner in this horrible two-party system? NOT FUN AT ALL.

15, he didn't call the polls racist, you idiot.

If I were a hiring partner (I'm a 2nd year associate) I would not hire any clerks from T10 law schools for the next two years just to make sure that I did not hire Nervous T-10 1L (in case he really is a 2L).

I highly recommend any hiring partners that read my comment do the same.

(I pick 342 for Obama)

29: Totally agree.

I want 269-269 or something of the sort, and then, with McCain electors realizing he will certainly lose in the House, many McCain electors change their vote to Ralph Nader to make it such that House delegations can choose between Obama, McCain, and Nader. Ralph Nader could then win on a compromise through various state delegations (remember in the house election for pres, it's one state, one vote).

The Senate only gets to chose from the top two VP vote getters, and they'd still elect Joe Biden, their guy.

So welcome President Elect Nader and, VP Elect BIden!

T-10 1L to Sterns and Montana

I predict McCain upset wins in OH, PA, FL, and VA---with a McCain 273 net electoral win.

Biden's: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7rXyTRT-NZg and Obama's recent anti-coal comments
give me hope in OH, PA, and VA.

McCain/Palin either 281 or 260. PA is the difference. FL, VA, OH, IN all break McCain.

My predictions:

Obama - PA, NC, FL, IN, CO
McCain - VA, OH, MO, ND, MT, NV

Proposition 8 in California - EPIC FAIL

Nervous T-10 1L - Are you interested in staying in Michigan for your 1L summer? If so, look west, to Grand Rapids (just far enough from Chicago not to be a suburb).

Abortions for all!

Seconding 30's comment. 15 you are a fucktard.

This is 36 - as a follow-up, final tally is 307-231 for Obama. Ohio goes to McCain but he still loses, Ohio becomes widely ignored and reviled by politicians.

37: why grand rapids? i know of one firm that hires 1L's there (varnum), are there others?

-nervous T-10 1L
email job leads to nervoust101l@yahoo.com

Montana, don't get too used to the spotlight. After the election, I'm taking over.

Signed,
nervous T7 midwest state

Will there be riots if Obama loses?

This is moronic. Like we really need a place for MORE useless coverage of useless polls and predictions about this race? Come on.

At least make it about lawyers, suits or trials. Like... will Ted Stevens win tomorrow? After all, according to him, he's not yet been convicted of anything.

32: Interesting scenario. I actually think those McCain electors who would change their vote to Nader might change their VP vote to McCain, such that the Senate is forced to chose between Biden and McCain, not Biden and Palin.

So welcome President-Elect (Finally) Ralph Nader, and Vice President-Elect John McCain!

41: There are 4 (or more), Varnum, Warner, Miller Johnson, Barnes & Thornburg. Between these 4, I would guess there are 10-15 1L spots available.

Nervous: There are at least 4 -- Varnum, Miller Johnson, Barnes & Thornburg, and Warner. I'd guess 10-15 spots between these 4 will go to 1Ls.

271 - 267 with McCain winning after losing Pennsylvania and Virginia. He takes California after Proposition 8.

46/47 here, I can never figure out if my posts post.

45 and others re: no majority tomorrow:

Totally agree that McCain/Palin electors would have to do something to pull out a win, or keep Obama from winning.

Perhaps McCain/Palin electors could do something radical such as vote for Hillary Clinton for President, McCain for VP.

Hillary probably beats out Obama in the House vote, McCain probably win the Senate Vote.

So President Hill-dog, VP McCain, true coalition government.

And of course, there is always Ron Paul. Many McCain people could throw their vote to Ron Paul.

48 - the day McCain takes California is the day that we sell Alaska back to the Russians and Lousiana back to the French.

43. Yes, for two reasons:

1.) The only way for McCain to win is by cheating.

2.) Black people are crazy.

50 - From your mouth to God's ears! Clinton-McCain is my dream ticket. I actually voted for Clinton today (early voting in CA) as a write-in.

Of course, the only reason I voted at all was to vote NO on Prop 8 in California.

All CA people - please please go vote, Obama may not need it, but please don't let the Yes on Prop 8 morons win!

49 = Trig Palin

McCain at 294. Chicago erupts into flames, hopefully killing t10 1L. If not, well, there's several more cities to go.

