Fantasy SCOTUS: Predictions for Citizens United v. Federal Election Commission
Ed. note: ATL has teamed up with FantasySCOTUS, the premier Supreme Court fantasy league. (For more background, check out this WSJ Law Blog post.) On Fridays, the 10th Justice will analyze league voting to predict how the Supreme Court may decide upcoming cases. This is the 10th Justice’s first post on ATL.
Welcome to the first installment of Predictions of the 10th Justice, brought to you by FantasySCOTUS.net. The league has over 1,300 members, who have made predictions on all cases currently pending before the Supreme Court. In this feature, we analyze these predictions, and try to explain how the Supreme Court will resolve top cases.
The first case we’ll look at is Citizens United v. Federal Election Commission, commonly known as the Hillary Movie case. This case is a showdown between free speech and campaign finance laws.
In 2008, the D.C. Circuit ruled in favor of the FEC that Hillary: The Movie could not be shown on television right before the 2008 Democratic primaries under the McCain-Feingold Act.
Out of 286 predictions, 192 members (67%) predicted that the Supreme Court will likely reverse that decision, and 94 members (33%) predicted that the Court will affirm the lower court’s decision.
Next we will explore the decision vote distributions and how the Justices will vote.
On this bar graph, the 9-0 and 8-1 Affirm splits each garnered less than 5 votes, along with 7-2, 8-1, and 9-0 Reverse. This graph reinforces the predicted outcome from the first chart. Most members are predicting a 5-4 Reverse, while those predicting an Affirm were more moderately split, slightly favoring a 5-4 split over a 6-3 split. Overall, the 10th Justice predicts a 5-4 decision reversing the lower courts holding.
How will each Justice vote? Predictions at The 10th Justice.
(42) 
Comments
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First!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! First in the family!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Associate Emeritus
dorks
Third!
FANTASY SCROTUS
1300 people with way too much time on their hands.
The starter stirs the justice of darkness. The justice of darkness affirms Hillary Clinton in thunderous excitement. A legitimate disorder laughs the motion picture away. Why won't Hillary Clinton rant to the justice of darkness? Does Hillary Clinton study? The justice of darkness clicks!
Just utter, complete, pathetic FAIL all around.
BORING
RIP, PE. It is a shame you burned through the family fortune before your passing and got JaKe's offer revoked. JaKe, get to work, you cog!
Who actually plays this? Seriously. Are these the people I compete with on the job market? Do they have some sort of secret clan?
While the idea of a SCOTUS fantasy league sounds fun, I refuse to read anything by Lat's Fed Soc fuck buddy Josh Blackman (a/k/a 10th Justice).
NERDS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Do you think that one of the Emerituses got his IP address banned, and in the process, revealed that there is one user behind all of the Emeritus derivatives?
Elie, can you tell us this guess is correct?
Just when I think lawyers can't get more lame, they prove me wrong.
Yep. this is def a NERD ALERT. I don't even read SCOTUS opinons. I'd rather read how to make a "SO CO and LIME." HEE HEE.
Associate Emeritus
seyfarth chicago incoming associates deferred until Oct. 2010
Open Thread: what's up w/ all these deferrals?
16, do you think those dudes will ever actually matriculate? what will they do in the meantime?
Associate Emeritus
Duck, I was at PE's funeral. He died from a heart attack. Let the old man rest in peace. If you had seen JaKe and Wilhemina overcome with grief as I did, you would not slander his name.
"Bitch, I aint gunna tip you cuz my ancestors wuz slaves!"
17: i hope some eventually do, for all of our sakes. hopefully they can get a clerk job or something in the meantime. those who are deferred are smart and will get jobs over the lower tier students. if i'm at a lower than top 50 school now, i'm thinking of dropping out...
I don't think we needed a pie chart to understand the affirm/reverse split, especially not one that large.
CA Bar results out today!
20, my name be Associate Emeritus. I agree w/ your statements though. I was a federal clerk for 2 years. It was a great experience.
Associate Emeritus
The Associate Emeritus thing is DOA. Please stop embarassing yourself.
Also, no more murder novel. PE will return if it stops.
let's guess
the trademark company
The Trademark Company
AE:
60,000 new LSAT takers + continuing deferrals of qualified top-tier students = bad news for future lawyers and lawyer salaries.
Not that this is breaking news to anyone. Still, I understand why people are applying. The tech jobs are overseas, the finance jobs have faltered and everyone has a liberal arts degree.
My kids are going to get specialized skills. That is, if there are any jobs to be had in this country in 20 years.
17, 20
(Cross post)
Dear David,
That you allow this person to man the comment section, with his overt threats to its inhabitants who merely call him out for what he is, a stupid person who focuses on black issues (which likely comprise about 3% of your readrship) and evidently cannot take any criticism, compels me to stop viewing your site.
Your site formerly worked. That you haven't the gumption to can this fuck tells me you have zero management skills.
I've read this blog for years, contributed to it, sent in tips, but I am through with it. Best,
ATL staff,
I'll recruit 5 additional readers to make up for your loss of #27.
Quack.
27 is just mad he missed last night's Klan meeting.
It would be awesome if Vegas opened betting on SCOTUS:
I'll take a two game parlay-- Vikings (-11) and affirm on Citizens United v. Federal Election Commission (-0.5)
this is quite possibly the dumbest idea i have ever seen.
this is a really really good idea.
32--no. Who wants to read boring cert petitions and decide a case? Very much a stupid waste of time, but I guess for people who have no jobs, it works... :-/
29,
I concur.
Criticizing a black man for his undeniable race-baiting, commenter-threatening posts is irrefutable evidence of racism.
If you tell it how it is, I will play The Card. You don't want me to play The Card.
EQUALITY SECURE
I have a degree in abstract math with graduate-level statistical analysis work. You call the above "analysis"?!?
ATL should be employing ME, No Job 3L, as The 10th Justice.
Lat, come on, stop living out your pipe dreams.
This feature doesn't particularly interest me, but at least it's appropriate for a law blog, unlike certain recent additions to the ATL lineup.
Don't worry, 34, your fellow Knights are very proud of you. For the Fatherland!!!
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I'm imagining it will be a lopsided decision to affirm, not 5-4. Guessing 7-2, but it could be unanimous. Sotomayor and Thomas will buttress each other, with Thomas actually bringing the conservatives along to reconsider precedent regarding corporate "rights."