1, Cypress has been focusing on Asia (and doing a good job of it) since '01 or '02, whereas we at Kinney only since '05, so Cypress should naturally have higher number of overall placements, historically.

I strongly believe that we at Kinney have more US associate (not all associates, but US associates) placements in Asia in the past 3 years. I also believe that no individual recruiter has made the number of such placements I have in the past few years in Asia Dawn at Cypress is also very good though and her and her team make a lot of placements in Asia and probably more than we do in Japan (although our numbers are good there too), whereas we have more in HK / China. We have a healthy competition with Cypress and mutual respect for one another.

Re US associate placements, most of the top attorney recruiters focus on partner placements, because of the higher placement fees for those, and delegate associate recruiting to the more junior recruiters in the office. I on the other hand focus on US associate placements in Asia and, although I have increased my partner placements and focus in Asia in the past year, I will always continue a US associate focus (at least as a 50/50 mix with partners).

What about the Russian market?

3, my colleague, Yuliya Vinokurova, has been working from Russia the past 3 months and all indications are that it is still a pretty dead market, re US associate lateral hiring. That will likely change on a dime at some point and could be as early as '10 if the price of oil continues to increase. I have a number of US associate friends that are in Moscow or have recently been laid off from US firms in Moscow. They are also saying hiring is pretty much non-existent there. There could be some strategic mid level to senior associate hires by end year, but don't expect to much from Russia lateral hiring market in '09. When that market rebounds though it will be a very hot lateral market. As recent as summer '08, a lot of firms in Moscow had urgent needs for multiple US cap markets associates.

This is a great post, informative and balanced! Kudos!

(Too bad it doesn't generate as much audience response.)

5 - (aka Evan)

This post isn't generating comments b/c the ATL readership is tired of Evan and Robert's intolerable egos, horrible legal pedigrees, and self-congratulatory, wordy posts.

6 = jealous recruiter.

I would venture to guess that about 99% of the readers don't ever comment. In any event it appears that Evan hit things on the head with this post.

6, what in the world does Evan and Robert's "legal pedigrees" have to do with their recruiting? They both have JDs from top 20 law schools and both are former biglaw associates anyways. Do you only work with recruiters that are top 5 JD and from top 5 law firms? Does your recruiter have to have been editor of law review some years ago? Personally, I could care less if a recruiter I work with even has a JD if he / sheis at the top of his industry.

6, let me get this straight: So you think these posts are horrible, but you read them so much that you feel qualified to give overview of the two years long series in general, when you read them you take the time to "jump" to the full version, then you open up the comments and comment, then afterwards returning to read responses to your comment.

Since you don't like the posts, is there some gravitational pull that causes you to involuntarily read them? I don't understand. These are "sponsored ads", marketing, as far as I can tell. Do you click on all the banner ads at ATL and other sites, even when you don't like the ads?

In my opinion Evan has very creative and interesting marketing for his business. I appreicate the posts, some more or less than others, because I have an interest in the Asia US biglaw market. If I did not find the posts interesting, I would not read them and then whine about how much I dislike them in the comments.

Evan, what is going on in Singapore? Is that market hiring at all? Do you focus much on Sinagapore? I ask because I rarely see this market mentioned in your articles. Thanks for the informative posts!

Thanks Evan.

If firms are not hiring much, then why advertise so much? Why keep this series going during such a bad market?

12, there are enough people interested about Asia to justify keeping the series going. Also, Asia is about one of the only places in the world that is hiring right now for BIGLAW (especially for corporate positions) and the Asia markets have been consistently picking up even since June. Since there are jobs to be filled, why not keep the series going? I, for one, find Evan's posts informative and the Asia markets will likely turn around soon enough.

As for 6, why care about a recruiter's legal pedigree? It's enough for me that Evan and Robert went to solid law schools and both worked in BIGLAW. Personally, I like to know if a recruiter has had previous legal experience. Even if they went to (gasp!) a school outside the "Top 14", it gives them some legitimacy (warranted or unwarranted) in my eyes. On the other hand, it's rather entitled and shortsighted to bag on a RECRUITER for not graduating from a T5 and going to a V10. 90% of lawyers I know don't have the skills necessary to be a recruiter (people skills, business skills), and I'm sure that percentage would be even higher as one moves up the Top 14.

12, we are making placements in '09 in Asia, including at the associate level. I have personally made 12 associate placements thus far in '09 (with most coming in the past few months), plus a few partners, but of course the number of associate placements is quite down from '08 and that is to be expected in this market. You are right, though, that it probably would be smart in short-term to not expand and not take on more marketing expenses during this down time, if we were focused on only short-term. However, we are looking at medium-term and long-term much more. We are also having fun with this series and enjoy educating US biglaw associates on the Asia markets (these posts are just a start, as we do a lot more by phone and meetings). Especially for those moving from US to Asia, it is a big move and not something that happens over night. Many of those that land in Asia in '10 or '11, for example, are already putting serious thought into whether, when and how to make that move and we get plenty of calls and emails about such potential future moves. With that said, we are of course going to continue to make associate and partner placements in Asia, especially in HK / China (the hotter market now), in '09.

