you think this is FUNNY???? are we some kinda clowns to you, Elie???? This is ARE FUTURE! not a laughing matter.

this poll is screwed up, can vote multiple times for some entries.

The ship be sinking...

for all dese firms.

2 - You wrote "THIS IS ARE FUTURE". You had better learn to spell better than this or you will have no future in law.

2 - You wrote "THIS IS ARE FUTURE". You had better learn to spell better than this or you will have no future in law.

You cut me bitch,

You cut me deep.

I would look for Jones Day to make a deep run. Very stable firm and doing quite well these days.

This is a preview of what is to come for Latham in the Vault ranking.

All your base our belong to us!

This is stupid.

PS more like March Sadness

We've got some Ropes trolls on this poll...nothing better to do than camp out and vote Ropesies?

Who says Latham isn't safe? I'd say they are pretty safe since there already have been massive cuts. It's the non v5 firms that haven't had cuts yet that I'd be the most worried about.

WILLKIE FARR & GALLAGHER!!

The sleeper of all law firms. Extremely well run.

Gibson Dunn = Gonzaga

Consistently underrated, relatively small, solid leadership.

Latham = Wisconsin

Terrible.

Ropes is vastly underrated by Vault. Its about as competitive as Kirkland.

QUINN REMAINS

If Paul Weiss doesn't win then this thing is bs

14: The facts say Latham isn't safe.

a) Stealth layoffs
b) Announced mass layoffs (including lots of 1st years)
c) Plummeting PPP
d) Pay freeze
e) Shortened summer

Putting Latham in there seems unnecessarily cruel after they've already fired 500+ people just since January, many as completely trumped up "performance" dismissals. Most lawyers or soon-to-be-lawyers couldn't BE drunk enough to accept a job there at this point if they had another option.

15, I agree Willkie is very well run and a great place to work, but the associates are NOT as hot as everybody says. Trust me.

What about Fulbright & Jaworski. I would have thought they made it to the playoffs. Major firm, no layoffs, soft hiring freeze...

Could be DPW haters rather than Ropes trolls. That said, choosing between the two, I'd think Ropes is safer.

What about Fulbright & Jaworski. I would have thought they made it to the playoffs. Major firm, no layoffs, soft hiring freeze...

What about Fulbright & Jaworski. I would have thought they made it to the playoffs. Major firm, no layoffs, soft hiring freeze...

No real secret that Davis Polk, Simpson and Latham are all on official Deathwatch. No joke.

Jones Day all the way on his one...

As a former Fulbright associate, I can't believe they did not make this list. They are doing much better than most.

Not to mention this is a stupid idea anyway.

What about Fulbright & Jaworski? I would have thought they'd make it to the playoffs. Big Law, no layoffs, soft hiring freeze... I am in the Houston office and so far so good.

5 and 6 - way to get flamed you idiot.

are you freaking shitting me? Which firms are the safest? How about you NOT include those firms that have done lay-offs dipshit! How about including some of the lower vault firms that are SAFE? White and Case??? Latham??? How about Vinson & Elkins, or Fulbright or other firms THAT HAVENT DONE LAYOFFFSSSS!!!!!

How can you rank Latham 7? Are you doing nothing more than putting their vault rankings next to them? Then this isnt a safest firm ranking, its a vault ranking!

This is retarded!

We should have an official death pool of law firms: which one will be the next to fail?

Gibson v Wilmer in the first round is gonna be a close race.

Smell the rot?

Retarded

PSA Wilmer Hale, not Cutler.

32 = TTT at low ranked Vault firm

If this is a real safety poll, shouldn't it be based on firms that haven't done public or widely publicized stealth layoffs? I'm not sure if there are 32 Vault 100 firms that haven't, but if so they should be the ones competing.

Latham is the safest because the layoffs and corrections are over. All the other firms are not safe and they are trying to hide the tip of the iceberg with an ocean of water.

Friends don't let friends summer at Latham.

There is a good chance that in 2010 DPW will no longer exist. Already in the death throes frankly. I don't think a lot of people realize how dire things are over at 450.

Latham vs. Linklaters is a terrific first-round matchup. The committee did a fantastic job of pairing two firms with similar apparent weaknesses. I don't know if I'd call the Magic Circle a mid-major conference, but this has the appearance of a slumping BCS school vs. a rebuilding year Gonzaga team. Paradoxically, it is the low turnover margin for these firms that has hurt them this year. Could go down to the wire...

The safest firms are the small powerhouses - Wachtell in NY, W&C in DC, I&M and Munger in LA. Too bad they receive so little coverage in here.

43:

BCS applies to football, Gonzaga is the perennial sleeper basketball pick. You mixed your analogies and belied your typical law student ignorance of athletics. Go back to the library.

yeah elie, i like the idea but you should've included small elite firms like 44 mentioned. i would take w&c, susman, or munger over any of these firms except for maybe wachtell.

-nervous T-10 1L
soon to be nervous 1L sa

Lol @ 43 trying to make sports analogies. Yeah, this whole tournament is just like the Omaha March Madness presented by Citi...

Cahill---no debt, homegrown, flexible practice area assignments, solid litigation practice.

Agreed -- tournament should involve only firms that haven't had lay-offs, with the winner being the one least-likely to conduct them.

I mean, really, "safest"!? Safest *what*? Safest to work? Safest not to implode? Most days without an accident????

These firms are all safer than everyone thinks because the Dow is up and the recession is a thing of the past.

