This Week in Layoffs: 11.07.09
Ed. note: Above the Law has teamed up with Law Shucks, which has done excellent work translating all of the layoff news into user-friendly charts and graphs: the Layoff Tracker.
It was pretty hard to miss this week’s big news: unemployment crashed through the 10% barrier, hitting 10.2% in October - the highest level since 1983 (and, of course, worse than predicted). Underemployment also hit record levels, with the number of self-reported disenfranchised and under-utilized people reaching 17.5%.
Republicans jumped on the numbers as a sign that Obama’s package has failed, and the White House countered that it has saved almost 700,000 jobs. But that claim doesn’t even come close to addressing the original estimates and is completely unmeasurable. Still, the administration is reconsidering ideas it had previously rejected, like a highway bill and a business tax credit for new hires, even as they ask for two versions of a budget: one with flat spending and another with a 5% cut.
Law firms got their place in the MSM sun this week, as Bloomberg used a former law-firm employee as an example of increased migration to areas perceived as having jobs:
Some people are pulling up stakes and moving to where they think the job prospects may be brighter. Beth Rubin, 41, lost her position as a receptionist at the law firm Goldstein Bershad & Fried, PC in Southfield, Michigan, in October. The resident of Ferndale, a Detroit suburb, is now selling her furniture and moving to Georgia. “I’m looking to get a job in Georgia, and I don’t know about the job market there, but I can tell you Michigan is horrible,” Rubin said in a telephone interview.
Of course, anything has to be better than Detroit.
More on the highs and lows in the legal sector, after the jump.
Of the 190,000 jobs lost in October, 5,800 were in the legal sector (seasonally adjusted). The Law Shucks analysis of law firm layoffs in October tracked eight firms laying off 221 people (61 lawyers, 160 staff). That was actually fewer than September.
November is already looking worse, though. Just one week in and four firms, Dickstein Shapiro, Day Pitney, Goodwin Procter, and Clifford Chance, have had layoffs reported.
The American Lawyer cautions that there is at least one more major obstacle looming: collections.
A difficult year is about to get harder. It’s the start of collection season for law firms, and the normal Christmas rush seems destined to run smack into fresh demands for deeper discounts. Adding a shiver of fear to those events are continuing rumors of coming partner bloodbaths. The glib talk revolves around two purported problems: some partners really have had little work all year, and some firms have done a poor job of keeping their members informed of just how far off budget the firm is. Dollops of pain seem likely to fall on many heads.
Layoffs have become just one tactic of many for firms. Deferrals remain another hot topic as firms fervently wish for their problems to be solved for them, if only they can procrastinate long enough. Winston & Strawn is one firm employing the head-in-the-sand method (combined with a de facto salary cut by giving a below-market stipend), as it announced it will further put off its incoming associates’ start dates. We had to laugh when we read that Shearman & Sterling preemptively announced the deferral stipend for the graduating class of 2010.
And even when firms proclaim that they’re proactively going out and addressing the issue, execution falls short. Case in point: Morgan Lewis and its announced intention to move off lockstep. Eventually. Despite seeming to have a plan over the summer, the firm has since shelved any change in its compensation structure indefinitely. This, by the way, is another example of why large law firms should hire professional (non-lawyer) managers.
The other idea being tossed about, because it reduces cost without involving much unpleasant disruption (and is therefore palatable to lawyers) is salary rollbacks to 1998 levels. If we recall correctly, that would be a base of $97,000. We’re more certain that late 1999 was when Gunderson Dettmer set off the arms race with the bump to $125,000 for the class of 2000 (back when "class of" meant both the year in which the person graduated and started working) and $20,000 bonuses for first years. In any event, that number was pulled out of thin air by a consultant who works for law firms, so take it with a grain of salt.
Still, it wasn’t all bad.
Last week, we closed with optimism that there were good reasons for firms to pay bonuses this year, and we were right. On Monday, Cravath announced bonuses, and late on Friday, Cleary matched. Interestingly, there has been grousing from both sides: some claimed that bonuses were in poor taste this year; others that they were too meager.
We threw in our two cents with The Case for Bonuses, which fleshes out the points we touched on: they’re an important morale booster in this difficult year; and clients’ year-end results are going to be extremely good.




Comments
FIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIRST!!!
Second
1 and 2: weak
Thanks Democrats, for making the economy worse.
Good thing Obama and congress are all over repairing the devastated economy. Oh . . . wait. No they're not. They don't seem at all concerned about the economy. Has anyone told them?
Recently debated with spouse about a trip to the cinema. She expressed interest in Paranormal Activity or Saw VI. I told her reading ATL would be far more frightening. I hate it when I'm right.
For the retarded among us (that would obviously include me, since I'm a 2L), what salary are salary implications for 2nd-7th year associates if base drops to ~$100K? Do they continue as before, or does everyone take a haircut?