10, thanks for your question about Singapore, the city I was born in :-) We do make placements in Singapore, but not nearly as much as in HK / China and Japan. I am quite familiar with most firms in Singapore, but they generally are smaller and hire less when compared to HK, for example. The focus in Singapore is more on project finance and recently India practices. I expect there to be an uptick in hiring in Singapore once firms start hiring more for the India practices again (that was happening in mid '08, but then market fell in fall '08).

Right now there is not much hiring going on in Singapore, but the small offices there are getting quite busy. Project finance, for example, has been across the board busier than most other areas in Asia in '09, but PF groups don't hire laterals so much even in the hot markets. India is starting to pick up but that market fell sharply in early '08, much sooner than the HK / China markets and firms now, if they are hiring at all in SE Asia, are more focused on China practice hiring than India practice hiring for the most part.

At most firms, hiring for Singapore is done under the umbrella of the HK and Singapore offices, so even though the cities are 4 or so hours away by plane, those offices work together on hiring often. Thus it is not as important that I spend time in Singapore so much, as compared to HK. I do go to Singapore a few times a year though, as side trips from and HK stay.

I do go to Singapore a few times a year though, as side trips from and HK stay.

Of course I meant to write "side trips from HK stays" in
15.

Evan, why is hiring usually slower in PF than other practice areas in Asia, even in busy times? I ask because you mention this in 15.

Evan, why is hiring usually slower in PF than other practice areas in Asia, even in busy times? I ask because you mention this in 15.

17, project finance groups are in general a smaller part of US and British firms in Asia, relative to cap markets, M&A and other core areas. Also, the very best PF groups usually have a pretty good pipeline of their own people back in US for transfer to Asia. After all, it is usually the better PF / energy practices in US that have the better ones in Asia. The work is more steady (a lot of big PF deals don't shut down due to downswing in economy) than cap markets, for example, as firms can become understaffed on IPO deals very quickly in Asia and need to thus hire quickly. I realize this answer is very basic, but hard to fully explain things quickly in a comment.

Why would a firm hire laterals in asia if they are overstaffed globally? Makes no sense.

20, there are lots of reasons. Sure, it would always be better if the perfect fit for an opening were already at the firm, albeit in another office, but that is not always the case. Sometimes firms are looking for associates that already have significant experience in a particular Asia market. Partners in Asia also want to grow their practice with new hires that have a strong connection to that market and can be relied on to be there for the long-term, rather than simply a secondment. Sometimes there are simply better qualified associates at other firms, in such a down market as this, when firms can be so ultra selective (and part of that "qualfication" is knowing that a candidate has long-planned to settle down in HK or whichever Asia market). Keep in mind that some of the associates we are placing now in HK / China have been in discussions with their new firm for 6 months or more. Those are just some basic reasons.... Of course, there are firms that are taking the approach that you suggest and implementing hiring freezes until a high percentage of their associates worldwide are being effectively utilized. It all depends on firm management and the particualr partner(s) in Asia that need to expand their groups.

Evan, when are you next in HK?

22, For most of September. I have to be in Europe for the next couple of weeks though.

Evan, what type of associates are you getting interviews for now in China? practice area, class year, type of law school / law firm background?

Evan, I realize the Russian market is dead now, but can you give some sense of what it was like a year ago, i.e. expat packages, what levels of seniority firms were looking for, and the language skills needed? Thanks.

25, the expat packages in Moscow last year were similar to HK. Firms were mostly looking for cap markets and M&A associates, with anywhere from 2 to 8 years experience. Russian was not required for many of the openings before the Moscow market crashed. However, most associates landing lateral positions in Russia did speak Russian.

24, It is a mix of M&A and cap markets associates mostly. The cap markets associates are mainly 5 to 10 years and are usually fluent in Mandarin. The M&A associates are typically 3 to 6 years in this market, and about 2/3 of time Mandarin being required. The cap markets associates are coming from HK / China more than US and the M&A associates are coming from US more than HK / China. The academics and current law firms are very impressive (typically top 20 law school (top 1/3 standing) and top 15 current law firm. There are exceptions to above of course, as those are just what is typical re the candidates I have interviewing at present.

is there any way to land in HK as a litigator, even if I am willing to get HK qualified?

Evan, what does the market look like for Korean fluent corporate associates in Asia?

Evan, When do you think the Dubai market will pick up and start hiring again?

30, I think at some point in '10 that market will be just fine once again. Right now though, I only have a few people interviewing there and two of them are partners. Re associates, there is a need for senior project finance associates in Dubai. Keep in mind that there are some sovereign wealth funds in the region with very large cash reserves, due to their staying on the sidelines during the global downturn, so there is some activity in investment management groups, although more so in Abu Dhabi.

29, Korea practices in HK and Tokyo have been relatively busy all year, believe it or not. Thus there has been a real need for Korean speaking associates at a number of firms. However, until the recent dramatic pick-up in deal flow in China practices, HK offices have not had much flexibility to hire for their smaller Korea practices. That has been changing lately. Some firms with solid Korea practices do continue to be on a hiring freeze, but others have recently picked up interviewing for their Korea practices.

