Is Judge Neil Gorsuch The Supreme Court Nominee?

Judge Gorsuch has been on the SCOTUS radar for almost a decade.

Judge Neil M. Gorsuch, addressing the Federalist Society.

Judge Neil M. Gorsuch, addressing the Federalist Society.

UPDATE (1/31/2017, 4:49 p.m.): Please note the multiple UPDATES to this post, especially the most recent ones.

President Donald Trump plans to announce his Supreme Court nominee tomorrow night. Who will it be? Word on the street is that it’s down to three or four finalists: Judge Neil Gorsuch of the Tenth Circuit, Judge Thomas Hardiman of the Third Circuit, Judge William Pryor of the Eleventh Circuit, and possibly Judge Raymond Kethledge of the Sixth Circuit.

Some of these judges would be easier to confirm than others. But we might see a filibuster from the Democrats no matter who the nominee is.

Who has the edge among the finalists? If I had to bet, I’d put my money on Judge Neil Gorsuch. In addition to the reasons offered by Adam Feldman at Empirical SCOTUS, which I all agree with, I’d add these thoughts.

First, Judge Gorsuch is a “winner” — brilliant, pedigreed, tall, handsome — and Trump likes winners. The president sounds populist themes — which here might point in the direction of Judge Hardiman, the first in his family to go to college, paying his way through school by driving a cab — but when it comes time to make an actual appointment, Trump goes with privilege in the end. And Judge Gorsuch, the Ivy League- and Oxford-educated son of a former top government official — Anne Gorsuch, the first woman to lead the EPA — oozes privilege.

A second reason to predict Gorsuch: rumor has it that that the Denver-based judge is currently in, or on his way to, Washington, D.C.

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(Now, that’s just a rumor, and rumors on the brink of a nomination can be notoriously inaccurate. Last year, minutes before President Barack Obama announced Chief Judge Merrick Garland as his pick, the rumor mill said the nominee was going to be Judge Paul Watford. And back in 2005, the world thought for a few hours that Judge Edith Brown Clement of the Fifth Circuit was going to be nominated to the Supreme Court. So take SCOTUS rumors with the proverbial grain of salt.)

A third reason to predict Gorsuch: it makes me appear more prescient. Almost ten years ago, in 2006, I wrote:

Article III groupies, Judge Neil Gorsuch is one to watch. He’s brilliant, he’s young, and he’s incredibly well-connected. Look for him to rise through the ranks of Supreme Court feeder judges in the years to come — and, perhaps, to be nominated to the Court himself someday.

You can read my full report on Judge Gorsuch’s investiture here.

If you’re in a position to confirm or deny any rumor about the whereabouts of Judge Gorsuch (or any other SCOTUS nominee), please drop us a line, by email (subject line: “SCOTUS”) or by text (646-820-8477). The locations of federal appellate judges can be hard to conceal if they have oral arguments scheduled. (Earlier this month, we had a bit of a fire drill upon hearing that oral arguments in a high-profile voter ID case before Judge Diane Sykes were canceled on short notice, making some think Judge Sykes was in D.C. — but it turned out that other arguments did proceed before her as planned that day, in Chicago.)

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Good luck to Judge Gorsuch and to all of the Supreme Court contenders!

UPDATE (3:20 p.m.): A tipster tells us that Judge Gorsuch is still scheduled to be teaching his antitrust class at Colorado Law tomorrow. If we hear of this class being canceled, we will update this post immediately. (Of course, if Judge Gorsuch ends up being the nominee, it’s quite possible that students won’t be told of his absence until the time of class, or that he’ll arrange for a substitute or guest lecturer.)

UPDATE (3:41 p.m.): Sophie Tatum and Jeff Zeleny of CNN, citing two people close to the process, identify Judge Hardiman as the frontrunner.

UPDATE (11:41 p.m.): Judge Gorsuch and Judge Hardiman are duking it out in the prediction markets. As of 6 p.m., Hardiman led Gorsuch, but as of now, Gorsuch leads Hardiman.

UPDATE (1/31/20/17, 11:05 a.m.): Here’s the latest SCOTUS scuttlebutt, this time pointing in the direction of Judge Hardiman.

UPDATE (1/31/2017, 4:49 p.m.): Judge Gorsuch is leading Judge Hardiman by a wide margin in the prediction markets, and at least one publication claims that Judge Gorsuch will be the nominee. So does Ramesh Ponnuru of the National Review.

UPDATE (1/31/2017, 8:00 p.m.): Congratulations to Judge Gorsuch, President Trump’s first Supreme Court nominee!

Earlier: The Eyes of the Law: Judge Neil Gorsuch’s Investiture
Supreme Court Update: And Then There Were Three Four
Supreme Court Update: Trump Has Started Interviewing SCOTUS Candidates
Handicapping Donald Trump’s Supreme Court Shortlist
Why Donald Trump Must Nominate Ted Cruz To The Supreme Court
Report: Donald Trump Would Put Peter Thiel On The Supreme Court… Wait, What?
Making SCOTUS Great Again: Trump’s Supreme Court Shortlist


DBL square headshotDavid Lat is the founder and managing editor of Above the Law and the author of Supreme Ambitions: A Novel. He previously worked as a federal prosecutor in Newark, New Jersey; a litigation associate at Wachtell, Lipton, Rosen & Katz; and a law clerk to Judge Diarmuid F. O’Scannlain of the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Ninth Circuit. You can connect with David on Twitter (@DavidLat), LinkedIn, and Facebook, and you can reach him by email at dlat@abovethelaw.com.