I am assuming, of course, that they remain employed at all...
Told you I was a retard, please nix the first use of "salary" in #7...
What's the deal with Winston? The head of their NY office says he wants to grow attorney headcount 50%.
http://www.law.com/jsp/article.jsp?id=1202435160288
But the firm can't bring in new associates on schedule?
According to the Wall Street Journal that was delivered to my door this morning, the nation's unemployment rate hasn't been this high since midway through Ronald Reagan's first term in office. I'm sure the wackjobs can explain why it's Obama's fault now but wasn't Reagan's fault then, but we all know it's bullshit.
10--
Reasonable republicans/conservatives/disenfranchised democrats don't blame this on Obama. We will hold him accountable for not delivering on his promises and fixing the mess he walked into, however.
We gave Reagan a second term because his plan worked.
@10, Volcker had rates up around 17% early in Reagan's first term to fight the stagflation which began under that asshat Carter. Thus, probably not Reagan's fault. Obama is having to deal with a ridiculous lack of SEC oversight under Clinton/Bush II, and thus probably not BO's fault either.
This may be tough for you, but Carter and Bush II were both dickweeds, and Obama has the potential to be as great as Reagan (in fact faces similar challenges and political opposition). There, see?
Is it my economy yet?
Big firms can by all means drop salary down to $97K, but midlaw and boutiques probably won't follow but will instead start picking off the best young associates.
Best of luck V100!
10 - Reagan's aggressive plan worked, but I'm not even asking for that much. I think everyone would feel at least a little better if Obama and congress would even TRY to help the situation. Hell, I'd give them some credit even they even acted like it mattered to them. Instead they're holding weekend congressional sessions (with Obama in attendance) to urgently vote on a health care bill that won't go into effect for FOUR YEARS. Someone explain how they prioritize issues for me, please.
I find it interesting that the larger Detroit firms have made only very minor cuts, with it being nothing like the firms in the larger cities.
Detroit may be in bad shape, but it has not hit the major firms in terms of lawyer retention...at least not yet.
Obama's solutions: (i) tax Peter and give to Paul; and (ii) borrow from China and give to Paul. Will this work?
17--
Too bad Paul wasn't productive and able to generate wealth for others.
Look at you sheeple arguing about democrats vs republicans. They're both the same thing, agents of the bankers and corporate elite that are looting the country.
17, but if Paul takes $1 stolen (I mean, taxed) from Peter and buys a hot dog from Susan for $1, doesn't it increase the net wealth of society by $1.50? This mythical phantom gain is called the "multiplier" or some such thing. Do Obama's people really believe that, or am I correct that Geithner looks really nervous and worried these days?
19, you may be on to something.
Who's arguing about Democrats vs Republicans? It seems most are just saying that the executive administration and the congress don't appear to be concerned about the economy, and aren't doing anything to address it.
O M G the redneck tea party hicks are taking over ATL!!!
Formula for posting on ATL:
1. Watch Glen Beck.
2. Write comment.
3. Repeat.
Only one consumed by blind devotion could say that it is appropriate for congress and Obama to address only health care while the nation is floundering in the worst recession since the Great Depression.
Mystal is the WALRUS!
22: Ignore the so-called redneck tea party hicks at your peril. Do I smell another 1994? I believe I do.
THANKS, Obama!
Btw, where is Biden? Did he also get laid off?
Laid-Off Corporate Lawyer’s Song
I
“You are the very model of a lawyer not essential,”
They told me on a Friday in a manner lackadaisical,
“Retaining your position has become uneconomical,”
Concealing homicidal rage, my face appeared quizzical,
I did not understand how I’d come to be disposable,
I ran all of my deals well, from simple to formidable.
I billed unseemly hours, with seamless web my only muse,
The work product was excellent, as stated all my job reviews!
Chorus:
He billed unseemly hours, with seamless web his only muse,
His work product was excellent, as stated all his job reviews!
II
But then the lending market tanked and I became superfluous,
So why, I have to now ask, did I take all of your abuse?
From FIRPTA Certs, to SPAs, I'd made my hours billable,
But all I ever got from you were aches gastro-intestinal,
Vacations missed and weekends worked, I still became expendable,
I am the very model of a lawyer not essential.
Chorus:
Vacations missed and weekends worked, he still became expendable,
He is the very model of a lawyer not essential.
- p0wned associate
19: Michael Savage?
I'm a fan.
15, you forgot to add that this "high-priority" health care gov't takeover plan will also cost us TRILLIONS we don't have...
Surely this will help the economy.... (eye roll)
Liberalism is a mental disorder.
21 and 22:
Uh, that's Glenn Beck, not Glen Beck.
Another redneck moron who jes' can't keep up wif' you brainy lefties.
S/b 22 and 23.
Dang it all to hell. Hard for me to stitch up this white hood AND read the comments, all at the same damn time.