28, It is possible and I have placed a few such persons in thepast 3 years, but it is not easy to do. The more senior you are, the more difficult. If you are fairly junior and come from a top firm and litigation practice, preferably from NYC, and don't mind taking a pay cut (you would be compensated as local HK attorney), then it is possible (if not likely), especially in the magic circle firms.

Thanks Evan

Mr. I think Philippine also should be a good source for your hiring. Did you think ever about that?

Hi Evan,
I have sent you my Resume on a number of occasions with no response. I am European qualified with an American LLM from an Ivy league university and have worked in China for 2 years previously. I speak Mandarin and four other languages including English. I have written the NY bar exam in July this year and am awaiting results. What do you think my chances are? Do you think you would be able to place me?

36, you wrote the NY bar exam? Quite impressive! What questions are you intending to write for next year's NY bar exam? Please add a T&E/Wills question, the exam takers love those!

Evan,

Is it possible for a 2nd year Patent attorney to make the switch into M&A in Asia. I took the job as a patent attorney as that was the easiest area for me to get hired into (engg. background), but I have always been interested in M&A. Did I kill my chances in M&A with the patent gig? or will I have a reasonable shot?

Also, if you want to know, I am at a mid-sized firm in the mid-west (200+ attorneys) and graduated from a state school.

37, you think you are a wise guy but you are really just a loser sitting around picking on people. do something constructive with your time.

38, You will most likely have to make the switch to M&A before you attempt to move to China. In '07, when the lateral market was extremely hot in HK / China, I did move a few junior IP Litigation associates to HK, SHG and BJ and they switched to cap markets and / or M&A for the move. However, firms can be selective as they want to be in this market and that will likely be the case for more than a year in the future. Also, those persons who made such a switch in the hot market of '07 were from top 20 law firms and top 10 law schools. They also were native fluent in Mandarin, which of course helped.

36, I think you can be placed in China, although it could take a while in this still slow and very selective market. Please send me your info again at evan@kinneyrecruiting.com. Thanks and apologies for not responding to your email previously. I get tons per day...

I also sent you my resume several times and never got a response. Is there something we can do to tag it in the subject line to get a response?

Also, if the market is overcrowded with incredibly impressive US candidates why have their been several "more pressing openings" listed repeatedly without being filled? That's not meant to be snarky... I'm sure there's a reasonable explanation. Just seems inherently contradictory. Can you explain?

42, When I write "Here are some of our more pressing openings" this of course means more pressing, relative to other openings in the market and not necessarily that these firms do not already have a few solid candidates for the position. Firms can move as slow as they want to move in hiring because they have a number of very impressive candidates to consider and most of those candidates do not yet have offers from other firms. The positions I mention in the post are of firms that are looking for new candidates for those spots, but most of those positions could be filled with the candidates they already have been in talks with for some time. Some of those openings however are brand new and without solid candidates yet, but that will of course change very soon. There are also a few openings listed for firms that are having trouble finding candidates, such as for example, the Korean fluent PF need in Tokyo.

As I have mentioned before in posts, I get a lot of emails every day and I have to prioritize them, according to current attorney clients, law firm clients and those new prospective attorney clients that can likely be placed in Asia, notwithstanding the tough market, or are very impressive candidates who look to move to Asia within the next two years. I try to answer every email though. Please send yours again to evan@kinneyrecruiting.com.

thanks

Evan placed me in HK this summer and was an amazing resource for me for the 9 months it took for me to land a spot and also for the 6 months beforehand when I was contemplating a HK move. The guy seems to know everyone in town and I have already randomly run into other associates that have been placed by him in recent years in HK. Evan changed my earlier very negative perception of recruiters. I gave him a shot only because a friend referred me.

good post

Evan, do you think the lateral market level of '07 in Asia can return in '10?

47, of course not. Use your head.

47, in order for the biglaw US associate lateral hiring market in Asia to be red hot again, as it was in '07, the economy will have to be red hot in both Asia and the US. In China right now that is arguably the case, but without the US and Western Europe markets returning, US and UK firms in China (and all of Asia of course) will naturally not be hiring as many laterals as they would otherwise want (global firm management not giving green light) and / or need (associates can more easily transfer within firm due to less deal flow in main offices in West).

With that said, there will still be lateral hiring in biglaw in Asia, especially in HK / China, in rest of '09 and '10, due to market picking up there, but it will be very selective.

When the US economy is booming again, I would argue that the Asia lateral market will be even stronger than '07, a lot stronger, due to the expansion of US firms in Asia, especially China. However, when will the US economy boom again? As early as late '10? Not sure. Maybe '11.

When US markets do return, there will be a lateral hiring bonanza in US because firms will have to try and replace at least a significant number of those that were laid off in this unprecedented time of mass layofffs. Will be very hard for firms to do this and there will be understaffing all over the place, especially in NYC.

