Why Trump Won And Why It Will Work Out Great For Democrats

Trump won because he was the better candidate and he ran the better campaign.

 (Photo by Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images)

(Photo by Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images)

Several people have asked me recently why I have not offered my theory on the 2016 election, despite writing about Donald Trump regularly over the past year. The answer is that, for the last two weeks, I’ve been trying to get a clear head and make sense of it all. But, in the meantime, I’ve noticed that the same media gasbags who got the election wrong for over a year and a half have not been shy to tell us why Trump was really elected. We are being fed everything from “racial identity” to “Whitelash” to “Americans hate women” to “rural vs. city.” Oh, and my new favorite: “fake news” (as if true news exists). Can you imagine the sheer chutzpah required to offer your political commentary (with nary a hint of irony) after being wrong for over a year and a half?

Let that sink in: they were wrong for over a year and a half.

If you were wrong at your job for six months, you’d be fired.

When I made this point to a friend the other day, she said to me, “Well, in the week before the election, Nate Silver moved up his chance of a Trump presidency to 30%.” Pardon the disturbing analogy, but that’s like saying that out of all the drowning babies, yours floated at the top of the pool the longest. And, while you’re thinking about THAT, try NOT to laugh at the headline of this story published by The Atlantic this summer:

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Look, you’re welcome to live in the reality that others create for you, but when the truth comes around (and it always does), you will be as disappointed as the folks chanting “Not my President.” There are, as far as I know, only two people who correctly predicted in any serious way that Trump would win the election, and they’ve both been noticeably quiet since he won: Ann Coulter and Scott Adams of the Dilbert blog, the one writer I implored you to read throughout the election here, here, here, here, here and here.

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May I propose a simpler explanation? Trump won because he was the better candidate and he ran the better campaign. Novel, right? Think of it as the Occam’s Razor version of 2016.

Many people simply cannot accept the simplest explanation because it requires admitting that Donald Trump is smart. Well, Donald Trump isn’t just smart, he’s a genius. If you’re still having difficulty internalizing that truth, I would encourage you to revisit your bias around the word “smart.” If you’re like most people, the word “smart” conjures an image in your brain of someone like Neil deGrasse Tyson or Henry Kissinger — critical thinkers and articulate speakers who read lots of books with LOTS of footnotes — neither of which conforms with your image of Donald Trump.

But we only call someone a genius for accomplishing what almost all others cannot. You personally know loads of smart, successful people. But, in the entire history of our country, there have been less than a hundred nominees for a major political party. Of those less than hundred, there is only one who convinced a majority of the states to elect him, despite zero political experience, not to mention that he had to run against his own party. His rise to power is the most impressive game of chess pulled off since Cersei Lannister blew up the Faith Militant inside their own church. 

Face it: Donald Trump is a genius, and so is Hillary Clinton.

Donald Trump didn’t win because Hillary Clinton wasn’t a good candidate; she was a GREAT candidate. She had more brand recognition and political gravitas than anyone else in the DNC. She was the first female candidate and she was able to accomplish in the primaries what the RNC failed to do: eliminate the “people’s candidate.” Now, was Clinton Cash damning? Yeah. Was the private server staining? Sure.

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But — and liberals know this to be true — much of the reason people think Hillary was so unprecedentedly corrupt was that the Trump campaign did a brilliant job of selling the country on “Crooked Hillary.” To my friends on the right: whatever you think of #her, she was NOT as bad as the Trump campaign made you thinkIn his 60 Minutes interview, Trump said that the word “temperament” was manufactured on Madison Avenue, and he’s right. 

But, so was “Crooked Hillary.”

Trump’s constant refrain of “Crooked Hillary” trained the public to see patterns of corruption in everything Hillary Clinton did. There is no reason to presume that this message didn’t affect investigators inside the FBI. Do you think FBI investigators are immune from political marketing, or are they just the same as the other 100% of Americans who are NOT above politics? The “crooked” moniker stuck in no small part because Hillary was under investigation, but it also stuck because Trump knows how to use a megaphone. Can you imagine Marco Rubio or Rand Paul pulling off “Crooked Hillary”? 