Lucille! Get that pig out of the slop out back, and tell JaKe to quit foolin' aroun with the mare!
Lester (31)
Frog Balls, AK
Elie / Lat -- Will you post an updated list of the firms that still have frozen salaries?
Without this information, comparing bonus numbers is not very informative. If frozen firms want to be "market," they are going to have to pay higher bonuses or do what Latham did and unfreeze.
22- Just wait till 2012, the "tea party hicks" will have taken over more than just ATL. Move to Canada, pussy.
Workers unite!
Due to to Obama's bizarre prioritization, Republicans' prediction about universal health care will come true. If those in charge don't 1) reduce taxation on job-creators; 2) stop allowing mass outsourcing; and 3) take aggressive steps to end the under valuation of the yuan, the new health care system will be massively over burdened by people seeking treatment for malnutrition because they can't afford to put food on the table.
The Census Bureau -- which came up with the 47 million uninsured number -- states that only 6 to 8 million people are chronically uninsured.
The bill being debated will leave about 6 million people uninsured according to the latest estimates.
In other words, the only effect this plan will have is to empower government and cost us more.
Read all about it:
http://www.washingtonexaminer.com/opinion/columns/More-OpEd-Contributors/The_truth_behind_the_Census_Bureaus_insurance_figure.html
The bill ALSO allows Obama to throw people in jail for choosing to not buy insurance -- I thought Dems were PRO-CHOICE... but I guess not. Only if it results in killing white babies, I guess.
37 - Please don't try to distract Democrats from substantive debate with facts. Thank you.
What was I thinking. I forgot that facts and logic need not stand in the way of a power-hungry ideology!
- 37
What's going on at Milbank?
"What's the deal with Winston? The head of their NY office says he wants to grow attorney headcount 50%."
Maybe he thinks he will get rainmakers in to get it done. I mean, after all, no other firms are interested in hiring lawyers with a book of business, so some second rate Chicago biglaw satellite is well-positioned to really make a splash in NYC.
/pause
HA HA HA HA HA HA HA
What a shit profession. We should be manufacturing widgets, for christsake.
Jonathon Lee Riches impregnated octomom
http://www.aolcdn.com/tmz_documents/1106_octo_gosselin_wm.pdf
For the little boys and girls here who weren't yet high school graduates under Reagan, I recall his solution to the great recession of the early 80s was to massively raise taxes and massively raise deficit spending (partly sold as the biggest defense buildup in the history of mankind).
But God forbid Obama raise taxes and run huge deficits just like Reagan...
Oh and Carter inherited his mess from Ford and Nixon - it was Nixon's Fed that created the massive stagflation that Volcker had to strangle. But to be fair, Nixon was trying to figure out some way to pay the bill for Vietnam and the Great Society, just like Obama is trying to figure out a way to pay for TWO "Vietnams" and a massive Medicare prescription drug entitlement.
I'm not happy with Obama's coddling of Wall Street but as this pathetic comment board shows, the last thing Obama needs is hundreds of thousands of whining over-educated shithead finance professionals (bankers, lawyers, traders, analysts) running around blaming everyone else for problems of their own creation. And that is what would have happened if we had nationalized Wall St like common sense says we should have in March.
FIRST to announce that The National Socialist American Workers Party has just passed a bill they think gives them the power to force me to buy insurance. Bwahh, ha, ha. Not gonna happen.
What WILL happen is a massive decrease in quality of medical care and an increase in cost. WHERE WILL all the CANADIANS go for health care now?
The Layoff Tracker charts look pretty interesting. Thanks for the tip.
The Layoff Tracker charts look pretty interesting. Thanks for the tip.
The Layoff Tracker charts look pretty interesting. Thanks for the tip.
The Layoff Tracker charts look pretty interesting. Thanks for the tip.
The Layoff Tracker charts look very interesting. Cheers :)
20,
I have an undergraduate degree in economics. Every dollar spent by government results in a two dollar increase in economic activity. The problem is that every dollar spent in the private sector results in five dollars of economic activity. IOW, government spending actually stifles economic growth. Those who currently control Congress should know this, but to them it is all about power.
For all you young liberal attorneys, Obama is going to put you out of work because when the economy slows there will be much less work.
Welcome to the real world and your socialist outlooks. You liberal lawyers have done this to yourselves.
52 - you're an awesome intellectual for thinking this all started with Obama and his socialist outlook. Especially considering that this downturn all went to shit during Bush's presidency.
12,
You can't ignore ACORN (Obama) and the Community Reinvestment Act (democrats), and Chris Dodd and Barney Frank; all of whom pretty much blackmailed banks and Freddie and Fannie (controlled by big-time democrats associated executives - FRankin Raines ring a bell, among several others; all of whom should have been prosecuted) into making loans to people who could not afford them.
