Open Thread: Let's Talk Bonuses

It’s the last week of October. You know what that means? It means it is time to start rampant speculation about this year’s bonuses!
Last year at this time, we wrote:

Whenever the bonuses are announced, most people we are talking to agree that the overall numbers will be somewhat down from last year. A common thought is that top law firms will adopt the same basic bonus package as last year, but drop the “special” bonus compensation. This will cost associates between $10K and $50K depending on your year.

A mere three weeks after we wrote that, Skadden announced its bonuses, and our speculation proved to be prescient. For Skadden associates, the 2008 bonus was essentially the 2007 bonus minus the “special bonus.”
Of course, not everybody followed the Skadden plan. Cravath announced its bonus the next day, and it was half of what Skadden offered. Most other top law firms ended up following Cravath, and the market was set.
Last year firms were preparing for one of the worst legal economies that anyone can remember. What can we expect this year?


At various points during this recession, some people have expected that there would be a $0 bonus for 2009. Not true! DLA Piper has already announced that it will pay something, even to first years:

DLA won’t make a final decision until January. But as of now, we have a market floor for bonuses, and it is greater than zero! That is pretty awesome.

Bonuses will most likely be smaller than they have been in the past. Not that there’s anything wrong with that.
The most common speculation we’ve heard is that this bonus season will defy the follow-the-leader market matching of the past. People expect that firms in a stronger financial position will pay more than firms in a weaker financial position. It sounds like simple economics, but we can’t remember the last time there was systemic bonus separation among top law firms.
Will this be a year in which similar Am Law 100 firms pay significantly different bonuses? If so, bonus transparency could be more important than ever. We expect bonus decisions to be made relatively late in the year — or in January of next year — as firms try to gather a complete picture of their own 2009 revenue numbers and as much market information as possible from competing law firms.
Finally, perhaps this year more than ever, we’ll have to pay special attention to the various hours requirements for bonus eligibility. Over the summer we conducted an hours survey. It revealed that many associates are woefully low on billable hours. It appears that many people won’t be making 2100 hours or even 2000. So don’t let the bonus headline fool you; some firms might pay a significant bonus at an hours threshold that the vast majority of their associates have no shot at hitting.
What are your expectations heading into this bonus season? And don’t forget, if and when you do get concrete bonus news, send it into tips@abovethelaw.com (subject line: “[Firm Name] bonus information”). Bonus news is the kind of thing firms generally want people to know about.
Earlier: Open Thread: Associate Bonus Speculation
Associate Bonus Watch: Here Comes Skadden
Associate Bonus Watch: Cravath Offers Less Than Skadden
DLA Piper Previews the 2009 Bonus Season
Are Some People Still Living in 2007?

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