Impeachophilia: The Democrats’ Futile And Self-Destructive Attraction To Impeachment

If you’ve consumed any mainstream political media or even listened to the Above the Law podcast recently, you’ve heard these agitated calls for Democrats in the House to “do something” and bring articles of impeachment against Donald Trump on the strength of Robert Mueller’s conclusions regarding Trump’s efforts to obstruct justice. Mueller’s painstakingly detailed report functionally put the decision to take action against the sitting president in the hands of Congress and, in the ideal world that the Framers envisioned, Congress would be taking action on the basis of this report to remove Trump from office at this moment.

But this isn’t an ideal world.

Let’s cut through all the emotion and vitriol and take a dispassionate view of the impeachment option and the intendant risks of trumpeting this extraordinary legal procedure.

The simple criteria to evaluate this process is whether or not, on balance, impeachment makes it more or less likely that Donald Trump remains president of the United States in either the short or long term. High-minded talk about constitutional obligations and moral duties is all well and good, but as the ultimate aim of impeachment is a conviction ending in removal, the most important lens for evaluating this mechanism is “does this take him out of office” full stop.

So, does impeachment make it more likely that Trump is removed from office in the short-term? No. Counting to 67 — the number of Senators required to secure a conviction in the Senate — is a relatively simple task and the Democrats fall well short.

One argument in defense of impeachment raised in our recent podcast is that there could be some vague value to “forcing Republicans to go on the record” that makes an impeachment trial valuable for reasons beyond securing a conviction. This is dubious at best and more likely cuts the other way. The argument seems to be that voting to support Trump in light of the evidence could compromise some GOP senators. Yet no trial is needed to see where most of these very senators stand — they’re gleefully sharing their conclusions on television every day — and the Senate map reveals that most of the GOP’s senators would only help themselves in the long run by sticking with Trump.

On the other hand, consider vulnerable GOP senators in “purple” states. The high bar of reaching 67 votes provides these senators all the electoral shelter they could want. Someone like Susan Collins gets to vote to convict to protect her moderate brand and walk back to an increasingly Democratic-leaning electorate and say, “yes I supported Kavanaugh and any number of unpopular Republican programs, but I tried to remove Trump from office so let’s let bygones be bygones.” Republicans can, with a wink and a nod, release multiple “purple” senators to do the same and bolster potentially shaky reelection bids.

Moving on, does impeachment make it more likely that Trump is removed from office in the long-term? Less clear, but unlikely. While a good number of Americans long ago made up their minds about this whole affair, if there are any potential swing voters left, the Trump camp believes their only interest is in finality. It’s a sentiment that liberal media helped fuel in lionizing Mueller’s investigation and setting up the eventual report as a definitive conclusion that everyone could rely upon. This, in turn, is what motivated Barr’s comical four-page summary to read more into the report than was actually there.

Would an acquittal after a five-week trial (to use the only other recent impeachment proceeding as a guide) damage Trump’s electability any more than it already has? Probably not. But would giving Trump the claim to “finality” of an acquittal bolster his chances even slightly? Almost assuredly. James Comey’s “clearing” Hillary Clinton in the summer of 2016 basically silenced the email scandal for months — and if Anthony Weiner could keep it in his pants, would have kept it politically irrelevant for the whole rest of the election. The Mueller report frustrates the administration because, on the obstruction parts anyway, it leaves lingering questions and keeps them from moving on. Say what you will about the dog and pony shows that were Fast & Furious and Benghazi, but the open-ended, harassing investigations did much more to sow doubt and stir up grassroots support for Republicans than a conclusory trial would have.

That unending harassment is more effective than a constitutional trial mechanism is certainly bad for the Republic, but it’s the reality.

A Senate trial may be rigged affair, but it would hand him the rhetorical flourish he desperately wants — “it’s over… they tried me and found nothing.” Trump would get to repeat this mantra twenty times a day for a year and a half. He gets to point and say “scoreboard” whenever anyone challenges him. For a candidate whose electoral success is entirely tied to exuding the appearance — deserved or not — of “winning” this is a tremendous risk for his opponents to invite.

To sum up, impeachment makes it no more likely that Trump is forced from office either sooner or later and only increases the risks that he prevails in the long-term by handing him a valuable campaign mantra and shoring up threatened Republican Senate seats.

But even if the reality of impeachment is a losing proposition for Democrats, could the idea of it be a winner? Many a fundraising appeal and grassroots organizing campaign will be based on the need to impeach Trump. On the other hand, setting up voters for something that they can’t deliver is a strategy fraught with risk. Could failing to follow through on the rhetoric alienate supporters and suppress turnout? It’s definitely a risk and one that grows more acute the more breathlessly it’s hyped.

So far, the Democratic presidential candidates have largely downplayed impeachment as, at most, something they support but that is ultimately tangential to their policy proposals. This seems smart… unfortunately the media doesn’t want to hear Liz Warren solve student debt when they can ask her about the big shiny object of impeachment. Every day impeachment is a top story is a day a candidate’s actual campaign pitch isn’t.

Despite all the hopes and dreams of rank-and-file Democrats over the last couple years, the only path for them is electoral victory. Yet impeachophilia keeps rearing its head everywhere you look. It’s almost, not unlike the Hulk in last year’s Infinity War, Democratic boosters are scared to come out and go head to head with Trump, having been burned before. There has to be an easier way out they surmise.

There isn’t. Raise money, organize, campaign, win — at all levels. There is no magic shortcut to replacing Trump in the White House. The sooner everyone’s honest with themselves about this, the sooner they can get down to that work in earnest.

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Joe Patrice is a senior editor at Above the Law and co-host of Thinking Like A Lawyer. Feel free to email any tips, questions, or comments. Follow him on Twitter if you’re interested in law, politics, and a healthy dose of college sports news. Joe also serves as a Managing Director at RPN Executive Search.