Evan, you've got to be kidding when you say that the Chinese market is arguably red hot. Are you seeing what's going on in the Chinese market with the recent sharp pullback and foreign funds exiting China en masse. Here are some articles that will hopefully educate you:

http://www.straitstimes.com/Breaking%2BNews/Money/Story/STIStory_421585.html
http://www.businessinsider.com/forget-about-the-chinese-stock-market-the-whole-chinese-economy-is-a-bubble-waiting-to-burst-2009-8
http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/bizchina/2009-08/26/content_8616355.htm

While you have been hyping up China, the Chinese market has been the WORST performing stock market in the word this month. Something to think about...

The biglaw lateral hiring market was red hot in 2000 and 2007. Seven years in between. Next time it'll be 2014 at the earliest. Between now and then it'll be freezing, cold, lukewarm and warm, but not red hot.

Evan,
Do you commonly find partners who conclude that because no longer work at a firm, you were unable to "hack it" as a lawyer, and thus are not particularly competent? Or was it a smart decision to spend 3 years on a J.D. in order to become a recruiter?

50, you are taking things out of context if you only respond to one comment I wrote. If you look at recent posts, you will see that I have acknowledged that the China stock indexes were due a healthy correction. As of about one month ago China was the best performing stock market in the world, so one bad month is not going to change the perception of things for all of '09. I could find you 20 articles pro and against China's economy in a matter of minutes so not impressed.

In short, if you honestly believe that China's economy is not goind significantly better than major western markets, then you must have been in a cave the past 9 months.

52, I (nor any other recruiter) spent three years on a JD in order to become a recruiter. However, after a few years as biglaw associate, I happened to decide that the recruiting business was best for me. It had nothing to do with whether I could "hack it" but more to do with the realization that I could make 7 figures as a recruiter and the only way to do that in biglaw would be as equity partner and I understood early on that odds were very long for me to get to that level (as it is for any junior biglaw associate). I also happen to enjoy being more a "deal maker" than technical person and it takes years in biglaw before one can get to the deal making level. Nothing against biglaw careers, as I would have been happy remaining in a major law firm (for some 5+ years more than I was), but I found something I was more interested in for long-term.

51, I would not pay much attention to '00 to '07 happens to be 7 years. The difference between this recession lateral market and others in recent history is the fact that biglaw firms have laid off many more associates this time around than in previous downturns. When things pick up in US, there will be needs for in some cases 100+ lateral associates at individual firms. So while the economy may not reach the level of '07 any time soon, the lateral hiring market in biglaw could very well see '07 or even better levels by '11 or so. Hard to say though when US markets will truly rebound enough for that to happen.

In China, there is significant rebound in deal flow and recently in US associate additions to market. Those associate additions are only going to increase over the next year (as long as the market continues as it has the past 3 to 4 months, as is expected, notwithstanding expected correction in stock market) and beyond, as biglaw further expands in China. However, and the cavaet to all that is many of the US associates being added to the China market will be permanent or temporary internal transfers until the US markets improve enough to where that is not so possible (a la '06 and '07).

50, Maybe you should go buy a copy of last week's Economist magazine. On the cover - "China's Astonishing Rebound" (or something to that effect).

Evan, how long will it be before hiring for India practices picks up again? When that does happen will having US LLM v JD hurt so much, when coming from top 10 NYC firm (as an associate)?

57, I am starting to see some interviewing going on in India practice groups in HK and Singapore. Not much though. US and British irms that have the green light to hire in SE Asia are prioritizing China practices and then Korea practices, due to those being the hotter markets.

Not having JD will certainly hurt some, but can be overcome, especially experience in top 10 firm (especially if 3+ years experience).

in general, what is the process for interviewing for Asia jobs (coming from US)? only phone and video conference or is there also fly outs?

If fly outs needed, do firms help those candidates in US on work visa, who need return US visa?

59, Fly outs are not always needed. In many cases offers are made based on combo of phone calls, VCs and in-person interviews in US offices. About 40% of offers in this market had fly outs before offer.

Being in US on work visa, you would need to take steps yourself to make fly out interview possible. You would need to make appointment at the US Embassy of your fly out destination and you should make such appointment a few weeks before your fly out. You will also need a full week so that you can visit US Embassy on a Monday, meet with firm on Tuesday and / or Wednesday, and receive your new US visa on Thursday or Friday. There is small chance that visa will not be ready though so it can be a little risky (none of my candidates have ever had to stay longer than a week, but I have heard about a few nightmare scenarios that happened). The interviewing firm will understand and usually provide hotel stay for 5 or 6 days, instead of usual 2 or 3.

In the hot lateral market of previous years, many qualified US associate candidates (for US to Asia move) traveled on their own to Asia, in order to set up as many interviews as possible and get offers all at one time (firms are not as willing as in US to combine costs on fly outs, as the Asia lateral markets were very competitive and firms did not want their soon to be offeree to visit other firms on the trip out). Of course, things have slowed down dramatically these days and there are more fly outs being paid for by firms (firms were willing to pay in '07 and '06, but the competitive nature of the market made it difficult to plan for such trips before candidate had other offers or had already planned personal trip for interviews).

Evan -

Do you know of an equivalent recruiter in Brazil? Any insights as to where to look for equally specific information regarding legal markets Brazil and/or Latin America?