When Bush tried to institue serious financial accountability, Frank, Dodd and the Democrats prevented it.
tax revenues for the states and feds is falling off a cliff due to the lack of employment and business activity----soon very soon those who buy our debt are going to stop or demand much higher interest rates---when that happens and it will the game is over----this health care bill however laudible its purpose along with the payoffs to wall street and entitlements that are not paid for will bankrupt this nation---its simple math either cut spending dramatically or raise taxes which given our current economic state will only lead to less revenue and a worse economy----or devalue the dollar to pay our debts and buy a loaf of bread with a wheelbarrel full of dollars---it can happen here---and im afraid theres no stopping it---
Some intersting little pieces of wheat in here amongst the chaff. Enjoy the weekend everybody.
- 10
Maybe I've missed this in other comment threads, but I'm surprised I haven't seen inflation-adjusted numbers for the potential starting salaries being thrown around. According to the Bureau or Labor Statistics inflation calculator, $98k in 1998 dollars is nearly $130k in 2009 dollars; $125k in 2000 dollars is nearly $156k in 2009 dollars.
We might not expect big law partners to know much about economics, but surely someone should be reminding them of how the value of the dollar changes....
Our lives are hollow. Aren't they?
So much politics . . . .
Rolling back salaries to $97k? Will the billing rates be lowered concurrently?
Today, I would not start in BIGLAW for less than $160. BIGLAW's model plans for 75% of those that start to have moved on within five years. Given that statistic, in a well informed transparent world (which BIGLAW is not, of course), 75% of those that start should expect to be moving to a different position, e.g., a mid-sized market, smaller firm in a big market, government, a new career, within five years.
Anyone that thinks he or she might not be part of the 25% that make a run on partnership should consider starting off somewhere other than BIGLAW. The decision point for many, the bait that lures us into thinking we might be among the 25%, has to be the starting salary.
If BIGLAW offered anything lower than the current starting salary, anyone that recognized that they might fall into the 75% group would bypass BIGLAW and start directly in the mid-sized market. The higher starting salary is what compensates for the lost opportunity costs and detrimental health effects attendant to spending years in BIGLAW. $97K just does not make up for that.
It seems the only option is to leave the Union and create a second union of states which actually follow the Constitution. Once all the taxpayers leave, the socialists will be unable to pay for their power grab. The blue states will fall into disrepair (California has been working on this for decades), and the red states will include all the innovation.
Of course, Obama might follow his idol, Lincoln, and attempt to slaughter 620,000 of us -- just like Lincoln did -- but perhaps we'll be able to put up a better defense.
Who's with me?
It seems the only option is to leave the Union and create a second union of states which actually follow the Constitution. Once all the taxpayers leave, the socialists will be unable to pay for their power grab. The blue states will fall into disrepair (California has been working on this for decades), and the red states will include all the innovation.
Of course, Obama might follow his idol, Lincoln, and attempt to slaughter 620,000 of us -- just like Lincoln did -- but perhaps we'll be able to put up a better defense.
Who's with me?
45 - "I recall his solution to the great recession of the early 80s was to massively raise taxes"
Are you kidding? In 1982 the top margin was dropped from 69.13% to 50%. In 1987 it was dropped to 38.5%, then 28% the following year. 65 years of top marginal rates at 70-94% was wiped out in six years.
Do you just make shit up that you wish was true and say it to people? You might be the biggest moron alive. I can't believe how stupid you are. You're incredibly dumb. Idiot.
RECORD: Newly-elected democrat breaks 4 campaign promises in less than 24 hours.
http://www.gouverneurtimes.com/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=7623:owens-to-break-campaign-promises&catid=60:st-lawrence-news&Itemid=175
But I'm sure he did it for the children.... FASCISTS.
46 - you're wrong. The bill the Democrats lovingly passed will put you in PRISON for failing to buy health insurance and failing to pay the thousands in "penalties" if you don't.
And what's more, after first giving hundreds of billions of dollars to their campaign financiers, the banks and Realtors, OBAMA AND THE DEMOCRATS FLAT OUT LIED ABOUT NOT RAISING TAXES ON PEOPLE MAKING UNDER $250,000.
Flexible Spending Accounts have been cut from the current limit of, I believe, $7,000, to $2,500. If you're someone who actually USES an FSA, for example, to pay for expenses of an illness whose expenses are not always fully covered, this will directly increase your taxes by a thousand dollars plus. I'm firmly in the middle class, making well under $200k collectively in my household, and if this bill passes, my taxes will rise substantially.
OBAMA AND THE DEMOCRATS ARE LYING AGAIN.
Would like to see a report concerning
BigLaw's layoff of staffers over 40 like the receptionist mentioned - some HR folks bragged that getting rid of older workers would help bring down not only payroll costs but health insurance rates.
It is economics 101 that the best way to jump start an economy is to raise taxes on business and productive workers to pay for free abortions and health care for illegal aliens.
