Ed. note: ATL has teamed up with the 10th Justice to predict how the Supreme Court may decide upcoming cases. CNN has called FantasySCOTUS the ” hottest new fantasy-league game.”
Hillary: The Movie did not have much impact at the box office, but it’s become quite a hit at One First Street. It’s so popular there that SCOTUS brought it back for a second showing, ordering a re-argument in the campaign finance case Citizens United v. Federal Election Commission.
The Hillary Movie case is a showdown between free speech and campaign finance laws. In 2008, the D.C. Circuit ruled in favor of the FEC that Hillary: The Movie could not be shown on television right before the 2008 Democratic primaries under the McCain-Feingold Act.
Some have suggested that the case could bring down McCain-Feingold. The voters at Fantasy SCOTUS believe Justice Kennedy will swing to deliver the blow that will take it down.
Out of 556 predictions, 67% predicted that the Supreme Court will likely reverse the lower Court, while 33% predicted that the Supreme Court will affirm the lower court’s decisions.
The vast majority of members predict that the case will be a close 5-4 split. Two hundred and sixty-three members voted for a 5-4 reversal, while 121 members voted for a 5-4 affirmance. This prediction of the league mirrors the predictions of close Court watchers. Very few predict that the case will be unanimous in either direction.
But what about the Supreme Court’s long delay in issuing the opinion? Read on at the 10th Justice.







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