Wow no Foley? Probably the safest "big" firm around--Boer is going around the media round table talking up its stability. No way Foley will do truely massive layoffs after all the positive press its been getting. (note that I am not saying that no layoffs will occur, just not a huge one)

Wachtell & PW -- no question

Wachtell & PW -- no question

Joke of a competition....Many firms were left out that are probably safer than 95% of the firms listed here, such as:

Irell & Manella

Munger Tolls

Susman

Quinn Emanual

Joke of a competition....Many firms were left out that are probably safer than 95% of the firms listed here, such as:

-Irell & Manella

-Munger Tolls

-Susman

-Quinn Emanual

I thought these mass layoffs had taught people that Vault PresTTTige ratings mean little...

Joke of a competition....Many firms were left out that are probably safer than 95% of the firms listed here, such as:

-Irell & Manella

-Munger Tolls

-Susman

-Quinn Emanuel

I thought these mass layoffs had taught people that Vault PresTTTige ratings mean little...

What's an Irell, and a Munger? Never heard of them.

If you haven't heard of Irell or Munger then you're not a lawyer and you're not a very good law student either.

Munger and Irell are small (less than 300 attorneys) litigation-heavy shops in LA.

Both are wildly more selective than most of the V5 (with WLRK being the exception).

WTF, why didn't you include Hewlett-Packard?! I know this is a list of the top 32 law firms in Vault with no room for discretion, but I still think your decision to exclude this fine company shows bias and stupidity!

Hopefully, my firm will make the NIT

Woow--slow down Mr. Lat and the ATL community. Whose idea was to seed based on Vault rankings? You are missing out on 4 or 5 top notch Canadian firms which are all ultra safe---much much much (yes 3x repeated) that ANY US firm.

My vote is for anything Canadian.

-Bay Street is Awesome!

Gibson Dunn is run by an M.Acc/J.D. Executive Director. They have their shit in order - they're actually BUYING market share right now with all the cash their sitting on: http://abovethelaw.com/2009/02/gibson_dunn_gross_revenue_up_p.php

No layoffs. No pay freezes. Positive revenue and profit growth last year. They're hiring lateral partners and senior associates. Find me a comparable firm.

Gibson Dunn is run by an M.Acc/J.D. Executive Director. They have their shit in order - they're actually BUYING market share right now with all the cash their sitting on: http://abovethelaw.com/2009/02/gibson_dunn_gross_revenue_up_p.php

No layoffs. No pay freezes. Positive revenue and profit growth last year. They're actually hiring lateral partners and senior associates. Find me a comparable firm.

What about Hughes Hubbard/Patterson Belknap and other good (local) Biglaw that aren't in the useless top of the Vault! I would much rather be at Hughes Hubbard than at Paul Hastings!
Please have pity on pure mother Hubbard, and add a wildcard 32 firm bracket or something, and then combine!
Or maybe make it regional (separate 32 firm brackets, by amount of lawyers in Big East etc) and then have a showdown! You'll get more hits, as everyone wants to see their firm have a chance!
I love pretending i'm the editor! and ending all sentences with an exclamation point! I feel like Dick Vitale!

By rights, Jones Day ought to have a higher seed. There hasn't been a whisper of layoffs there and it looks to be expanding into the recession. (See recent Mexico City opening.) Still, Kirkland is a tough draw in the first round. It's not as if K&E is going anywhere.

where's Willkie?

basing the seeding based on vault rankings was kinda dumb, when so many of these firms have already had layoffs.

god this is boring.

it'd be fun maybe to compare 8 firms but this is just tedious.

firms on the Layoff List SHOULDN'T HAVE BEEN ELIGIBLE.

http://www.law.com/jsp/tal/PubArticleTAL.jsp?id=1202425647706

this is stupid.

Real march madness starts with 65, not a puny 32. We need more firms half of us have never heard of. Where's the George Mason and Boise State firms that beat the big schools in basketball and football?

The Elite 8 Will Be:

Gibson v Debevoise
Paul Weiss v Kirkland
Cravath v Covington
Williams & Connolly v Cleary

How is it that the two largest law firms in the world, Baker & McKenzie and DLA are not on this list? Are you people asleep??

How is it that the two largest law firms in the world, Baker & McKenzie and DLA are not on this list? Are you people asleep??

What the hell does safe mean? No layoffs in March? That is stupid because some of these (e.g. Latham) just did huge layoffs.

I'm actually a little surprised that Skadden is beating Mayer by so much.

Skadden has too many attorneys - it is going to get hit one of these days. While Mayer shed the 33 and lost all those partners, all has been quiet there, and they didn't cut bonuses in their non-NY offices. And didn't they just land those huge 2 privatization deals with Midway Airport and the Port of Virginia?

I have no stake in either firm, but I don't think Skadden is going to come through this unscathed, and Mayer looks like it just may have done what it needed to do at the right time. Who knows, but I think that one requires a little more analysis than it looks like people gave it.

--Dickstein Vitale

67 - agreed.

63: wasn't Arthur Anderson run by a M.Acc too? how are they doing?

-nervous T-10 1L
soon to be nervous 1L sa

69, why the hell not? The point is to judge CURRENT safety, to presumably aid future choices. The fact that there were past layoffs in no way ensures future layoffs - in fact in some cases having already trimmed the fact makes future layoffs less likely to be necessary.

That's like judging which airlines are the safest based upon which have crashed lately. Sure, it may indicate that they have lower safety standards, but it may just be a coincidence, and the backlash of the crash may actually ensure extra precautions to make them safer.

can none of you read the article? its based on vault. seriously. kill yourselves.

