Ed. note: Above the Law has teamed up with Law Shucks, which has done excellent work translating all of the layoff news into user-friendly charts and graphs: the Layoff Tracker.
Regular readers of this column are well aware by now that the overall unemployment rate isn’t a particularly good indicator, but it’s the most-commonly discussed number so we use it. The predictions are always wrong, and the rate grossly undercounts the number of people any reasonable person would define as unemployed. But for all its problems, it’s not entirely useless to show trends.
According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics:

The unemployment rate fell from 10.0 to 9.7 percent in January, and nonfarm payroll employment was essentially unchanged (-20,000), the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today.

That’s what we’ve been harping on all along. Overall unemployment didn’t improve because of a flood of people going back to work; it improved because so many people fell out of the BLS’s definition. We remain frustrated by any definition of unemployment that doesn’t include people who got frustrated and gave up looking or whose unemployment had outlasted their benefits.

Continue reading “This Week in Layoffs: 02.07.10″

Ed. note: Above the Law has teamed up with Law Shucks, which has done excellent work translating all of the layoff news into user-friendly charts and graphs: the Layoff Tracker.
We’re coming down to the wire on the Law Shucks Lateral Tracker launch promotion iPhone 3GS giveaway. Read the announcement and the rules, then get those submissions in by midnight January 31 for your chance to win the phone or the other prizes.
Initial jobless claims dropped slightly last week, to 470,000, which was slightly better than the previous week, but once again not in line with the expected 450,000. That actually caused the four-week moving average of initial claims to increase slightly, which isn’t usually a good sign.

But there may now be cause for guarded optimism. The US economy grew by 5.7% in the fourth quarter, the fastest pace in six years. That spending was in infrastructure, not directly in jobs, but it could presage increased staffing. President Obama is hoping to spur that along with a one-year, $33 billion tax credit for small-business new hires and a payroll-tax reduction.

On the whole, though, the week in law-firm economic news was relatively good. Details after the jump.

Continue reading “This Week in Layoffs: 01.30.10″

Ed. note: Above the Law has teamed up with Law Shucks, which has done excellent work translating all of the layoff news into user-friendly charts and graphs: the Layoff Tracker.
Unemployment rose again last month, climbing higher in 43 states, which is particularly surprising when compared to the 36 states that reported improved numbers in November. Once again, it might have been worse, but for the curious ways in which the unemployment rate is calculated:

In another nationwide trend, long-suffering states like California and Michigan saw their jobless rates stabilize even as they continued to bleed jobs. That’s because thousands of frustrated workers gave up hunting for work and dropped out of the labor force, which means they aren’t included in the unemployment rate.

Contrary to common sense, the unemployment rate isn’t calculated based on the total number of people who don’t have jobs, so people becoming so frustrated they quit looking actually improves the number (even though they’re certainly telling their friends they’re unemployed because, you know, they don’t have jobs).

Overall, 85,000 jobs were lost in December (compared to a 4,000 job increase in November) – but 600,000 people left the labor force in the same period. So the numbers are even worse than the record levels they’re currently reaching. For example, New York’s unemployment rate is nine percent, a 26-year high, and New Jersey’s 10.1% is a 33-year high.

The trend isn’t looking much better lately, either. First-time jobless claims rose 36,000 to 482,000 last week, once again surprising economists, who had a consensus estimate of a slight decrease (although this week’s numbers might be slightly off due to estimating necessary as a result of the Martin Luther King holiday). That marks the first time the four-week rolling average has increased in 19 weeks.

But that’s the big picture. After the jump, the goings on in the legal sector.

Continue reading “This Week in Layoffs: 01.23.10″

Ed. note: Above the Law has teamed up with Law Shucks, which has done excellent work translating all of the layoff news into user-friendly charts and graphs: the Layoff Tracker.
If you thought unemployment and underemployment (which does include people who become discouraged and voluntary stop looking for work) were arbitrary and capricious, you’ll really enjoy the latest explanation from the White House.

The White House has abandoned its controversial method of counting jobs under President Barack Obama’s economic stimulus, making it impossible to track the number of jobs saved or created with the $787 billion in recovery money.

Despite mounting a vigorous defense of its earlier count of more than 640,000 jobs credited to the stimulus, even after numerous errors were identified, the Obama administration now is making it easier to give the stimulus credit for hiring. It’s no longer about counting a job as saved or created; now it’s a matter of counting jobs funded by the stimulus.

That means that any stimulus money used to cover payroll will be included in the jobs credited to the program, including pay raises for existing employees and pay for people who never were in jeopardy of losing their positions.

That lede is a little skewed, though – it was always impossible to track the number of jobs saved or created. The administration just finally realized that, and now the Republicans are going to have to find a new angle of attack after coasting for a year on easy cheap shots against the White House’s unsupportable numbers.

However many jobs the plan saved, created, or funded, unemployment ticked up again slightly last week, but the general trend is still flat or slightly improving.

Similarly, law-firm layoffs have slowed down, although there are still no signs of significant hiring. Developments in that little slice of heaven after the jump.

Continue reading “This Week in Layoffs: 01.17.10″