66, lol. That is exactly what the dems think, though.
Please forward the "YOu Lie!" sticker to everyone you know; or the "tOtalitarian" sticker, for that matter:
www.AntiObamaSticker.com
Saying that 62 pwned 45 would be a gross understatement. That guy really must be an idiot.
BANKRUPTCY SECURE.
At first I was pissed that O was playing so much golf, breaking so many promises, and generally accomplishing nothing.
Now - I see that the more time he spends on leisure activities and working on his swagger - the better our country will be able to recover from his presidency (maybe by around 2050 or so).
Latham is hiring 3rd rate laterals from toilet firms/schools to replace the laid-off ivy grads.
This legislation is great news for my dentist -- maybe he'll finally get the $15,000 I owe him. Either way, I'm off to the sluts! Slots! I meant slots.
71 - Does that mean I, as a student at the bottom of the T20, now have a chance at Latham?
total non-partisan question:
why do all middle-aged republicans on the Internet feel the need to grossly overuse capital letters. even if you make a valid point, it makes you look crazy. please stop.
Because we have lost faith in your ability to determine, recognize and comprehend what is important.
Did Cahill lay off litigators on Thursday?
9,
You would think that Winston would have learned from its mistakes. They opened offices in Charlotte, Beijing, and Hong Kong in the midst of one of the biggest recessions since the Depression. All of those offices have been big net losers because of their reliance on m&a and the finance industry.
The NY office also brought over corporate and restructuring people from Thelen, Thacher, and Cadwalader etc. Of course that is not exactly working out as planned. Now they are getting some Nixon Peabody corporate finance types who were ready to be pushed out by NP. I guess Winston wants to double down on stupid.
The NY office headcount is down about 15-20% from it height and Elkin is talking about increasing headcount to 300? lol.
Really? Clifford Chance had layoffs last week? How many?
45- "For the little boys and girls here who weren't yet high school graduates under Reagan, I recall his solution to the great recession of the early 80s was to massively raise taxes..."
Um, no. It was the exact opposite, idiot.
The fun thing about being a liberal is that when the facts don't support you or it would take you too long to actually do some research, you can just make shit up -- none of your fellow Democrats will know the difference anyway.
73
Latham is the place for you. Especially if in addition to everything else, you're lateraling over from a horrible firm.
It is amazing how dumb a person 45 is.
52 -
You should get your money back on your economics degree.
74: Well, speaking as one middle-aged Republican, I guess it's because you people don't use capital letters at all, and appear unfamiliar with the use of interrogatory punctuation.
Who do you think you are, e.e. cummings? stfu
Our lives are hollow. Aren't they?
Are lives our hollow, aren't they?
After much thought, I have come to the conclusion that only 85's life is hollow.
I am a jobless 3L at Michigan and I want to kill myself.
Don't worry, 87, just think of yourself as as TRAILBLAZER. Millions of Americans are also without jobs -- it's the way of the future!
Thanks, Democrats!
So many silly posts, blaming some political party, or even some individual for a situation that is better viewed as the culmination of a 15 year bubble in legal services.
Yes, BigLaw has experienced a bubble, which is now bursting and will probably continue to burst or deflate for years to come. Think 1996, because that's probably where we're headed back to.
A little history-- the bubble had two legs or phases-- the first in the 1990's and the second during this decade. The first phase was driven primarily by high tech, and the powerful combination of (1) the transition of the PC from a working tool to an everyday appliance used by virtually everyone in the developed world, and (2) the rapid and dramatic evolution of the internet. These were world-shaping events which happened to coincide and drove huge increases in productivity and profitability for the economy and corporations generally. They created entirely new practice areas and increased demand for legal services at a rate that exceeded the rate of growth of the overall economy. This technology-driven phase of super-growth has now peaked; high tech companies are today, with a few exceptions, growing at pretty much the pace of the overall economy. The PC and internet are now ubiquitous. The phase was historically unique and will not recur in our professional lifetimes.
The second phase or leg of the legal services bubble arose from a nexus of products and markets related to financial services-- things like securitization, structured finance, leveraged lending, private equity and the like. Call it complex finance. All forms of complex finance relied on two things--extremely cheap capital (afforded in part by the Fed's overly-accomodating interest rate stance in the early part of this decade), and, as it turned out, a massive mispricing of credit risk by the market. Complex finance was manna from heaven for BigLaw, and even not-so-big law. (As to the latter, middle market lending soared during this decade, because of the ability of the securitization market to off-load credit exposure of banks into the capital markets, permitting them to reload and re-loan.) Today, complex finance is dead or so badly mauled that it no longer supports anything like the number of lawyers, or rates, that it once did. Some observers think it can pick itself up off the gurney and learn to walk again, but I tend to disagree. Complex finance, because it was complex and not transparent, was based almost entirely on trust. That trust is shattered and will not quickly return. Perhaps in another generation, but not in the next 3- 5 years.