All dummies talking about who should have higher seeds, please note that the seeds come from Vault ranking. If you want your own seeds, start your own blog, otherwise please SU *leaving out "TF"*

this is pretty tasteless, even for ATL.

Um, I am at a firm that hasn't even hinted at layoffs (already mentioned in previous comments) and I still think this is about the dumbest exercise ever conceived.

So many DPW haters here. It is business as usual at DPW right now. In fact, the deal flow is great. DPW hasn't shortened its summer program or postponed its starting date. Suck it!

It's WilmerHale, Elie.

DPW had stealth layoffs though. For realsies.

The level of intelligence on display in this thread is enough to more than justify all of the layoffs.

FIRST to say not Orrick!!!!!

A&P to the final four!!

DPW probably was the firm who got the most bailout-related work. It may not have been worth the most fees, but still says a lot about how they are regarded at that level.

The merger was years ago. WilmerHale. Duh. Which, by the way, has not done any layoffs, the partners say no layoffs are being discussed, and profits were up last year.

Latham is uniquely HORRIBLY positioned to get through this. They expanded recklessly into corp/fin during the easy debt bubble, both by overbuilding their US offices, and by opening corp/fin shops abroad that are now DEAD.

And God help you if you're in NY. They were catching all the work that REAL ny corp shops were too busy to take. Once things slowed, companies went to the REAL ny firms with their work. Latham NY Lit is too small and doesn't have the reputation to get enough work to carry the office. Latham NY bankruptcy is practically non-existent.

Not to mention, after laying off 89 people in NY, there still isn't enough work there!

Folks, the ship be sinking.

This is hilarious. The voting results are proof of how law students (or lawyers) don't understand economics. It looks like it is purely based on the most recently released information. Linklaters may be in much worse shape going-forward (and therefore be less "safe") than Latham given they have yet to make the same necessary adjustments. The real question people need to ask themselves is how are firms positioned relative to business going-forward? Do they have strong bankruptcy practices or are they getting premium advisory business in this climate? Cravath and DPW may look like they were hit hard (shorter summers + stealth layoffs) but are they better positioned to still get the premium advisory work? Both Cravath and DPW have been doing high-profile business related to the subprime mess and will likely get even more residual business as the restructuring unfolds.

How on earth does Fried Frank get nearly 20% of the vote when they are more leveraged to high-cost associates and when competing against Cravath will lose almost every time? Same with DPW v. Ropes?

Go back and take econ 101 folks.

65:

One word: "local".

Come on, it is the one firm that made the layoffs when they needed to be made. That wasn't so caught up in pride and cared more for its survival. The firm that offered fair severance and helped its departed find new positions....

CADWALADER!

92 is right

While past layoffs suggest that some fat trimming has taken place, they IN NO WAY suggest that the firm is safer than those that haven't laid people off.

Layoffs show poor management and a willingness to cast people out rather than think creatively to try to save their employees (ie see those firms that have offered employees a year off in pro bono).

"The voting results are proof of how law students (or lawyers) don't understand economics."

Actually, the voting results are more likely to be evidence that law students and lawyers don't take online polls very seriously.

Also, 95 = 92.

92, no. Linklaters is better positioned than Latham because Linklaters didn't aggressively expand based on the debt bubble like Latham did.

Can you understand that firms all have to lay off the same number or % of people? For instance, Quinn hasn't laid off, does that mean LATHAM of all places is safer than Quinn?

It is YOU who does not get law firm econ.

92, no. Linklaters is better positioned than Latham because Linklaters didn't aggressively expand based on the debt bubble like Latham did.

Can you understand that firms don't all have to lay off the same number or % of people? For instance, Quinn hasn't laid off, does that mean LATHAM of all places is safer than Quinn?

It is YOU who does not get law firm econ.

What's the deal with Goldman and Cravath all of a sudden? Sure on a lot of deals together.

Covington will undoubtedly make the final 4. Sorry CravaTTTh trolls.

DPW is by no means in trouble. We just get a letter from the firm re our summer program. Everything looks fine and nothing indicates desperation or urgency. As the capital market starts picking up, the firm is well positioned to weather the storm.

Ropes & Gray is a great firm, but saying that it's safer than DPW in this economy is just unfathomable and beyond any imagination.

LOL at LaTTTham's EPIC fall from grace.

ALL YOUR BASE ARE BELONG TO WEIL!

I didn't realize there were any Cravath trolls on this blog.

Jones Day should should at least make the Final Four.

Jones Day should should at least make the Final Four.

Latham CONVENIENTLY made vault surveys due the day before the mass layoffs.

92 here. 99 displays the lack of understanding I tried to highlight but combines it with a lack of basic reading skills too. I said to look at their business models going-forward. Asking about Quinn v. Latham is not the same comparison as Latham v. Linklaters because of the nature of Quinn's practice area. Latham v. Linklaters, on the other hand, is a fair comparison and I would suggest Linklaters followed the asset bubble up as much as any firm. In some ways, Linklaters may be MORE vulnerable due to reliance on Europe which is likely to fair relatively worse in any recovery. I am not saying Latham is some great firm that is safe. Given its prior action (layoffs) it seems like it may be safER than Linklaters. The same (with greater emphasis) goes for Cravath and DPW. Both are doing much more of the current work that is going around than other firms. Maybe they are doing it at a discount to normal fees -- so what? They have room to move relative to other firms (Fried Frank and Ropes) because the cost structures are very similar in terms of associate pay. In fact, Cravath and DPW benefit from somewhat lower associate leverage, further reducing their risk.

