Who will replace Justice John Paul Stevens? While pundits, savants, and oracles across the SCOTUSphere pontificate and read Article III tea leaves, FantasySCOTUS.net conducted extensive and detailed polling to predict the next Justice. We have invited our nearly 5,000 members–who represent some of the closest and most ardent Court watchers–to weigh in on the vacancy, rank the candidates on the short list, and give their views on the potential nominees.

(We are still collecting data. Sign up for free at www.fantasyscotus.net and voice your opinion.)

This is the first in a series of posts breaking down his data, as we attempt to add some certainty to the vast amounts of uncertainty emanating from the penumbras of the upcoming vacancy…

We narrowed our short list to 8 possible candidates: Hillary Clinton, Merrick Garland, Elena Kagan, Janet Napolitano, Deval Patrick, Kathleen Sullivan, Cass Sunstein, and Diane Wood. The following chart lists the nominee, followed by her average favorability, on a -10 to +10 scale, the percentage of predictions listing her at the top, and the percentage of predictions listing her at the bottom. Next to the percentages are the raw number of votes each nominee received for placement at the top or bottom of the list respectively.

Is Kagan definitely the pick? What about Garland and Wood? The analysis of the results, after the jump at JoshBlackman.com.


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