How do we know the market for legal services was a bubble during the 1996- 2008 time frame? Bubbles involve non-sustainable growth in both profitability and market size, and the evidence of this for BigLaw is clear and extensive. Consider:
1) First year associate salaries reaching as high as $160,000, a figure that has to be the highest level of compensation for persons starting out in ANY discipline, even those that require years more training than does lawyering.
2) Law firms growing at sustained rates of 10% or more for over a decade, when the economy was growing at half that, at best.
3) Billing rates increasing across the board at rates of 10% (on top of the already-built-in inceases driven by associates advancing to the next year).
4) PPP numbers growing at sustained rates well in excess of profitability numbers for other industries.
etc, etc.
These are all bubble indicators and economic bubbles, once they deflate, rarely reinflate within a short time frame.
So, forget the political finger-pointing, since politics are virtually irrelevant to both the history and the resolution of this situation. The resolution, it seems to me, will play out according to one of the following:
(i) BigLaw finds a replacement driver for tech and complex finance, and after taking a few steps back, resumes its inexorable climb, riding on that. (Renewable energy perhaps?)
(ii) Complex finance returns, based on some combination of government support and improved (more transparent) products. Wall Street celebrates.
(iii) BigLaw reverts to circa 1996, shedding about half its peak size and a good chunk of its profitability, and resumes a "normal" growth curve.
My sympathy to those of you who are today starting out and need to decide which of the above scenarios (in addition to perhaps others) is most likely to transpire.
Dont look now, but there is a Hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico. Could this be our chance to see that Obama doesnt care about black people?
89 - "(1) the transition of the PC from a working tool to an everyday appliance used by virtually everyone in the developed world, and (2) the rapid and dramatic evolution of the internet . . . happened to coincide"
They happened to coincide? You're an idiot.
89, you are truly an idiot, "hese were world-shaping events which happened to coincide and. . . They created entirely new practice areas and increased demand for legal services at a rate that exceeded the rate of growth of the overall economy."
Except for placing a short term premium on patent attorneys, new technologies and industries do not stretch the legal profession. That's what business lawyers do everyday, get new business on their feet.
Let me guess you were history of science major and you are a 1L.
64, it's actually even worse than you describe.
Not only is it a big tax increase on the middle class, it's a tax on the sick, even if you're lower class but not so low that you're paying zero taxes anyway.
The people who actually need health care and use FSAs the most will be the ones getting fucked the hardest here! (Especially if they need medical devices - beyond the FSA reduction, the extra 2.5% tax on devices will also get passed right on to consumers, so there's another nice little smack in the face of the ill and disabled.)
Big tax increases on the ill, disabled and middle class, violating clear and oft repeated promises before even one year in office - now that's change you can believe in.
And if they lied about this, what else have they lied about on this bill? Exhibit 1: No increase in middle class taxes. Exhibit 2: No, we're not taking over health care and your insurance will not be adversely affected by this.
89 - excellent
89, are you for real?
"(iii) BigLaw reverts to circa 1996, shedding about half its peak size and a good chunk of its profitability, and resumes a "normal" growth curve."
What do you think all those lawyers that are being "shed" going to do? Forget what they know and go work a Circle K register?
Once the genie is out of the bottle, there is no putting him back. Anybody that is being "shed" will take the client list, a gig of documents, and the firm's net realization sheet, and open a new firm undercutting biglaw by X percent. It's a race to the bottom. Just ask any of practice group that "shed" senior associates and junior partners. They are losing existing clients entirely or by piece work to new firms formed by people they "shed."
In this respect, he worst off firms are the ones that laid off first. The firms were already in trouble, gave generous severance, and thought the associate would simply at firms down the street. Well, the associates are out on the street hungry, and willing to poach any client.
The only lawyers that will be "shed" are 3Ls. No skills, no danger.
28: loved it. You need to repost for the next layoff thread.
Who do you guys think is dumber, 45 or 89?
Both have a startling lack of understanding of modern history . . . it's a tough call.
I'll vote for 45, but it's extremely close.
No, no. 89 is dumber. If you don't know anything about the development of the personal computer/internet, you're just about as dumb as they come. It is a close call, though.
Finally received my Vertu in the mail today (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vertu). It is worth more than most of your bonuses, cogs.
I can relate to relocating to a better job market. Quit NYC and moved to the DC area, networked and found a federal litigation job. Cheap to live in Maryland and even though the money is less, the cost of living is less, and the quality of life is much better than in NYC -- housing, car, yard, nature, outdoor time, weekends/holidays. No blackberry, either.
89, your focus on the legal industry misses the bigger picture: unemployment is over 10% in ALL INDUSTRIES. It's not that Americans decided they don't want to work anymore.
IT'S THAT GOVERNMENT has be dicking around with things rather than taking a hands-off approach to the economy. The result is that their unnatural policies have created a mess, built on a false house of cards. It's all crumbling down.