99 latching on to one part of my comment shows (again) a lack of big-picture thinking that got us all in trouble in the first place. You can't focus on one part and ignore the rest or you get blindsided.

Kash, what's up with half-heartedly cheering for Duke? Where's your faith? Duke is playing well , peaking at the right time, and has serious momentum going into the NCAA tournament after winning the ACC Tourney.

GO DUKE!

Really 102? DPW's email didn't convey desperation to its incoming summers? That's funny because Latham didn't sound desperate last fall at OCI and yet here we are.

CSM, DPW and STB all got burned in the last downturn by easing on hiring. When the market became very hot again, they were too short on bodies. They are not going to repeat the same mistake again (for what it's worth, from what I've heard at DPW and STB, performance/stealth layoffs were hardly higher than usual). When the market does heat up again, I'd rather be at those firms or at their close peers than at a firm who's never had as much of a lock on high level work and who will have to compete with other second tier firms for scraps not worthy of being taken on by firms at the top.

Heard about Davis Polk really hurting but I think it is Simpson who is in real trouble. Top of the death pool odds table.

Why is Gibson Dunn seeded 16th? It should be way higher.

McDermott Will & Emery wouldn't even qualify for the NIT based on its losing record.

Nevermind. I'm an idiot
-114

The seeding is all wrong. The 8 seed should be in the same section as the 1 seed and the 4 seed in the same section as the 5 seed, etc...

I mean its set up with the 4 seed and the 7 seed in the same section and the 3 seed and the 8 seed in the same section. Is there any method to this because it doesn't make any sense?

Irell and Munger more selective than Wachtell and the V5? You have to be kidding.

They both have partners and associates from uber-impressive schools like: DePaul, Loyola, Southwestern, Suffolk, Davis, Colorado, Houston, Miami, and Tulsa.

You Irell/Munger trolls have serious firm envy. Nobody cares about small, no-name lit. shops. Get over it.

"They are not going to repeat the same mistake again."

Nonsense. People and organizations almost always repeat the same mistakes over and over again until they die or dissolve.

Prediction - Tourney champ announces massive layoffs the day after winning

111 Latham certainly wasn't desperate at last year's OCI. They were on a hiring spree like they had no clue that the credit crunch (which everyone was talking about in Sept)) would send us into a recession.

111 Latham certainly wasn't desperate at last year's OCI. They were on a hiring spree like they had no clue that the credit crunch (which everyone was talking about in Sept)) would send us into a recession.

75,

Mayer Brown has a very large summer class coming in to NY office.

This is stupid.

DPW - steep drop in PPP and layoffs. Doesn't sound like the safe bet to me, 102.

Ropes - no layoffs and much smaller drop in PPP.

79, 80: yes, we know how the seeds were picked. That doesn't make it any less retarded. Kill YOURself.
and if you don't like comments that disagree with you read another blog.

Steptoe Remains!

Let me get this straight: there are still AmLaw 100 first that (a) have not frozen salaries, (b) have not conducted layoffs, and (c) are still hiring. And you come up with this lisTTT for the tournament?

Fried Frank's PPP nosedived 23%.

http://amlawdaily.typepad.com/amlawdaily/2009/03/fried-frank-continues-wall-streets-losing-ways.html

126,

"and if you don't like comments that disagree with you read another blog."

Maybe you should take your own advice ...

or derivatively, if you don't like post that use Vault rankings (as it is the easiest for them to use as opposed to self and biased seeding), start another blog

STFU this time, thanks

-80

I've got Jones Day meeting Wachtell in the final four. Tough matchup for Jones Day since Wachtell has superior talent, but I will take Jones Day with the upset to advance over a slumping Cravath in the finals.

115 - Agree. McStinker is run by a bunch of fat monkeys: um, let's cut the coffee and cable in our offices to ensure that the firm stays afloat. Dipshits.

1) Good idea, poor execution.. including firms that have already made major cuts doesn't make them sense. Sure, they're safe in that they've already taken a hit but I didn't think that was the spirit in which this whole thing was dreamed up, right?

2) A lot of much more safe/lucrative/well-run firms have been left off. W&C in DC is definitely one of them. As is Willkie Farr. So, using "seeds" from vault... sort of killed this whole thing.

WACHTELL has YET to release its revenue and profits figures for this year. WAIT FOR THAT? You think Cravath took a hit... Wachtell is EVEN MORE NY-centric... and more M&A focused.

Latham is the new Cadwalader.

92 and 109 - you have your Ropes and DPW leverage ratios reversed. See NALP:

Ropes - 250 partners, 554 associates = approx 1:2
DPW - 161 partners, 522 associates = approx 1:3

Cravath may have took a big hit last year, but their PPP is still higher than all firms other than Wachtell (if they havent plummeted that far consdiering they havent released yet), Sullivan, and Quinn (which doesnt even count).... and they have not conducted any layoffs, and have done massive cost cutting measures that are sensible however (limiting summer program, delaying start dates by a little bit).... also, look at the law news, Cravath has not been dead this year like many other firms. Their name is all over the place, representing Goldman Sachs in several deals, having the first IPO, a handful of pretty big mergers already... and their litigation is ALWAYS busy. So, yeah, they had a humbling 2008... but to count out Cravath would be a silly move.

137 - We'll see what happens with 160 or so incoming associates in the fall.

I call bull: Jones Day is severely underrated here.
1) No layoffs (announced or stealth)
2) Bonuses paid
3) Salaries NOT frozen
4) 1% increase in PPP
5) Normal Sept.ember Start date for incoming associates
6) Normal summer program
7) Diverse practice areas serving ½ of the global 500
-I’m not arguing JD is the best, but come on people, how many firms can boast these stats these days?