For the last year, we’ve been subjected to an all-out marketing blitz by the best brains in the business, so don’t be surprised if you believed some crazy s%@#. It may take some more time to “unhypnotize” yourself, like Jon Stewart can be seen doing in this interview. And to those on the Right nodding your heads in agreement, just remember that a bunch of you still believe that Barack Hussein Obama was born in Kenya and was sent to America to usher in the Caliphate.

Madison Avenue has made America feel like a nation divided. Who knows, maybe partisan divide has always been this toxic. But it sure feels like Americans have grown farther apart than ever. I saw countless headlines this election season predicting a Civil War or referring to America as a “nation on the brink.” I don’t remember those same headlines in 2008 or 2012. If America was a married couple, we would have gotten divorced a long time ago, but our country is simply too intertwined to be disentangled amicably.

Americans are stuck with each other, but here’s why you should be filled with hope, especially if you’re on the Left: Donald Trump  promised he would be the Great Unifier. LAUGH if you must, but recall that you probably also had that same reaction the first time Donald Trump told you he would be President of the United States. I laughed then, you probably did too, but we’re not laughing anymore. Hell, half the country is curled up in the fetal position weeping.

President-elect Trump may have already won the election, but he still needs your vote, and here are just a couple of reasons why. First, if Trump’s approval ratings do not improve and Kanye West smells blood, he will run in 2020 (stress-related hospitalization notwithstanding), and he will be a formidable opponent. You may not take Kanye seriously, but I guarantee you Trump takes him VERY seriously. Believe me! Second, President-elect Trump understands that human beings are happier when they feel more patriotic and less divided. Even if he cannot deliver on his policies, he knows that by simply making everyone feel like they are on the same team, he will earn a higher approval rating.

Trump’s campaign has three phases: first he secured the Republican nomination, second he won the electoral vote and now, third, he’s going to try to win over as much of the Left as he can. And, the next four years of his campaign are going turn out really well for the Left because, policy-wise, Trump is a Democrat’s best friend. He doesn’t believe in ANY of the things you hate about the GOP: taxes, gay marriage, wars and abortion. Don’t take it from me, listen to conservatives like Ben Shapiro who are lamenting that Trump is going to destroy conservative values. Or, if that doesn’t work, try to imagine (without LAUGHING) Ted Cruz on stage at a rally uncomfortably holding a rainbow flag.

For the next four years, President Trump will try to win over the Left while holding on to the Right. At times, he will appear to speak out both sides of his mouth. He will back off many of the hard-line positions on which he campaigned while satisfying the deplorables his core constituency by fulfilling his promises to them, but in ceremony only. So, yes, he will officially repeal and replace Obamacare, but the replacement will probably look a LOT like Obamacare. President Obama himself has said that his legislation has some bugs. Great, so the Trump administration will try to fix the bugs, but they will brand it as “repealing and replacing.” And yes, he will do things like appoint a conservative judge to replace Justice Scalia on the Supreme Court. But don’t be surprised if Ruth Bader Ginsburg (or another liberal justice) steps down, and he appoints a liberal in her place. 

Could the double talk backfire? Well, sure, if you or I tried it. But remember, this is President Trump we’re talking about — he’s a genius. As it stands now, the far right will do whatever Trump tells them to do, including adopt policy positions that run counter to their principles, because he’s their guy. Democrats will be hesitant at first because he’s NOT their guy, but over time President Trump will try to convince them that he IS their guy. If you’re on the Left, President Trump is going to campaign hard for your vote for the next four years. Sit back and enjoy the ride.


Zach Abramowitz is a former Biglaw associate and currently CEO and co-founder of ReplyAll. You can follow Zach on Twitter (@zachabramowitz) or reach him by email at zach@replyall.me.