Meanwhile, China's gov't is becoming MORE open, more free-market oriented, and guess what: All our jobs are going there. Duh.
Conservatives understand the free market; liberals abhor it, thinking that they have some deep knowledge that allows them to do a great job at regulating the market. OBAMA hasn't ever run a fucking roadside fruit stand! Who the HELL thinks he has ANY credibility as an executive? He's a simpleton law professor, folks.
The gov't is made up of a weak, pathetic group of power-hungry morons who need to be give as little influence over our lives as possible.
But now, the IGNORANT congress has moved to take over our damn health! Who the hell do these people think they are? They're on the verge of de-legitimizing the federal government, and if things continue as they are, state succession will be the only remaining option.
102, "state succession?" Go back to watching NASCAR and Glenn Beck.
101, You work in DC and you choose to live in Maryland? High tax/high real estate Maryland is better than low tax NoVa? Keep up the good work.
See, this is the problem with FTT students. They have no background in economics, history, or philosophy, but instead major in something ending in a "studies," do well on a completely arbitrary 3 hour test, and then are admitted to an FTT on the basis of an inflated GPA (often from the FTT undergraduate ranks, which hand out over 40% A's as a matter of course) and an ability to think like a robot for three hours.
Then, being FTT students, they believe they are gods, or at least demi-gods, who are obligated to hand down their pearls of wisdom to the mere mortals sitting at the base of Mount Olympus in eager anticipation of the invisible proclamation from the aristocratic jesters. In their delusions of grandeur, the self-crowned rulers of the country make overgeneralized, incorrect statements with a certainty matched only by their lack of general knowledge or real-world reasoning ability (which is precisely why they are at an FTT in the first place).
"Liberal" or "conservative" (as if the two words have any real meaning anymore), it does not matter. All are avatars of H.L. Mencken's famous line: "Every problem has an answer that is simple, easy, and wrong."
Jake troll, try getting some better ideas than last month's CNN Money website.
Good laugh from all the repug comments today. You guys are such fucking morons.
Obama/Biden 2012
95 - The Circle K? Are you from San Dimus?
Whereas 38 is clearly intellectually inferior to a jellyfish, commenter 54 made the post of the year:
"When Bush tried to institue serious financial accountability, Frank, Dodd and the Democrats prevented it"
If you seriously believe that, I have a bridge to sell you...
Res Ipsa is the only worthwhile commenter left on this site.
Frat Stud and DOJ Secure are good for some cheap laughs, though. The rest of you are utterly worthless.
You're a bunch of emotionally-disfunctional wankers with few social or occupational skills, whose sole source of self-esteem is the fact that many of you scored 170+ on a standardized test which measures "abilities" which have little to do with anything in the material world. The fact that you scored a few points higher on the LSAT than the dude sitting next to you does not mean that you are a genius and everyone else is an idiot. And if you doubt the truth of this statement, then riddle me this, Batman:
If the graduates of the so-called "elite" universities and graduate/professional schools (you know, the people who have been running this nation for at least 150 years) are so goddamned smart, then why is the nation in such a terrible crisis right now?
I'll answer the question for you: you were all so blinded by your own egos that you failed to realize that your own destiny was inextricably tied to the middle-class and working-class people you so disdain. You were so enamored with the Randroid/post-Reagan socioeconomic worldview that you forgot that in order for capitalism to work, people have to have sufficient disposable income to actually buy the shit you are selling.
You just wanted to grab what you could before the shit hit the fan. For those of you who were able to do so, congratulations, you figured out a way to secure your own future (though probably at the expense of the nation's economic health).
For those who could not do so (most of the people here), sorry. You showed up a day late and a dollar short, and your predecessors, the masters of finance and consulting whom you strove to worship and emulate at every turn have sold you out. If you are lucky, you might get a job at some law firm you once wrote off as "TTT", serving the middle- and lower-income people you so despise. If you are not lucky...look on the bright side, if you end up working for minimum wage, you might be eligible for food stamps. But considering that most of you probably oppose both minimum wage and public assistance of any sort, it would be a bit hypocritical of you to go that route.
Going to law school was the best decision I could have made. I'm so glad that I went. I don't understand what everybody is complaining about. Just accept a lower paying job and get over it; our skills are not as valuable as they use to be.
I have to say, I agree with res ipsa and 110. I am also happy about something else. While TTT has commonly been used on this site, I started calling people and places first tier toilets. I never said FTT, but that was quickly stated after my first couple of comments. First tier schools are worthless when you figure out after a year and a half that you hate what you are doing, but you are already so in debt that you are stuck.
I am a god. Elie featured my comment about him getting hungry over a friable issue of fact in a blog. I am practically writing this site and the comments now, given the fact that my comment was featured in a blog post and the fact that my comment is now a buzzword on this site.