Jones Day to FINAL FOUR!

McDermott's RPI is last in the nation.

I think that ATL should have included short scouting reports on each of the firms, like ESPN does for the March Madness picks. That would prevent voting based on knee-jerk reaction to Vault rank. Heck, they could just cull some of the comments already posted here on PPP drop-offs, overexposure to troubled industries / companies, etc.

Any smart commentator with some time on their hands want to go a step further and more formally break down the picks?

man, do you even know how to seed a bracket? 1 plays 8 in the sweet 16 - not 5.

Munger is more selective than the V5, except for Wachtell. They require better grades and value things like clerking and law review more. For Michigan, Munger has a median GPA of 3.81, while Cravath is 3.65, S&C is 3.72, DPW NY is 3.65, Skadden NY is 3.53.

I'd bet anything Latham will cut more attorneys and staff in a few months. Business is still very slow and has been since before the end of the year. They just don't need all the attorneys they have now, especially in Corp. and Finance. The next cut will include partners.

125 -

How do you know what Ropes' PPP was? What exactly was the drop?

Duke is going down. GO BINGHAMTON!!!!!!!!!!

138-- read my post, and 112's for that matter

start dates were delayed. the bulk of associates will be arriving at the end of November... which by then the corp's dept's will start to pick up... and this time around wont have to turn away business by not having enough attorney's for the boom times.

Stop comparing R&G with DPW. They are different types of firm. Look at their RPLs. DPW is much much higher.

143 -- who cares about munger. w&c is more selective than munger on its best day, AND it's ranked higher in vault in virtually all categories.

144, What's your source or confidence level on future Latham layoffs?

147 -- wow, cravath really has it all figured out! it's amazing how they were able to nail the market cycles like that. now we can all rest easy that the market will pick up in Nov -- Nov 3rd, at 10:33am to be exact, which is when cravath will open its doors to the new associates.

Heller Ehrman is the safest.

What about Weil Gotshal??

Heller Ehrman is the safest.

What about Weil Gotshal??

Heller Ehrman is the safest.

What about Weil Gotshal??

Heller Ehrman is the safest.

What about Weil Gotshal??

150, I'm not 144, but I can vouch for likely future Latham layoffs. I know a bunch of people who still work there and they're crazy busy with the pro bono work that the fired associates had been doing, but have LITTLE in the way of client paying work.

150, I'm not 144, but I can vouch for likely future Latham layoffs. I know a bunch of people who still work there and they're crazy busy with the pro bono work that the fired associates had been doing, but have LITTLE in the way of paying client work.

I completely agree with 133.

W&C in DC is legit. Extremely well-run. Solid firm.

As for nyc, Willkie was one of the very few firms to not over-hire during the bullshit "boom" years. Their goal is not to make as much PPP during boom years, but to run an efficient law firm. They are extremely well-run and well-leveraged. People don't realize just how good Willkie is. No start dates pushed back, top pay, good people, no stealth layoffs, etc.etc. A year a go most would have chosen Latham over Willkie. Kinda funny when you think about it.

I was at WFG for many years before moving on to family business. The partners at the top of the firm are very business savvy.

By the way 22, I respectfully disagree, willkie people are hot.

149 --- White & Case is not nearly as selective as Munger --- NOT NEARLY ---- associate who doesn't work at Munger

Jones Day in your face

Why is The Cochran Firm not in the mix here?

Ellie fix it to say WilmerHale and/or White & Case - W & C is confusing with your Wilmer Cutler foolishness. And try to do something accurately for once - for Christ's sake, aren't you supposed to be a lawyer?

Coudert Brothers to the final four!!

Why are people so up in arms about seeding, isn't this just a straight copy of the vault rankings. And thus Latham is on here?

To the Jones Day troll: your K-Mart firm sucks

To the Jones Day troll: your K-Mart firm sucks

Kirkland Equity Partner Profits: $2,475,000 in 2007
Jones Day Equity Partner Profits: $785,000 in 2007

JD not even in KE ballpark in what matters. JD not even in top 77 of AM 100 in PPP. JD may be "safe", so may working at Walmart. But the partners at JD and the greeters at Walmart each make at least $1.6 million LESS than KE partners.

Ropes is one of the lowest leveraged firms in the AMLAW200. It wouldn't be that much of an upset.

Skadden with an easy path to the Final Four.

165-167: Put away the ruler and zip up. It's all going to be okay. Why the hostility?

And why the hate on Walmart? I mean, isn't Walmart the one company actually making money?

16:
Gonzaga is overrated every year. Some wingnut is constantly hyping them as a national championship contender when never have they had a team of that caliber.

Jones Day

Milbank should be getting more credit considering (1) there have been no mass layoffs; (2) salaries have not been frozen; (3) start dates are set for October 2009, and (4) they have a BOOMING bankruptcy practice, which also keeps their finance lawyers busy.

gotta give credit where credit is due: Jones Day.

STB will win. Top tier across the board, no layoffs, no freezes, full summer program. Those who think it's only a PE shop are idiots -- all things litigation are busy as hell. STB to $190K!

27- explain STB.

123- You are incorrect. MB's NYC summer class is 40%+ smaller than last summers.

thats right 151. Im sorry.. YOU have it all figured out. I guess your omniscience, or just blind pessimism, will guide you well.