61, I don't know of any recruiters for Brazil market that could give you equally specific information, mainly because the Brazil market for US associates is not nearly as developed as China, Japan, UAE or Singapore. Also not as developed as Russia.

There are US firms in Brazil and some have arrived their quite recently and others I know have plans to be there soon (the global downturn put the brakes on some of those plans, but those are just delays and not cancellations).

Two of my candidates have had offers in Sao Palo at top US firms in past couple of years, but both elected to stay put in US or China.

I suggest contacting my colleague, Daniel Roark, who has been spearheading our efforts in Brazil, as that market starts to open up more for US associates. He can be reached at daniel@kinneyrecruiting.com. Daniel has researched that market much better than I and has kept up with developments there. Outside of Kinney, I don't know of other recruiters for Brazil, but I am sure there are a number of them in similar situation as Daniel, but I doubt there is a US recruiter that is focused primarily on Brazil, as that would simply not make sense until that lateral market develops a lot more.

I have been traveling in Europe all week, on family vacation, so sorry if have not responded to all emails from prospective new attorney clients or those simply seeking advice on future asia move or asia markets in general.

52, your attempt at humor does not work. Evan has a ton of respect from US partners in the market here in HK. I am one of them.

Thanks Evan

http://english.caijing.com.cn/2009-08-20/110227359.html

Anyone who believes things are going to be much better in 2010 please read this article. The author is the former chieft economist of Morgan Stanley Asia, now on the board of Rosetta Stone.

66, thanks for posting this link. There are many exaggerated postive and exaggerated negative articles on China's economy on the web. Easy to find them, but I would not really on Xie so much. Xie has been a doomsdayer on China for quite some time, so no surprise here. He has flare for dramatic towards the negative though, re economies in Asia, especially China. This is why Morgan Stanley fired him, for some crazy remarks at a conference in Singapore quite some time ago. This article is global and he does give China a chance it seems (usually he is much more negative, calling China a giant ponzi scheme or what not...).

For quite some time now most experts in China have predicted that there would be a significant correction in the overvalued stock indexes there. About a month ago the SHG index had doubled from November and had gone up 91% on the year. Overvalued. During this correction in the stock markets in HK / China, expect the doomsdayers to come out screaming and this sells papers. Meanwhile, the IPO market is as strong as it has been in HK / China since early '08 and there is no signs of slowing down.

Deal flow is not going to shut down because of the predicted significant correction in stock market. However, the economy is impossible to predict, as we have learned. Who knows exactly what is in store for the next year or two or three?

I don't think '10 is going to be a good year, but will be much better than '09. I hope that US markets return to normal by '11, but who knows? The biglaw deal flow in China should be ok from now through '10 and beyond. In China the severe work shut down was from September '08 until a couple of months ago. Things are not at '07 levels now of course and hard to predict when those levels will return on consistent and not sporadic basis in HK / China, but they are much much improved from the dreadful first half of '09.

66, I think of the doomsdayers out there Xie is one of the most vocal but his predictions are always well thought out and he is obviously extremely intelligent and experienced in PRC economics. He has been very bearish for a long time though on China and simply reading his articles and predictions, rather than balancing it out with the many very positive expert predictions on China's economy, is a rather poor way of analysing the expert opinions on China in general. Hey, late last year and early this year there were some very impressive doomsday economists in US predicting that we were surely in a great depression, not simply a terrible recession. However, the extremely impressive degrees and high level experience notwithstanding, the prediction of another great depression (no matter how well thought out some of these dire predictions were) did not pan out for these folks. But it sure did sell papers, magazines and generate lots of clicks online...

1. Andy Xie correctly predicted the burst of the dotcom bubble, the U.S. real estate bubble and the financial crisis we are currently experiencing. He has an impeccable record.

2. To say that Morgan Stanley fired him for some crazay remarks on Singapore shows that you are either (a) completely ignorant; or (b) deliberately defaming him. His remarks were accurate and meant for internal discussions within Morgan Stanley. Two of his colleagues intentionally leaked the remarks (and put them out of context) to the media. Andy Xie is *the* most respected economist on Chinese economy.

I don't necessarily agree with Evan's bullishness on China, but Xie did step down under pressure from Morgan Stanley after making those comments on Singapore. That is a fact. Evan is also right in calling Xie a long-time ultra bear on China and Evan is complimentary of Xie's experience and intelligence. Xie was not able to predict the high performance of the China economy this year. While the predictable pull back in the overvalued stock market is happening now, it is easy for the ultra bears on China to make some noise, those same folks that were predicting dire straits for China up till now in '09 (but got it completely wrong). Why could Xiue not predict China's astounding rebound earlier this year? Has Xie ever been bullish on any market? Did he predict the recovery from dot com bust? How many times has he predicted a bust in the market? Not saying that Xie should be discounted. I think, as apparantly does Evan, that Xie's analysis is well thought out but I agree with Evan that simply looking at Xie's take isa laughable way to follow what the economic experts out there are saying and predicting re China (Xie is one of many experts to consider and the vast majority of those are quite bullish on China).

70 again. It only took about 10 seconds on bloomberg's site to find this most recent article (a very positive one) on China's economy:

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601089&sid=aMXlcmuydS68

Economic growth will continue to quicken in the third and fourth quarters, reaching 8.3 percent for the year, according to a Bloomberg News survey of 21 economists.