I hereby request that Lat give me a job as a blogger. Come on dude, you need a straight white male with no prejudice to deflect all of the criticism, such as the walrus shithead. I will write for you for less than you pay your NYC bloggers. I live in a place with a lower COL. Come on Lat, I'm fixing to graduate and I dont want to be a frickin lawyer. I will still have bills to pay. I attended a first tier toilet. I wish I hadnt.
Democrats for Congress 2010, Obama Biden 2012 - Taxing the middle class, sick and disabled because you know, their lobby didn't pay to put us in office! (Guys, if you want to know where our policy priorities are, review the top PACs. For the 2007-2008 cycle, the Realtors we're #1 by a wide margin, therefore, among other things, even aside from massively subsidized financing, in our "stimulus" we're spending $43,000 per additional house sold to try and move houses and artificially boost the price of housing for renters and owners alike, half of which goes directly back into the pockets of the Realtors as commission even after they worked extra hard to burn our economy to the ground! And of course, 8 of the top 10 PACs contribute primarily to Democrats, aligning pretty directly with our policy priorities, so we're not exactly playing hide the ball here. See how the game is played?)
And if you believed that stuff about not raising taxes on the middle class last time when we didn't even get one year into office before passing our first increase, we won't do it this time either, we promise!
110 is one of the best comments I've read on this site in a long time...and I mean that. You need to get a regular username and post more stuff like that. I can't stand these fucking self-entitled crybabies. Nobody gives a fuck about your (lack of) career prospects, so STFU.
"Of course, anything has to be better than Detroit."
Whoever wrote that can kiss my ass.
110 FTFW! Onward, good soldier!
115, I bet you enjoy feather-bowling
107: mouth breather
The worst part is that a lot of these laid off attorneys also get stuck with no compete clauses that keep them from working with other firms in the area, I just read about it from this other law blog: http://lawblog.legalmatch.com/2009/10/27/competing-with-non-compete-clauses/
If anyone is a mouth breather it is likely people from HYS over some lower ranked school. The lack of self-awareness on this board is astounding, half these people here are social vegtables.
Good thought, ably articulated, 120.
You're certainly no mouth breather.
It is just so sad the neoconservative pablum that tries to act as a stand-in for history. 45 is right on about the Reagan record. He made some tax cuts and then massively raised taxes in the middle of a huge recession. That tax increase, the deficit spending and a massive real estate bubble created by bank deregulation helped stabilize the economy until it fell off the cliff again circa 1989.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tax_Equity_and_Fiscal_Responsibility_Act_of_1982
oh and the little people also were massively taxed too courtesy of Reagan and Alan Greenspan through the 1983 Social Security Amendments though arguably it was done to "save" Social Security. Yeah right.
That's right 122, keep posting about Reagan, anything to try to distract focus from the fact that Obama and the Democrats are aiming to raise taxes on the sick and disabled of the poor and middle class less than one year into their administration after pledging not to increase them on anyone making under $250,000! And after pushing unemployment to double digits for the first time in decades no less!
Now that's change you can believe in!
ah yes, if only the poor, sick, disabled and middle-class had ole Dubya to protect them from mean socialist Obama
hilarious - keep at though GOP - one of these days even gays of Filipino descent will finally grow disenchanted with your nonsense
Um,
1. That bill still didn't bring taxes anywhere near as high as the were when Reagan cut them.
2. Apparently you missed this part of the Wikipedia entry:
"President of the United States Ronald Reagan agreed to the tax hikes on the promise from Congress of a $3 reduction in spending for every $1 increase in taxes."
Needless to say, the Democratic House didn't follow through on that promise, but bitching about Reagan for deficit spending as a result of signing that bill is just plain stupid.
Honestly, anybody who knows anything about politics knows Reagan cut taxes. The fact that you're learning about all of this for the first time from some internet website trying to justify whatever you want to defend at the moment isn't our fault. Try studying history on your own once in a while instead of tossing out this ad hoc shit.
The Obamatards citing wikipedia to defend BO. Too funny.
Anyone who knows anything about politics knows Reagan cut taxes for the wealthiest Americans (including himself) and redistributed the burden on the other 98% of America and borrowed the rest from Japan.
Worked pretty well. Until it didn't.
"Reagan cut taxes for the wealthiest Americans"
Reagan lowered the rest of the tax rates, idiot.
can someone please tell me about the clifford chance layoffs
http://www.cbo.gov/Spreadsheet/6133_Tables.xls
I know the GOP and its acolytes are allergic to facts, but Reagan didn't do much for most tax brackets. But he was a grand slam for wealthy taxpayers (including corporations). Life was good back in the 80s if you were a defense contractor, savings and loan banker, real estate developer or just plain old filthy rich. And we are still paying for it today...only worse.
129: Apparently CC had no layoffs ...
129: Apparently CC had no layoffs ...