There are a lot of quality firms missing from this list and a lot of firms that may go into oblivion on the list. A lot of top firms are conducting stealth layoffs and no one, no one is talking about them becasue they fear for their future career. So really, it is difficult to judge what is and isn't safe anymore.

Dear ATL,

Where is Willkie. They should be a top 5 seed.

Obviously this is the Committee not giving the right seeding to a non-power conference law firm. Willkie dominates their C-USA division every year... They are the Gonzaga's of Law firms (Except that they win in Big situations).

90 - so, uh, any word on deferrals on start dates?

Kirkland Equity Partner Profits: $2,475,000 in 2007
Jones Day Equity Partner Profits: $785,000 in 2007

JD not even in KE ballpark in what matters. JD not even in top 77 of AM 100 in PPP. JD may be "safe", so may working at Walmart. But the partners at JD and the greeters at Walmart each make at least $1.6 million LESS than KE partners.

Heard about Davis Polk really hurting but I think it is Simpson who is in real trouble. Top of the death pool odds table.

182 - Your post makes no sense. 2007 was an entirely different world from today. Kirkland has had rumors of layoffs whereas JD has not. Isn't the lesson of this "economic crises" that when good times were good, people got too fat and are paying for it now? JD should win this hands down.

I'm with 180. Willkie should be a top 5 seed. It's funny that it takes a recession to show which firms are legit and which ones were all smoke and mirrors. Willkie is clearly one of the best.

Can we clear this up: is it safer to be at a place that has already done layoffs (and therefore survived) like Latham or White & Case or a place like Cravath where they have 160 first years coming in the fall?

183- why Simpson in particular?

"I'm not trying to make partner, and we're laying people off in order to keep PPP as high as possible, but damn, if it doesn't feel good to know that they're making more money than the partners at other firms."

Right.

@186- The NY elite firms are not immune to the current economic problem. If you think otherwise, I do not think clients would want you to represent them. Make no mistake about it, layoffs are coming to the likes of Cravath within the next 90 days. Most of the chairs of those firms would like to see it happen in the next 30 days just to get it over with. They're just waiting to see who would go first.

I would say that firms that have already made cuts are in better shape compared to firms that have not.

186, no. Cravath is strong enough to make it through this storm without flushing it's reputation down the toilet. WhiTTTe & Case, and LaTTTham are not.

Laying off half your first years is a sign of desperation, LaTTTham.

189 I saw you at First Year Academy!!! You're the guy who told us there was a place for us at the firm!!

And to half of us, you actually kept that promise! Thank you!

139 - add:

8. Zero debt
9. Owns its offices (Cravath, take notes)

Jones Day is a ROCK

oops i meant 140
-192

JD to Final Four

Hey Bob Dell,

How's that NY expansion strategy going?

-Laid off Latham 1st Year

@190- Please do not confuse a smart business decision, i.e. laying off first years when all projections show no work for them (or even summers if the numbers warrant it) and desperation.

U.S. based firms are forced to hire associates two years in advance in a very costly summer associate program. If the realities change as they clearly have, then a smart firm adjusts accordingly. Firms are not immune to this crisis and neither are first years. You must be a law student or very junior associate to think that first years are more important than they really are. Neither are summer associates for that matter. We play the summer associate program game because we're forced to. This crisis will force many U.S. firms to re-think that. The shortening of the duration of the SA program is just the beginning.

I have the luxury of talking to the leaders of Cravath, Wachtell, DPW and other leading firms. Do you? They are in the same situation as Latham and first years are definitely not off limits.

I would be more worried if I were one of those 160 incoming associates at Cravath. If you really want to succeed in Big Law, I suggest that you learn how a big firm works. Do not simply parrot what you see on ATL. I wish you the best.

195/Bob Dell

At first year academy, why did you tell us you had a place for us? Why not just admit you were going to cut half of us (at least)?

Why not offer the first years deferrals like you're offering the 3Ls?

@194- I'm sorry that you got laid off. We over-hired and had to adjust. See post #195 for the reason.

As for the NY expansion strategy, it's going well, thank you for asking.

197/Bob Dell,

Do you have offers for all of your summer associates? Will you rescind offers to 3Ls? Will you cut any of the next wave of 1st years?

Bob Dell,

Will you announce the next round of layoffs on an Acela?

@196- To be honest, we didn't think the economy would deteriorate this much this quickly. That's the honest truth. I don't think anyone else did either.

In addition to the economic situation, several other factors worsen the situation. One was normal attrition. Latham counts on a certain amount of attrition based on data going back years. That never materialized and frankly I do not blame anyone given what we're seeing.

At the time of the first year academy, we thought would be able to ride this out. We were wrong. Things change, as much as we sometimes wish they would not. Unfortunately it affected you personally and for that I'm sorry.

@198- Yes. No. No. Of course, that's assuming that what we're seeing in the economy right now holds. We are forecasting that things will turn around in Q4 2009. Should that forecast hold, then my answer will also hold.

@199- No. I work at Latham, not Pillsbury.

How can you not have Akin Gump on there? Sure, they made some cuts, but top notch bankruptcy, litigation and public policy make it safer than all but 10% of the firms on this list.

wow, some incoming 2L summer to Jones Day must be on here submitting comments every 20 minutes or so. Either that or the firm told all of its associates to spam this site with how great the firm is. Serious JD trolling going on...

Weil is the firm to beat in this. Gibson Dunn as well. If Skadden wasn't so bloated (and didnt have that voluntary deferral news a few days back), I would put them up there as well.

202 - ATL did not exercise any discretion in picking the firms to include: "We've set up brackets based on Vault seeds."

