The Only Gorsuch Surprise Is That Anyone Still Expects A Surprise
The media may try and gin up controversy, but there's nothing to see here.
Judge Neil Gorsuch will soon sit on the Supreme Court.
There’s not really much doubt about it, and yet we’re still hearing rustlings from left-leaning corners of America that somehow, some way, this nomination process is going to careen off the rails — or at least provide some tense moments. I’m here to tell you that unless Judge Gorsuch killed Jon Benet Ramsey — and, for the record, Judge Gorsuch didn’t live in Boulder back then… or so he would have us believe — he’s going to be confirmed relatively easily.
Because, really, what is there to gain in blocking him?
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Oh sure, a handful of Democratic Senators with reliably liberal constituents will flex their muscles and talk big about a filibuster, but even if they could get enough votes together to drag this out, it would be the shortest run for an act of political theater since Ishtar: The Musical. As Politico notes:
Some embrace the tactics advocated by Sen. Jeff Merkley (D-Ore.) to wage a filibuster and bait Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell into trying to change Senate rules. The gamble would be that the Kentucky Republican doesn’t have the votes — or, if he does, that Democrats will win the next presidential election in 2020 and ultimately benefit from the new rules.
Or Democrats could wave Gorsuch through, reasoning that confirming him won’t change the balance of the court — but the next vacancy would, and they’d be left without a 60-vote threshold as a weapon.
If this filibuster idea wasn’t just a one-way trip to forfeiting the only possible check on future nominees, what would the Democrats do if McConnell called their bluff and just let Gorsuch wither on the vine? There’d be another nominee cut from the same cloth that they’d presumably filibuster all over again. Are the Dems really willing to normalize pure obstruction? Because they’ve worked pretty hard over the years to position themselves as the people who are serious about governing, in opposition to the people who are serious about making white people have more magic culture babies. It would seem a shame to throw that all away and give fodder to the “both sides do it” crowd of ill-informed cynics for some cheap applause from the exact same supporters who already fail to win you elections.
Ever since November there’s been an uptick in frantic left-leaning folks ready to recraft the Democrats in McConnell’s “Party of ‘No'” image, but it’s a half-baked plan. At their philosophical core, inaction is a win for conservatives — or at least a draw. Their supporters can get their rocks off on government shutdowns and leaving key posts empty for months on end because they can’t envision any value to government. Democrats, on the other hand, aren’t going to win until they can convince enough people to believe in government on some fundamental level. That’s not to say there isn’t room for strategic resistance, but holding up the Supreme Court isn’t going to earn plaudits for Democrats the way it might for Republicans.
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Besides, there aren’t enough votes for this filibuster nonsense. Oh, are the Democrats going to lean on Heidi Heitkamp to give in or face a primary challenge? Congratulations, that probably robs the Democrats of a Senate seat, and while Heitkamp may not help the party on the floor as much as the New Yorker subscriber base may like, her caucusing with them can be the difference between controlling all these committees in 2018 and watching Putin address a joint session.
Don’t be surprised if a handful of Democrats try to have the best of both worlds and vote for cloture to preserve the filibuster and avoid the “obstructionist” tag while ultimately voting against Gorsuch. The old “he deserves an up-or-down vote” cliché of the Bork era.
It may not be a satisfying ending to Trump haters, but it’s how this is likely going down.
Prediction as of T minus 5 days to Gorsuchgeddon: Cloture achieved, final vote 56 Yea-44 Nay.
Democrats paralyzed as Gorsuch skates [Politico]
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