“This clearly shows that we are in a broad-based economic recovery,” said Sun Mingchun, chief China economist at Nomura Holdings Inc. in Hong Kong. The gain in jobs was “very encouraging, as it shows that firms are confident enough to increase hiring, which will also help boost consumption for the rest of the year,” he said.

70 again. Looks like Evan's prediction of deal flow continuing in China for forseeable future, especially in IPOs, is right on:

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601089&sid=a_BECrGvyF3s

Again, it takes about 10 seconds to find such articles, just like a google search on doomsday articles on China also quickly brings results. The doomsday articles are best found with google, whereas the positive articles are found quckly by going to sites such as bloomberg because the most respected economic news sites have mostly positive articles on China (articles explainin that the SHG index needs correction because overvalued is not really all that negative and is obvious).

70, Xie did predict the SHG stock market rebound in 09--he also said it would drop in the fall. Read some more of Xie's articles. Would help if you could read Chinese as many of his articles are in Chinese. Visit his blog.

71 & 72,

Everyone and their brother knows that the HK IPO (note: not U.S. IPO) deal flow is strong at the moment. However, the question has always been whether it is sustainable. Most people on the ground believe it is not.

The current recovery in China is driven by massive government lending. The question again is whether it is sustainable. Real estate in China is seriously overvalued--I don't have time to go into details but you can look into it yourself if you are interested.

Very few people in HK/China believe that we are out of the woods completely.

74, When Evan was predicting the upsure in IPO deal flow earlier this year, it was folks like you that laughed and ridiculed. Now, though, the deal flow recovery is somethin that everyone and their brother knows about, as you say. But because lending is involved, a lot of so called experts and amateurs want to point to recent history in the US, where toxic assets were tied to lending, even though China's lending is not at all tied to such toxicity. It is a mistake to look at recent history in the US to predict near to mid-term future for China's economy. Classic mistake...

China needed its stimilus and the increased lending to spur on a quick recovery. Such things are never a great positive, but was needed. Many so called experts predicted that China would not rebound until well after the US markets did, that China, no matter the stimilus and lending, would be in very dire straits because drop off in exports to West. However, very quickly we found out that China has a very stron domestic consumption economy and can decouple itself in some ways from US, when need be. China now consumes more cars than US does, for example, a shock to many auto industry experts that felt this would not happen for many years and certainly not in '09 when China was supposed to collapse without US exports. The recovery in China this year is quite remarkable and now we are only left with questions from the bears as to whether China is completely out of the woods yet, etc... Just 6 months pior, the same bears were predicting potentially years before a rebound would happen in China, well after an eventual US rebound. How wrong they were... Now those same bears are making noise again because they have this healthy correction going on in stock prices in China. These poor bears were left out of the party the past 6 months, so let them have a few weeks of correction to make some noise and write their doomsday articles.

I think we all know that when people, such as evan, make positive bullish rebound predictions about China (as he has for a long time, since the downturn first happened in China last fall, regarding biglaw deal flow), they open themselves to a lot of ridicule on boards like this. Evan though has been consistent and mostly right, even though he is not an economist. Not bad for a recruiter... I am impressed.

75, hahahahahahhahaha

I couldn't help laughing when I read your post.

The massive lending in China is not tied to toxic assets?! Are you out of your mind? The real estate market has been going through the roof lately. Real property in most cities is 50%-100% overvalued. That is not toxic??

China has a very strong domestic consumption economy? Even the Chinese communist party is not thick-skinned enough to make this kind of statement. The vast majority of Chinese people make less than $2000 A YEAR. And there's no social welfare system. People are saving all they can in order to pay for housing, healthcare and education.

What the he*l are you talking about??

A large portion of the government loans went into the stock market and real estate market instead of real economy. Well-known fact.

Very toxic.

77, and I am not previous poster, The China stimilus, unlike in the US, was implemented in months (in US 90% or so has still not been spent) and a lot of it went into manufacturing. People have been investing in the real estate market and stock market and both are overvalued in China.

The toxic assets are not simply overvalued real estate but the packaging of high risk mortgages under some bogus A+ rating. Their are not so many high risk mortgages in China as there was in US in '05 to '07. Much different situation than US overall. It is a quickly growing economy (by at least 8% a year), an emerging market, and an economy where consumption is rising meteorically and will continue to do so (even while consumers have much higher savings rates in China than in US), as the economy continues to emerge. Already the 2nd or 3rd biggest consumer economy in the world, it will continue to rise, even in global recessions, as long as the govt. takes right measures. Of course, when the US markets return and the export market in China return that will make things even all that much better.

Here is the not so big news (but apparently you did not get the memo): If China's govt did not have the stimilus, there would not have been the amazing recovery this year in China. Sure, of course sherlock holmes that you are you have figured out that it is better to have booming economy without stimilus needed. Wow! what a concept! However, in the midst of a global crisis, China had to take such drastic measures and of course it will cause a small bubble and overvaluing of the market, because stimilus packages in hundreds of billions and all the new lending can't go on forever.