Vault is a publisher of law firm rankings. ATL just took the top 32 firms (a la the top 32 seeds):

http://www.vault.com/nr/lawrankings.jsp?law2009=2&ch_id=242&top100=1

The competition is which firm is SAFEST. Is there a safer firm than Weil?

201, you are ugly. Why didn't you at least doctor your photo a little before posting it on here like a little hussy?

164 and 204 are right. This is just based on the Vault rankings.

That was done presumably to AVOID the problem of people complaining that Firm X or Firm Y should have been included.

193: Jones Day is sole tenant in a number of buildings (e.g., Atlanta, Cleveland, Columbus, Paris, Washington), but I don't think it owns them. It certainly doesn't own the one in Washington. But, based on what I've read, you may be right about its other virtues.

Kirkland is obviously vastly more profitable, but unless there is a direct correlation between profitability and stability, Kirkland's profitability does not bear directly on the question at hand, i.e., which firm is the "safest."

134, Wachtell had a busy year in 2008. They did tons of M&A related to the Wall Street meltdown:

http://blogs.wsj.com/deals/2008/10/16/ed-herlihy-bailout-lawyer-i-am-optimistic-the-worst-is-over/

And they are also working on some of the big, recently announced pharma deals.

This will come down to the "W" firms: Wachtell vs. Williams & Connolly (or maybe Weil).

how is simpson destroying milbank? last time i checked, milbank has lehman while simpson has a bunch of vacationing private equity clients. this match-up should be a lot closer.

Wachtell's PPP plunged by 20% in 2008 (from 4.9m to 4m). I wouldn't say they are much safer than CSW considering they do nothing but M&A related work.

211 - But here's the thing. Wachtell has a 1:1 partner-to-associate ratio. They don't need to do layoffs; they will just cut bonuses.

And there is a lot of fat to cut in those bonuses. Last year, WLRK paid bonuses that were 70 percent of base salaries:

http://abovethelaw.com/2008/12/wachtell_lipton_associate_bonus_2008.php

Cravath is already rescinding offers to clerks.

STB and Skadden deferral programs are ominously undersubscribed.

This poll should simply read, "True or False: Weil is Safest"

simpson = the weakest of the top bunch. decent bankruptcy dept but not enough muscle to carry the firm until blackstone/kkr/the usual suspects find some $$

Bob Dell,

How does it feel to see your firm go from ATL darling to even more cadwalader than cadwalader?

KIRKLAND

Wachtell is advising Schering-Plough in the $41 billion Merck deal:

http://amlawdaily.typepad.com/amlawdaily/2009/03/fried-frank-wachtell-on-another-huge-pharma-merger.html

That's a big fat fee right there, well into the eight figures.

Wachtell is also in on the $68 billion Pfizer/Wyeth transaction:

http://amlawdaily.typepad.com/amlawdaily/2009/01/a-long-weekend-for-cadwalader-simpson-and-wachtell.html

Trust me, Wachtell is not going to be doing any layoffs.

@215- It doesn't bother me in the least to be honest. Believe it or not, clients pay no heed to rants from a bunch of law students and/or junior associates.

Most of the folks laid off from Latham are grateful for the generous severance package we provided. Sure, we would have liked to control the message better, but you can't control leaks and speculation. On the whole, I've received positive feedback from those affected in terms of how the painful situation was handled. I've even received positive feedback from clients. Sure, there are always some who will be disgruntled no matter what, but you have them everywhere.

"Bob Dell," you are a pretty good impersonator. I think this was your one misstep:

"I have the luxury of talking to the leaders of Cravath, Wachtell, DPW and other leading firms. Do you? They are in the same situation as Latham and first years are definitely not off limits."

You would be surprised at how little Biglaw partners talk to one another about such matters. Maybe it's a competitiveness issue; maybe it's a fear of violating antitrust laws. But we tend to steer clear of these topics.

Jones Day = Rust Belt law firm, with Rust Belt clients.

But maybe that is a recipe for safety???

Jones Day should be ashamed of itself, for filing a frivolous lawsuit:

http://www.citmedialaw.org/blog/2009/thoughts-jones-day-blockshopper-settlement

*is bringing an antitrust suit against Bob Dell*

Using the Vault rankings from last year is as retarded as using the basketball standings from last year to seed the NCAA. It's a new world now. Gibson and Wilmer haven't done layoffs at 16 & 17 while Latham is seeded #7 against Linklaters. Please. That's like making 2&3 seeds fight it out in the first round -- it just screws up the "tournament" in the end rounds.

@219- You'd be surprised at how often firm managing partners talk to each other. We attend enough conferences and events with each other that this comes up much more often than you think. In fact, I was in one such conference before our partner meeting in Maryland last week and this topic came up. That is, how NY firms are seemingly unaffected by large layoffs. The truth is, they are affected but just didn't want to be the first to do it. So much for being market leaders. But I re-iterate what I said earlier, within 90 days you'll see the likes of Cravath and Wachtell succumbing to our current realities.

Bob, you should learn how to spell "reiterate."

I expect typos and misspellings from Elie. But from the leader of a top law firm?

A 3L going to Weil has told me that he's heard from insiders that there are stealth layoffs in corporate groups there as well.

@225- I refer you to this little entry from the New Oxford American Dictionary:

"In modern English, the tendency is for words formed with prefixes such as re- to be unhyphenated: reacquaint, reconsider, reshape. For the sake of clarity, however, hyphenation is sometimes favored when the the root word begins with a vowel: re-erect, for instance, may be preferred as a less awkward spelling than reerect."