America loses. No matter which way this election goes. Because in America, greedy fucktards are still permitted to vote.

Trig Palin to 307.

Barama to huge ears and blue lips. Damn, dat boy went full ugly on that one.

Trig Palin "A Change America Needs"

Vote Big for Trig!

Obama 353 - 185 McCain

O: OH, PA, VA, NC, FL, NV

M: MO, IN

www.electoral-vote.com

Californians please vote yes on Prop 2 - thank moo!

The idiot who wrote Clinton in calling someone else a moron ... priceless

338 - Obama
200 - McCain

As a SMU grad I must conclude that you are all idiots.

Say hi to your mother for me.

SMU ALUM

I am a bisexual. I hope that very soon it will be legal in California for me to marry one man and one woman (or maybe two of each). That is why I am voting no on Prop 8.

I predict a five point bounce for Obama due to his grandmother's passing.

"Kash is not a lawyer, barely a journalist, and definitely not a political pundit"

...replace "Kash" with "Elie Mystal", drop the word "barely" and you have the only correct prediction of the night

385-153 Obama.

O = Kerry + VA, NC, GA, FL, OH, IA, MO, ND, MT, CO, NM, NV.

The problems with politics isn't really the issues being discussed. Rather, the problem is the way the party members act toward each other. Some Republicans and Democrats support their respective parties and interact with each other in a similar way to Texas and Oklahoma football fans. For evidence of this see posts 20, 26, and 55 - and any other politically motivated internet page where comments are allowed.

Obama will not win VA. Sorry.

Has there ever been a Jewish president?

Mccain takes Ohio, Florida, Missouri, North Carolina, North Dakota, Montana, and Indiana. Obama takes Virginia, Colorado, Pennsylvania, and Nevada. Obama wins overall, but more narrowly than expected.

Hey 60 - why does writing in Clinton make me an idiot?

I am voting in a state where Obama's win is a foregone conclusion, and I want to let the Democratic party know that they would have had my vote if Clinton had been their nominee. Heck, they would have had my vote if Obama picked Clinton as his VP. I am just not excited about the Obama/Biden ticket.

Or do you just hate Clinton and think everyone who supports her is an idiot? In which case, suck it.

69 - You're kidding, right?

Cthulu/Mystal '08 - Which emanation of pure evil will devour the other first ?

Obama takes (in order of likelihood):
Kerry states + IA + NM + CO + VA + NV + OH + NC.

NC only because he was ahead more when early voting started. Not FL because bad stuff always happens in FL. VA is ahead of NV because VA was even more for OBama a few weeks ago when early voting started.

He will lose MO and IN. IN is the least likely of his pick ups.

Obama = 326.

69 - You're kidding, right?

69, Lincoln was a Jew. Exhibit A: Lincoln's Sefirah beard.

69 - everyone knows that Honest Abe's other nickname was the Big Jew

Well, I believe I'll vote for a third-party candidate.

Lincoln was not a Jew. He was too honest!

There's absolutely no way either candidate takes OH, FL, and PA. Obama does not take NC. McCain with 274 in an election that will be bitched about and conspiracy theoried for years to come.

69 - everyone knows that Honest Abe's other nickname was the Big Jew

The reason Lincoln's name was Big Jew was he had a cock the size of Henny Youngman's. Mary Todd's First Tuchus went "OY !" more than once...

If my friends respected me simply for being smarter than you, I'd lose all my respect for my friends.

Also: Elie, explain how you believe in the Bradley effect (notice no dash...wtf was the dash in there for?) and still predict that Obama will win Indiana? It's a rustbelt state, MADE for the Bradley-effect, and McCain is currently ahead in all relevant polls and on Pollster.com, which is the only relevant poll (of polls).

Obama - 349, McCain, 189.

Vote YES on Proposition 8!

Get out and vote for McCain/Palin - Country FIRST!

McCain has about as much hope as he has offered Americans during this campain = 0

Former Thelen partner Tom Glascock (aka Glass Cock) here, asking 82 to stop making veiled references to the cut glass cock of Indiana's favorite son.

Obama wins by a stupid Alaskan.

