Department of Justice, Donald Trump

How Long Until Paul Manafort Rolls?

Let's put the Over/Under at March 15, 2018 and get a pool going.

By  
on

Paul Manafort is toast. We know that, right? It was revealed today that the FBI got two FISA warrants to wiretap Paul Manafort, one before the election and one after the election. They picked a lock to search his home. Special counsel Robert Mueller has reportedly told Manafort to expect an indictment.

Come on guys, we’re done here. Let the layperson media “debate” about what this all means for Paul Manafort. Let the Trumpsters complain that the existence of the FISA warrants (TWO of them, y’all), has something to do with Trump’s ridiculous claim that the “Obama” had his “wires tapped” at “Trump Tower.”

But if you’re Manafort personal attorney Kevin Downing, what are you telling your client? “Don’t worry, everything’s going to be okay”? I mean, sure, you’re trying to keep your client’s spirits up, but in your mind you have already started to noodle out the basis for a “deal.” You’re thinking about keeping your client out of prison, or minimizing what prison time you can see coming. You’re thinking about what your client has to “trade.” You’re thinking: “You know, I know that my client isn’t the biggest fish in this pond.”

How long until Manafort’s attorneys tell him to flip? Have they done it already? Are they waiting for an actual indictment? The only legal drama left is not what happens to Paul Manafort, but whether he takes the “weight” of it by himself, or if he is willing to implicate others.

At some point, Mueller and his team will face a question similar to the one faced by the prosecutors in Bridgegate. They’re going to have enough to bust some low-level team members for helping Russia influence an American election. Maybe not even “low-level” — if I’m Donald Trump Jr. or Jared Kushner, I’m not feeling great about these reports of Manafort wiretaps, right?

But, just like in Bridgegate, at some point you’re not going to be able to go after the big fish without the cooperation of all the little guys that you have dead-to-rights. Do you let everybody else off easy to go after the orange elephant in the room?

Be careful how you answer: you come at the king, you best not miss.

Sponsored

We can’t know what the prosecutors should do without knowing all of their evidence. But the mere smoke already around Paul Manafort suggests an easy, armchair-defense-attorney strategy. Paul Manafort needs to be looking for a deal. I say he gets one, before the Ides of March next year.

Anybody want that action?

With a Picked Lock and a Threatened Indictment, Mueller’s Inquiry Sets a Tone [New York Times]
Ex-Trump campaign chairman Manafort reportedly wiretapped as result of FISA court orders [ABA Journal]

Elie Mystal is an editor of Above the Law and the Legal Editor for More Perfect. He can be reached @ElieNYC on Twitter, or at elie@abovethelaw.com. He will resist.

Sponsored

Topics

, , , , , ,