That's why I'm the leader of a top law firm and you're not. Thank you.

227, please do one for dave gordon

Hmm... the Foley troll has a point:

http://amlawdaily.typepad.com/amlawdaily/2009/03/the-am-law-100-foley-lardner-maintains-revenues-avoids-layoffs.html

http://www.jsonline.com/business/40514272.html

Bob Dell troll should play him a little douchier

229 - Foley is not in the Vault top 32.

Foley hasn't done layoffs (yet). Then again, neither has my uncle, who is a solo practitioner in New Jersey.

Your point?

224 - What conference?

Good Bob Dell. You almost have the style down.

231 - hilarious

the whole set up for the brackets is stupid. which firm is the safest? uh, i choose the ones not located near a terrorist target or a runway.

You're drinking too much, excellency.

126 is an idiot, for the reasons given by 130.

All the comments about how firm X should be seeded higher, or firm Y should have been included, or firm Z should not have been included, only reinforce the wisdom of deferring to the Vault rankings.

If ATL had made up their own seedings, they would never hear the end of it in terms of bias, favoritism, inaccuracy, etc.

So what is the deal over at Hogan?

211 where did you get your info on Wachtell's PPP.... that is a pretty HUGE plunge... why hasnt it been reported"

"DPW probably was the firm who got the most bailout-related work. It may not have been worth the most fees, but still says a lot about how they are regarded at that level."
I was wondering today whether Don Berstein drafted the AIG language everyone's all pissed about today.

You people who think the bailout work means anything in the grand scheme of things... are retarded. A handful of big name deals that make news means nothing for the overall profitability of a firm (see.. DAVIS POLK). Revenue and profits need to be generated by tons of deals for a firm to become successful. Don't let news headlines make you thin a firm is doing well.

Plus, any firm with too much bailout work is going to see themselves on the bad end of a conflicts nightmare once this market picks back up.

WilmerHale is clearly the winner - huge firm made from two awesome firms, wide variety of practice areas, no layoffs, increasing profits per partner, no pushed back starting dates, no rescinded summer offers, great practices in IP, Securities, Antitrust, Litigation etc

These are the worst brackets I have ever seen. They don't make any sense. Number 16 or 17 shouldn't have to play number 1 in the second round when teams with worse rankings than 16 and 17 get to play teams with worse rankings than 1 in the second round.

Redo these brackets so they make sense. Look at an example or something. This is pathetic.

Willkie does have a very impressive operation!

Latham is not safe. Laying off over half the first year class is a desperate move. Other firms may be laying off associates, but they recognize that laying off first years is basically sentencing them to crushing debt and unemployment (without eligibility for unemployment benefits). Other firms are either minimizing the effects on first years by limiting the number laid off or offering creative options rather than just throwing them out.

Plus, who cuts HLS and CLS and keeps Seton Hall & Fordham? All due respect to those schools, but when you're making so many cuts with so little information . . . what gives?

"Bob Dell,"

It's obvious that you're a first year at Latham. You're pathetic. I can't believe adults are paying to have you review their documents . . . or actually just tag them while you're listening to the latest from Kings of Leon and im'ing everyone around you.

you say "REDO the BRACKETS to MAKE SENSE!" silly rabbit. the laziest animal on the planet is a KASH LOBSTER. just throw in the vault rankings and go back to the HOLE for KASHLOBSTER for a nappy.

Too bad that Freshfields, which finished a major restructuring not too long ago, and is probably in the most sound position of all UK firms both in London and NY, has little chance against Wachtell.

PHuk all y'all PH haters.

118 - are you drunk? Munger hires only from the top 10 law schools + UCLA + USC. Nothing else. 50%+ of each Munger class in recent years is from Harvard, Yale or Stanford. We give "no offer" to people who can get hired in 95% of v20 firms just by showing their CV.

Munger = meritocratic nerdfest shithole. Everyone I know from Munger is an epic social failure, clinging desperately to his resume as a memento of self-worth. They don't capture most of the prestigious deals in the country, much less in California. Vault ranks them, what, 6th in SoCal based on partner and associate surveys, and 60-something in the country? Yawn.

250 - failed to get an offer at Munger.

8 - True, JD does seem awfully stable.

But that doesn't mean the people out there voting KNOW this. Like with NCAA brackets, they will often just pick the choice with the better numerical rank if they don't know different.

And Kirkland is a rough first round draw.

STB trouncing Milbank shows that everyone is just voting on Vault rank. STB has nothing going on, Milbank has mad bankruptcy work with a hedge fund client roster a mile long.

Munger also has TONS of Supreme Court clerks. Very, very selective.

245--Freshfields has been conducting stealth layoffs since February. Great firm as a whole, but certain groups have douche bags in charge that make life miserable

255 was directed at 247 not 245

251, 251 = nerdy Munger trolls.

Skadden recently laid off staff workers inlcuding legal assisants, staff attorneys, and secretaries. You all may recall that Skadden also set the industry standard for the highest bonus this past December while our economy was in turmoil. Now many of us are losing sleep and jobless just so that the partners and associates can add those bonus dollars to their already inflated bank accounts. Corporate greed at its best! Another AIG..

Skadden recently laid off staff workers inlcuding legal assisants, staff attorneys, and secretaries. You all may recall that Skadden also set the industry standard for the highest bonus this past December while our economy was in turmoil. Now many of us are losing sleep and jobless just so that the partners and associates can add those bonus dollars to their already inflated bank accounts. Corporate greed at its best! Another AIG..