Thomas Jefferson School of Law Believes Its 2011 Graduates To Be Kind of Stupid

Much to the ABA's embarrassment, Thomas Jefferson School of Law released some papers to reassure students that even with a 33% first time bar passage rate (and an incomprehensible 13% pass rate for returning test takers), TJSL was still well within ABA parameters. So who is to blame for these alleged "outlier results"? According to the law school, Bar/Bri, and the students themselves....

Report on Bar Programs, December 2011

In this report we look at the July 2011 bar exam as compared to prior bar exams. We examine trends in the TJSL bar pass rates in an effort to better understand the findings.

TJSL changed its grading curve and that change is reflected in the mean GPA of successful bar candidates in 2011 as compared to the prior 5 years. In 2006-2010, successful candidates averaged an LGPA of approximately 2.96. In 2011, that mean is 3.24. Because the LGPA distribution is different in 2011 than in prior years and will continue to change in the next 1-2 years under the new curve, we defined results in terms of graduating class percentiles. We found major differences between honors graduates (top 30%) and non-honors graduates (lower 70%).

July 2011 California Bar Exam

In July 2011, the TJSL California first-time bar pass rate was only 33.3% (42 of 126). This is one of the lowest pass rates in the school’s history and was consistent across the school’s own internal program and other commercial programs (primarily BarBri). For those who enrolled in TJSL’s internal Full Program, the pass rate was 31.1% (14 of 45); for those who enrolled in other programs, the pass rate was 34.6% (28 of 81).

Because these results were inconsistent with prior results indicating higher pass rates for the internal program, we conducted some additional analyses. Of the 42 passers, 35 (85.4%) were above the median in LGPA (cumulative law school GPA). Only 6 people below the median actually passed the California bar exam in July. Moreover, no one in the bottom 25% of the class passed the bar exam. In a nutshell, the bottom half of the class drove the bar pass rate down to these low levels.

A disproportionate number of high GPA students chose other programs. The median LGPA for other programs was 3.26 compared to a median of 2.99 for the internal Full Program.

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Among graduates with LGPA below the median (the bottom half of the class), the pass rates were 4.9% (2 of 39) for other programs and 16.7% (4 of 24) for the internal Full Program.

Among all who graduated without formal honors (that is, all but the top 30% of the class), only 9.1% of those who took other programs passed (5 of 55), whereas 22.2% (8 of 36) who took the internal Full Program passed.

February 2011 California Bar Exam

In February 2011, the TJSL California first-time bar pass rate was only 44.9% (22 of 49). This too was a low bar pass rate. For those who enrolled in TJSL’s internal Full Program, the pass rate was considerably higher at 60% (12 of 20); for those who enrolled in other programs, the pass rate was 34.5% (10 of 29). In other words, the pass rate for other programs was steady at approximately 35% across the year.

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Of the 22 passers, 18 (81.8%) were above the median in LGPA (cumulative law school GPA). Only 4 people below the median actually passed the California bar exam in February. Again, no one in the bottom 25% of the class passed the bar exam.

Among graduates with LGPA below the median (the bottom half of the class), the pass rates were 5.6% (1 of 18) for other programs and 33.3% (3 of 9) for the internal Full Program. For other programs, the pass rate for the lower half of the class was only about 5% across the year.

Among all who graduated without formal honors (that is, all but the top 30% of the class), only 19.0% of those who took other programs passed (4 of 21), whereas 41.7% (5 of 12) who took the internal Full Program passed.

The 2011 California first-time taker results represent a downward departure from the general trend of the past 6 years. To explore this, we examined results for the students who graduated with honors (the top 30%) compared to all others. Results are summarized below.

These results indicate that the pass rate for the top 30% has remained relatively stable over the last 6 years. The large decrement in the last 3 years can be traced to the non-honors graduates (the lower 70%). This cohort had shown a steady increase from 2006-2008, with a high point of a 58.2% pass rate in 2008. Beginning in 2009, there was a general drop-off to 36-40% over the next two years. In 2011, that rate dropped in half, to 17.7%. 2011 represents the first bar cycle where the majority of the non-honors graduates went to other programs. Other programs result in equal or better pass rates than the Full Program for honors graduates, whereas the reverse is generally true for non-honors graduates, except in 2010.

Changes Noted in 2011

In 2011, there was a general drop-off in utilization of the TJSL Full Program. Whereas the majority of non-honors graduates had come to the Full Program in prior years, in 2011 over 60% went to other programs (primarily BarBri). At the same time, every instructor in the Legal Synthesis program and in the Full Program noted a significant drop not only in skill level but in ability to focus attention and utilize information presented in Legal Synthesis. The non-honors graduates in 2011 entered bar preparation (the Full Program as well as BarBri and others) markedly behind the level we’ve been accustomed to for 13 years. They did not have time to make up for the time they had lost during their final semester.
However, the historical trend has been that students who participate in the TJSL Full Program far exceed others in terms of eventual bar pass at all but the highest LGPA levels (where the pass rate is 100%), as illustrated below. Eventual bar pass underlies 2 of the 3 ABA Rule 301criteria for barpass.

California Eventual Pass Rates (Rule 301(a)(1), 2006-2011 Bar Takers



Results are more dramatic when we look only at those who were unsuccessful on their first attempt at the California bar exam, as shown below.

Eventual Pass Rates Among Unsuccessful CA 1st Time Candidates, 2006 – Present

Non-Persister Rates (1 attempt followed by no attempts for 2 bar cycles)

Moreover, graduates who are unsuccessful on their first attempt in California are less likely to give up if they prepared in the TJSL Full Program, compared to those who prepared elsewhere. Most of the difference is found among unsuccessful first-time takers in the bottom quarter of the classes, where 17.2% have given up any effort to enter the bar after studying in other programs. Only 6.7% of TJSL Full Program graduates have done so.