It’s possible that after Monday’s hearings, Susan Collins and Jeff Flake and Lisa Murkowski will all stick to the fold and install Brett Kavanaugh on the Supreme Court. On the other hand, with a guy who was the least popular Supreme Court nominee in recorded history before allegations of sexual assault, it’s entirely possible that one or more of them will defect and force this process into the lame duck session or beyond.
It’s time for the GOP to cut their losses if they really want this seat filled. I’m just not sure they can.
This is the fork in the road that conservatism has finally reached. While the Republicans will likely retain control of the Senate rendering this all moot, they haven’t gotten where they are by leaving critical moments up to chance. They want this nominee confirmed by the end of October so they can guarantee they won’t get Garland-ed by a possible Democratic majority. On the other hand, the modern Republican brand is built on a juvenile fascination with “owning the libs.” It’s that deep-seated commitment to buying Nikes and burning them to protest Colin Kaepernick by giving him more money… somehow. It’s become core to the right-wing lifestyle. And nothing would own the libs more than rubber-stamping a guy accused of sexual assault. At this juncture, they almost have to double down on Kavanaugh — come hell or high water — just to stay on message.
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This is why so many apologists have already moved past “I don’t believe the allegations” to “even if this is true… should attempted rape even matter?” The inertia of the Trump moment is daring the Republicans to stick with Kavanaugh. The rank-and-file won’t even be satisfied to dispel the accusations, they want the story to be true so they can vote to confirm him anyway.
If I were to dispense free advice to the White House, I’d tell them to dump Kavanaugh immediately and put up Amy Coney Barrett or Amul Thapar. This allows Mitch McConnell to credibly — if sleazily — demand a vote in two weeks on the grounds that this very Senate has already held hearings on the nominee and declare that there’s no need for further vetting. That accomplishes the decades-long conservative project of returning the Supreme Court to the Taney era without having to worry about wayward RINOs torpedoing the Federalist Society’s darling. But will they do it?
Can they do it?
The next few days will tell us a lot about who calls the shots in this party.
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Joe Patrice is a senior editor at Above the Law and co-host of Thinking Like A Lawyer. Feel free to email any tips, questions, or comments. Follow him on Twitter if you’re interested in law, politics, and a healthy dose of college sports news.