Fantasy SCOTUS

The Tenth Justice Fantasy SCOTUS League.jpgEd. note: ATL has teamed up with the 10th Justice to predict how the Supreme Court may decide upcoming cases. CNN has called FantasySCOTUS the “hottest new fantasy-league game.”
Tom Goldstein predicted Justice Stevens will retire at the end of the term. He’s getting his own sitcom, so it must be true  And in honor of Stevens’ looming retirement and the attendant circus, this week’s installment of the 10th Justice will consider Stevens’ behavior in the 14 cases that have been decided this term. We will show how users perceive Justice John Paul Stevens.

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The Tenth Justice Fantasy SCOTUS League.jpgEd. note: ATL has teamed up with the 10th Justice to predict how the Supreme Court may decide upcoming cases. CNN has called FantasySCOTUS the “hottest new fantasy-league game.”
In the four months since I launched FantasySCOTUS.net, nearly 4,000 people have signed up, and made nearly 8,000 predictions for the 81 cases currently pending before the Supreme Court. When designing the system, I decided to allow people to make predictions up until the moment a case is decided by the Supreme Court. On days when opinions are handed down, I lock down the voting once I see that the Court has issued an opinion for a specific case. On Wednesday, the Supreme Court announced Maryland v. Shatzer at 10:00 a.m. I did not lock down the votes until around 11:30 a.m. In this period, several members changed their votes to get more points.
Really? Cheating on a Fantasy League with no cash prizes? What would motivate someone to do this? And what should I do about it?

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The Tenth Justice Fantasy SCOTUS League.jpgEd. note: ATL has teamed up with the 10th Justice to predict how the Supreme Court may decide upcoming cases. CNN has called FantasySCOTUS the “hottest new fantasy-league game.”
Is the Supreme Court partisan? Although many perceive the Justices as mere political aids, do the numbers support this assertion? In this installment of 10th Justice, we will be exploring the perception that the Supreme Court Justices make their decisions based on partisan identity. For this purpose, we will be using a standardized majority ratio technique and confidence intervals to analyze Union Pacific Railroad, Salazar, Christian Legal Society, and McDonald.

double red triangle arrows Continue reading “FantasySCOTUS: Testing the Partisan Waters”

The Tenth Justice Fantasy SCOTUS League.jpgEd. note: ATL has teamed up with the 10th Justice to predict how the Supreme Court may decide upcoming cases. CNN has called FantasySCOTUS the “hottest new fantasy-league game.”
In this installment, we will consider which Justices will be found in the majority and which ones will be in the minority. Using the results from Citizens United, we will consider four of the biggest pending cases for this term, Quon, Christian Legal Society, McDonald, and Comstock, to show how predictions sort the Justices into majority and minority votes.

double red triangle arrows Continue reading “FantasySCOTUS: The Majority Shall Reign Supreme”

The Tenth Justice Fantasy SCOTUS League.jpgEd. note: ATL has teamed up with the 10th Justice to predict how the Supreme Court may decide upcoming cases. CNN has called FantasySCOTUS the “hottest new fantasy-league game.”
How large of a crowd do we need before the crowd becomes “wise”? In this week’s 10th Justice, we will be check how accurate our members predicted five cases recently handed down: Smith v. Spisak, Power Marketing, LLC v. Maine Pub. Util. Comm’n, Kucana v. Holder, South Carolina v. North Carolina, and Wood v. Allen. While these cases are not among the most important cases of the term, they still contribute important data points to test the predictive capabilities of FantasySCOTUS.net, and enables us to further understand the wisdom (and limitations) of our crowd of users. For a refresher on confidence intervals and margins of error in FantasySCOTUS.net predictions, check out last week’s column.

double red triangle arrows Continue reading “FantasySCOTUS: Testing the Wisdom of the Crowds”

The Tenth Justice Fantasy SCOTUS League.jpgEd. note: ATL has teamed up with the 10th Justice to predict how the Supreme Court may decide upcoming cases. CNN has called FantasySCOTUS the “hottest new fantasy-league game.”
How many SCOTUS watchers does it take to accurately predict the outcome of a case? How large of a crowd do we need before the crowd becomes “wise”? The wisdom of the crowds considers the accuracy of the collective opinion of a group, which in many cases may be more reliable than the opinion of experts. In this column, the 10th Justice tests the theory of the wisdom of the crowds. Based on the accuracy of our predictions in Citizens United v. FEC, the landmark campaign finance reform case, we will develop levels of confidence to determine how reliable our predictions are for four of the most significant cases this term.

double red triangle arrows Continue reading “FantasySCOTUS Predictions of the 10th Justice: How wise are the crowds?”