But, I agree with previous poster who pointed out the obvious: The doomsdayers only 6 months ago or so were predicting total collapse of China markets and no possible recovery until US markets recovered. Ooops. They got that one about as wrong as possible. But now they and the amateur sleuths like yourself can step in and argue that the recovery may not be complete yet, that China may not be quite out of the woods yet, that there may be a correction in market that continues for some weeks or months, and this could be bubble. Hey if you are totally wrong in predicting the doom and gloom then proclaim the astounding recovery in '09 in China is a big bubble. Once there is not the big bubble bursting, some months from now the doomsdayers will focus on something else.

77, I realize that many people in China are very poor unfortunately, but the domestic consumption economy is growing there at breakneck speed actually and the amount of poverty there is reason there is so much upside in the continued growth of the domestic consumer economy there. Have you been living in a cave to not know that China's domestic consumption has been a major catalyst in its amazing rebound this year? As long as you are comparing China's consumption to other economies on the planet Earth, China is doing just fine these days (with tremendous upside because of all the people there that have still not joined in on the consumption and may not for years). Did you get the memo that China now consumes more cars than the US and it is predicted that China will never again consume less cars than US in any year in the future? What do you think of that? Did you know that China consumes more gold than India?

Like a lot of biglaw associates with big dramatic opinions but so little real world knowledge, you are predicting doom and gloom for China (you probably predict same for US). It is much more interesting and fun I know, but not always reality and usually not reality. And predicting economics based on dramatic events of another country in recent past is almost always dead wrong. Damn, where were you and other doomsdayers to give us such wonderful insight when US was booming in '06 and '07? You did not have a clue, right? Just thinking recent history then would repeat itself right? Now though you and the other doomsdayers are here to give your infinite wisdom on how China will bubble up just like US did because... well... the US did. That is your logic right?

Let me guess. You predict Steelers to win superbowl again this year right? But you could not predict them last year, right? US overlending caused severe recession so surely this will happen in China, right? Damn, what will happen in US when the 90% of the stimilus that has not been spent is spent? According to you and other doomsdayers we should just pitch a tent and live off the land at this point, I am sure...

How can one compare US recent situation with China now, when China is an emerging market and experiencing high end growth? Surely, things are not so rosy in China's economy, due to the problems in the world economy still hanging over us, but to say that lending and stimilus in China now will cause crash like overlending did in West, just because it did in the West, is just plain silly. There are so many factors in China's economic growth that are different than in US. The US is a beat down economy now, but still the most established and important economy in the world, by far. China is the biggest emerging market in modern history and the distant 2nd most important economy in the world.

79-81, 77 here. Boy, aren't you excited. Your posts are as long as they are wrong, but I unfortunately don't have time to rebut point by point as it is getting very late here. So let me just say this: no, I'm not comparing China's economy against that of the U.S., and I'm not basing my predictions about China on what happened in the U.S. recently. I could care less about the U.S. For your information, I am in China. I know exactly what is going on. I don't need you to tell me what China is like.

I wish the comments were this interesting every day :-)

I find the economy in China to be extremely complex and not so easy to predict, even more difficult than in US. However, it appears to me to be common sense that China's domestic consumer economy is keeping things relatively strong there (relative to the rest of the world and giving China the 8+% growth they wanted this year). It also appears to be common sense that, while there will be ups and downs in a complex huge emerging market like China, the trend is very much upwards for the forseeable future. The US and West markets will return to normal within a couple of years and China will be even stronger then. Most important to me is the deal flow of biglaw in China and it is relatively strong (relative to other markets) for the forseeable future.

I just made 3 '06 cap markets placements in the past week in HK, 2 at the same firm, due to the recent dramatic increase in IPO work. Many firms remain on hiring freeze even while getting busy in HK / China, a number of US firms in China are still not busy, but most firms are busier than they were earlier this year and some are slammed and some are hiring.

I am probably too bullish on China's economy sometimes and I am not an economist so I don't suggest paying much attention to my economic predictions. But I do have a pretty good handle on how deal flow is going for biglaw in China at present and for the forseeable future. I am having such discussions with leading partners in the market just about every day after all.

77, because you are in China and know exactly what is going on, I hope bloomberg and cnbc and other such networks interview you soon so we can all have your wisdom (I could not resist :-)

Evan, so how many placements have you made so far this year and in what practice areas? We need a monthly update :-)

Hi evan. Thank you so much for writing these informative articles.
I am a 2L with median grades at a top 5 law school and I am a Chinese national (read and write at native level). How is my likelihood of getting an offer to start in HK/China immediately after I graduate law school. Thanks!

85, that is a good question. Although the 2L summer hiring is obviously down, you should be able to get nice offers for your 2L summer. If you receive an offer from a firm that has China offices, then you can ask if you can split your summer between NYC (or whichever US market you are interested in) and HK, BJ or SHG. That would improve your chances of being able to start as 1st year associate in China. However, it still may be a bit of a long shot in this market especially. Just recently, before the global economy tanked, there was a substantial increase in number of 2L summers of US firms in Asia (not a large number but an increase from extremely small numbers prior).