So, 84, are you voting Yes on 8 because you're a bigot, because you are brainwashed by your religious leader, or because of a paralyzing fear that you will get confused and accidentally marry someone of the same gender?

I assume it's one of the foregoing, because it's certainly not the result of rational analysis.

I predict Sarah Palin will be indicted for fraud in the case of the per diems unearned, the 150K in campaign funds converted to personal use, and will be forced to reimburse the taxpayers of Alaska for the travel her children weren't invited on.

She will also be charged for using campaign funds for personal use and carbon waste when she flies to Alaska tomorrow to cast her vote in Wasilla (instead of securing an absentee ballot like she should have (stupid political photo ops)) and then flies to Arizona to watch McSame issue his concession speech.

Dumb campaign, dumb tactics, and a waste of the foreign oil we're so heavily dependent upon.

I'm voting yes on 8 because the domestic partner law gives all the rights of marriage. Suck it at the federal level.

No way in hell ND is going to Obama... I'm from there, trust me. Most likely North Dakotans are lying to pollsters because they like the attention of being a toss-up state. ND is desperate for attention. See, e.g., plan to change name from "North Dakota" to "Dakota." Pure publicity stunt to get attention from the national media, even if it's for 10 minutes.

Those who think McCain is going to win either don't believe in polling etc. or thing the big-bad liberal media has fabricated the polls. And by big-bad liberal media I am including our friends at Fox News.

And by the way, even Karl Rove is projecting 338-200 at rove.com .

92 here,
338-200 obama that is.

52 I'm not black but if the Republicans commit fraud for the third time (fraud in factum in factum in factum) I live in DC and will be in the streets shouting "Fraud in Factum means Democracy took it in the rectum" and attacking older white male Republicans at random.

- Tom Glass-crock

Little known fact - Bill Clinton was also the first jewish president...hence the $1.6 trillion dollar surplus (just a friendly joke).

AZ goes blue!

95, former Thelen partner Tom Glascock (aka Glass Cock) here, demanding that you cease taking the glass cock in vein (or any other body part)

Obama/Biden 317.

Nobama wins it 297-241

Nobama - VA, PA, NV, CO, NM
Mac Attack - FL, OH, GA, NC, IN, MO

Dems fall short of the filibuster proof Senate.

If McCain somehow pulls it off buy, borrow or steal a handgun and lock your door as an enraged Michael Moore will morph into something resembling the Marshmallow Man from Ghostbusters and go on a cross-country rampage.

Bill Clinton is Jewish?

Redskins are leading....could this mean a McCain win. However, Obama won the Weekly Reader poll. One of the two most reliable predictors of presidential elections may fall tomorrow.

"Lat's map looks just like George Will's. He gives PA, VA, FL, and OH all to Obama. He does thinks Obama is tilting at windmills in the land of Hoosiers though."

Wow. 100 posts and no one noticed this. Focus people. Focus!

Obama/Biden: CA IL NY NJ MA DE VT IA OR HI

McCain/Palin: Everything else.

Rioting ensues.

Three firm predictions.

(1) McCain wins.

(2) For the next four years, we are all lectured about how racists held Barack down.

(3) Elie still sucks.

Obama/Biden 311 Electoral Votes.

Kerry states + IA + NM + CO + VA + NV + OH.

Obama generally underperforms polls (~1.5% or so) but wins comfortably.

The editors would just like to be beaten...bad editors...BAD EDITORS!

What does "Country First" even mean? Obama wins. He will receive 300 EV. Question is: Will there be any electoral college voter who will defect?

Anyone else think Barack killed his grandma to get some sympathy votes?

http://sec.online.wsj.com/article/SB122515067227674187.html

Has any electoral college voters ever not voted with the popular vote of their state? What are the ramifications?

How about everyone stops assuming that Obama voters are savage criminals who will riot if they don't get their way? If that's who's backing him then I'm for McCain. But I'd like to think the Obama voters can lose with grace if it doesn't work out for them.

I will be happy to accept and wear proudly any "NOT MY PRESIDENT" t-shirts after Obama is inaugurated.

31 - I'm a hiring partner (V15) and I actually like nevous T10 1L. His(?) comments are a breath of fresh air. I'd hire him if not for my concern that he would spend his summer on the internet.