The Tenth Justice Fantasy SCOTUS League.jpgEd. note: ATL has teamed up with the 10th Justice to predict how the Supreme Court may decide upcoming cases. CNN has called FantasySCOTUS the “hottest new fantasy-league game.”
Yesterday the Supreme Court handed down Citizens United v. FEC, one of the most anticipated cases of the year. The Hillary Movie case was a showdown between free speech and campaign finance laws. In 2008, the D.C. Circuit ruled in favor of the FEC that Hillary: The Movie could not be shown on television right before the 2008 Democratic primaries under the McCain-Feingold Act. SCOTUSBlog has a fantastic round-up of coverage of this landmark case, which will send shock waves through the 2010 election season.
This is the first blockbuster case of the term, and the first real yardstick for the accuracy of the wisdom of the crowds. Were our 3,500 members able to accurately predict this outcome? How valid is the wisdom of our crowds?
On November 20, 2009, based on 286 predictions, 67% of our members predicted that the Supreme Court would reverse the lower court. Of these 286 predictions, 136 members predicted that the outcome would be a 5-4 reversal. This constituted 70% of all reversal predictions.
But since November, the league acquired over 2,000 new members, who made 600 additional predictions for this case. How did they do? And how did these predictions compare to the Supreme Court’s final opinion?
Also, we update the FantasySCOTUS.net leaderboard. Who is in the top 10?
Read on.

The Tenth Justice Fantasy SCOTUS League.jpgEd. note: ATL has teamed up with the 10th Justice to predict how the Supreme Court may decide upcoming cases. CNN has called FantasySCOTUS the “hottest new fantasy-league game.”

Welcome to the sixth installment of Predictions of the 10th Justice, brought to you by FantasySCOTUS.net. The league has over 3,400 members, who have made predictions on all cases currently pending before the Supreme Court.

By conducting a rigorous statistical analysis of 26 of the most hotly contested cases this Term, we have developed a descriptive model to elucidate how frequently a Justice will vote in the majority, and how this affects the building of majority coalitions on the Court. Additionally, these statistics paint a picture of how Justice Sotomayor, the newest addition to the Court, will vote, and which coalitions she will join. Finally, this analysis aims to answer the elusive question of how often Justice Kennedy will be in the majority.

double red triangle arrows Continue reading “FantasySCOTUS Predictions of the 10th Justice: Predicting Justices in the Majority and Probable Coalitions”

The Tenth Justice Fantasy SCOTUS League.jpgEd. note: ATL has teamed up with the 10th Justice to predict how the Supreme Court may decide upcoming cases. CNN has called FantasySCOTUS the “hottest new fantasy-league game.”
One of the most anticipated cases before the Supreme Court this term is McDonald v. Chicago. McDonald considers whether Chicago’s handgun ban violates the Second Amendment. While District of Columbia v. Heller established that the Second Amendment protects the right to keep and bear arms from infringement by the federal government, McDonald changes the target to the states.
McDonald pits the right to keep and bear arms against the rights of the states to enact gun control laws. Which argument has more firepower?

double red triangle arrows Continue reading “FantasySCOTUS: McDonald v. Chicago (Chicago Handgun Ban Case)”

The Tenth Justice Fantasy SCOTUS League.jpgEd. note: ATL has teamed up with the 10th Justice to predict how the Supreme Court may decide upcoming cases. CNN has called FantasySCOTUS the ” hottest new fantasy-league game.”
Hillary: The Movie did not have much impact at the box office, but it’s become quite a hit at One First Street. It’s so popular there that SCOTUS brought it back for a second showing, ordering a re-argument in the campaign finance case Citizens United v. Federal Election Commission.
The Hillary Movie case is a showdown between free speech and campaign finance laws. In 2008, the D.C. Circuit ruled in favor of the FEC that Hillary: The Movie could not be shown on television right before the 2008 Democratic primaries under the McCain-Feingold Act.
Some have suggested that the case could bring down McCain-Feingold. The voters at Fantasy SCOTUS believe Justice Kennedy will swing to deliver the blow that will take it down.

double red triangle arrows Continue reading “FantasySCOTUS: Citizens United v. FEC (a.k.a. The Hillary Movie Case) Revisited”

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