If you were staring at a new firm as 1st year associate right now, it would be probably more possible than two years from now to start in China, on short notice. This is because China offices are suddenly busy and US offices are still overstaffed. It would still be not so easy to arrange though and two years from now could be bigger long shot. Going through a summer program is probably the best bet.

What you can control much more is landing at a top firm in US for 2L summer, getting a permanent offer and getting in a strong M&A or cap markets practice (preferably in NYC) so that you can be very marketable in HK / China as 2nd or 3rd year associate).

84, only 16 thus far this year, but of course the low number is due to the bad market. As of end April I only had 4 placements, then one in May and then 10 over the summer, so things are obviously picking up. It is still a slow and very selective market though.

Practice areas are cap markets, M&A, PE / M&A and fund formation. 11 associates, 3 counsels and 2 partners. Associates have been '01 to '07 level. Until this past week, the most junior I had placed since January was '05, but just placed 3 '06s. I am close on 3 more placements now so hopefully that number will go up to 19 soon.

Love the China bulls on these posts. Keep dreaming, guys!

K&E is opening an office in Shanghai in November.

30. Dubai is beginning to pick up again. Abu Dhabi and Qatar have strong project finance work with the new oil and gas projects that are underway. Oddly, in Dubai, the strongest demand is for US/UK litigators. Especially those who have construction litigation experience. If you want the sovereign fund work, be nice to Latham.

90, thanks for your post. Associate friends and those I have placed in Dubai the past few years are for the most part not so busy, but most are not in PF and oil and gas. The sovereign fund work, especially out of Abu Dhabi, has been ok this year.

When the new strata regs are implemented in UAE, strata lawyers from Australia will likely be in demand in UAE.

89, Yes this is of course true and pretty well known by now. A number of firms will be opening new mainland offices in the near future. I usually know who is opening where in Asia about a year or so in advance (and in many cases I am recruiting for not yet opened offices months in advance) but not always sure when the information is public, so don't mention in public forums.

thanks Evan

Robert, how is the BCG lawsuit against you going? The one in which BCG alleges it was anonymously disparaged on ripoffreport.com and, pursuant to a court order, it was discovered you were the author of these comments. That's the suit in which BCG alleges you were fired from BCG for an unethical kickback scheme, attempting to pay an associate under the table at Preston, Gates and Ellis. How's that going?

94, You obviously have some agenda hot shot. I am not Robert but I suggest before you assume claims made against Robert are true you read the many ripoff reports and a bunch of other very easy to find onlin claims of fraud re Harrison Barnes of BCG. I also understand that Robert has sued Mr. Barnes right back recently, for defamation re the false and fantastic claims made about kickback scheme.

Here is one of the hundreds of reports of fraud easily found online re Mr. BArnes for you:

http://ripoffreport.com/Employment-Services/A-Harrison-Barnes-La/a-harrison-barnes-lawcrossin-c8d44.htm

94, 95 here again. The ripoffreport pointed out above, as well as others, allege all kinds of potential fraud and improprieties by Barnes and his companies, but when I wrote "reports of fraud" above those are of course only allegations and claims by anonymous persons and not statements of fact. But damn, there are so many of them... It is alleged that Robert made one negaitve comment, not the hundreds out there... The claims of some fantasy of past kickback scheme is pure nonsense...

In any event I suggest you hold your horses and wait for the case you are so excited about to be resolved, and knowing what I do about some of the parties involved, I am thinking that it will be resolved very quickly in the defendants' favor.

1:50, is bringing up that case your last best hope at being able to compete with these guys? I read the complaint; it was crap. I doubt Kinney's losing a lot of sleep over it. You, like that case, are clearly a loser. If you're from BCG, you ought to know that you're setting yourself up for a suit from Kinney if these allegations about an "unethical kickback scheme" are not accurate. That's defamation per se, my friend. But on a more philosophical note, what is an "unethical kickback scheme," anyway? Seems to me that the only payback that's unethical coming from a recruiter is one that's not paid on time....

No, this isn't Robert, this is "Albert."
http://www.jdjournal.com/2009/08/07/bcg-attorney-search%E2%80%99s-barnes-sues-competitor-kinney-recruiting/

98, you must have missed the news that Robert sued Barnes right back, for defamation, due to the post on JD Journal you are linking here (which is Barnes' website).

The 10 million dollar lawsuit your link alludes to above has no legs, full of false claims, and will be short-lived. The suit Robert filed against Barnes will not go away on the other hand. I am sure Robert is not in the slightest worried about this nonsense.

You sure do seem excited by it though. Sorry to dissapoint...

Evan, is it ok to apply to different Asia offices of the same firm or is that a no no, similar to US? I would like to move back to Singapore because that is where I am from and have family, but I realize that there are more opportunities in HK and mainland China. I don't want to hurt my chances in HK / China by applying to Singapore offices, especially if there is little chance I can land in Singapore in this market.

100, it is totally fine. Unlike in US markets (where you would never apply, for example, to a firm's Boston and NYC offices), in Asia most firms appreciate candidates being flexible and open to different markets in Asia. There are some exceptions of course, just like with any general advice.