Old Lady Lawyer: How Much Should Lawyers Fear The Future?
A new study should strike fear into the hearts of newbie lawyers as well as all lawyers, even the dinosaur ones.
As if newbie lawyers don’t have enough to worry about, what with student loan debt, escalating tuition, and a dearth of jobs, the Pew Research Center has come out with a study that should strike fear into the hearts of newbie lawyers as well as all lawyers, even the dinosaur ones. (Of course, that assumes that lawyers have hearts which, for many members of the public, assumes facts not in evidence.)
What Pew Research shows is that within the next fifty years, two-thirds of Americans believe that much of the work we humans presently do will be done by robots or computers. However, in a delicious piece of irony, few workers (no more than twenty percent) expect that their professions or jobs will be substantially impacted by such technology. More than one third believe that their jobs will be safe in fifty years, and roughly forty percent think that their jobs will probably exist.
So, are we going to be one of the smug one-third who think our profession will still be around in fifty years? We dinosaurs will definitely be taking dirt naps by then unless one or more of us has discovered what Ponce de Leon (Google him) didn’t, e.g. the fountain of youth.
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We already see the impact of technology on the legal profession:
1. Legal research. When dinosaurs needed to research, we headed to the law library, be it in a law library or in our offices. Even if our firms didn’t have a lot of books, we would at least have the codes, a digest or two, and of course the reporters for our particular jurisdiction, perhaps even a CCH set or two. Law libraries and the space they required were a big financial expense, both for the books and the space that housed them.
Online legal research requires no space. Laptops, desktops or whatever is used to access the internet have replaced standing at the copy machine for copies to take and read, but I think there’s something lost in online legal research. I know newer lawyers disagree. There’s something to be said for serendipity, for thumbing through books and finding something that applies to an unrelated case on your desk. You do have another case on your desk, right?
2. eDiscovery. Automation is a big step forward. There’s nothing more dreary, mind-numbing, (insert adjective of choice) that going through boxes and boxes of documents, emails, texts, instant messages, and the like to respond to document production. Discovery is a drag under any circumstances, and anything that can lessen that burden is a good thing, once the appropriate keywords and the appropriate vendor are chosen. However, the downside of this automated process is the loss of jobs. Granted, there will always be document review jobs, but fewer people are needed.
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3. Depositions. Remember when young associates prepared deposition summaries? That was another source of work for lawyers that’s now pretty much gone down the tubes. With real time transcripts available, along with key word indexes, and the like, another job for young associates has gone the way of the… should I say dinosaur? It’s too bad because reading transcripts is a good way to learn how to conduct a deposition and how not.
4. Trial prep and trial. Software has revolutionized both trial prep and trial. In dinosaur times, lawyers would schlep (and that’s the right word to use) boxes and boxes of paper on dollies, briefcases on wheels, or whatever mode of movable storage worked. Nowadays, it can be simply an iPad or a laptop, an overhead projector (if the court isn’t so equipped) and that’s it. The physical strain of lifting all those boxes through courthouse security is thankfully a thing of the past. Any dinosaur who is technically savvy is cheering, because, in many cases, dinosaur bones are not as strong as the bones of younger lawyers. (Spoiler alert: We may work out as much, but our muscle mass just isn’t the same. Something for all you younger lawyers to look forward to.)
We all know about the perils facing the profession: the outsourcing both here and overseas, the commodization and standardization of forms, the use of contract lawyers only when busy, and other practices that have become part of the legal landscape since Y2K. Remember how so many people (and lawyers hoping to create a cottage industry) predicted mass problems with technology at the turn of the century? That didn’t come to pass, but prognostications about changes in the profession have come to pass and will continue to do so. Just read any of Richard Susskind’s books, especially The End of Lawyers? Rethinking the Nature of Legal Services (affiliate link), if you have any doubt.
What is also fascinating about the Pew Research Center report is also the perception of “not me.” The changes might affect others in the profession, such as those who used to make a living preparing basic wills and trusts, handling business formations, simple divorces, but not us, we say. We’re immune.
We’re not immune, and if recent trends in the profession are evidence of this, we have only to look around and see the drop off in business, fewer lawyers entering the profession, reduction in lawyer and staff headcount, fewer court filings, and other indicia. Many of us scramble to stay afloat. It’s not a pretty picture.
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No robot and/or computer will change one aspect of the profession. When people have problems, which is why they hire lawyers (do clients ever call you just to say that they’re having a great day? I think not), they want someone to talk with. If you have ever seen the Stanley Kubrick movie 2001 A Space Odyssey, HAL is not the lawyer clients would want. Some argue that HAL would make the perfect lawyer. I disagree. It’s the interpersonal nature of law practice that separates lawyers from robots. It’s the judgment calls, the ability to see the gray, instead just black or white, which makes lawyers indispensable.
Jill Switzer is closing in on 40 (not a typo) years as a active member of the State Bar of California. Yes, folks, California, that state west of the Sierra Nevada, which everyone likes to diss. She’s had a diverse legal career, including stints as a deputy district attorney, a solo practice, and several senior in-house gigs. She now mediates full-time, which gives her the opportunity to see old lawyers, young lawyers, and those in-between interact — it’s not always pretty. You can reach her by email at oldladylawyer@gmail.com.
