Biglaw

Two Visions Of Trump's Future

Only the coming of 2023 will defog my crystal ball.

By  
on

(Photo by Win McNamee/Getty Images)

As Yogi Berra once said:  “It’s tough to make predictions, especially about the future.”

Donald Trump’s future is particularly opaque to me.

Here’s the first version of the future that I can imagine:

All of the prosecutors investigating Trump decide that he didn’t do anything wrong, or they doubt they can convict him. The prosecutors don’t indict. Or, perhaps, a prosecutor (or maybe two) charges Trump, but it proves terribly difficult to pick a jury. A secret Trump supporter ends up on the jury, refuses to convict, and the jury hangs. Trump stays out of jail.

Trump’s financial problems are overblown. Sure, many of his outside advisors have quit on him, but there are always more advisors where they came from.  Sure, Trump owes, and has personally guaranteed, a couple hundred million in debt that comes due over the next few years. But Trump’s brought in hundreds of millions in political contributions recently, and he’s become a very famous person. Overseas banks are delighted to do business with him; many folks will still pay for the privilege of having the Trump name on their properties; Trump’s good at surviving financial peril. Trump stays rich.

Trump’s civil liabilities are overstated. Any civil case can be settled by paying money. Trump settles the pending defamation cases; and the case brought by his niece, Mary; and whatever cases arise out of the storming of the Capitol on January 6. It’s just money; a few tens of millions and Trump’s civil woes are behind him.

Sponsored

The Republican Party rallies behind its obvious leader. Trump successfully supports primary challenges to most of the members of Congress who supported impeachment.

Four years from now, it’s 2016 all over again.

But here’s the second version of the future that I can imagine. I think it’s slightly more likely to occur than the first, but I’m terribly uncertain:

Several of the prosecutors pursuing Trump choose to indict him. It’s relatively easy for prosecutors to pick juries in New York City, Atlanta, or Washington, D.C. Those are heavily Democratic cities; any “12 good men and true” (sorry for the sexism, but the quote’s from the 17th century) would be happy to convict on the appropriate evidence. The prosecutors conduct the trials of the century. We all enjoy the spectacle on television. Trump spends the rest of his life behind bars.

Trump’s financial problems are, of course, insurmountable. Trump’s largely in the entertainment and hospitality businesses; those businesses were crushed by the pandemic. All of his outside advisors quit on him. Massive debts are coming due. Nobody’s willing to gamble on the chance that Trump will survive by financing him. Trump stumbles into ruin.

Sponsored

Civil cases pose enormous risk to Trump. Trump has to testify under oath in multiple proceedings. He has to pay defense costs. Folks injured in the storming of the Capitol choose to name Trump personally in many lawsuits.  Plaintiffs, encouraged by counsel who want to make names for themselves, choose to roll the dice rather than settle. Trump is hit for massive verdicts.

Trump is bankrupt and imprisoned, and the Republican Party shuns its disgraced former leader.

Others try to replicate Trump’s style, but they’re all a mere shadow of the original. The Republican Party doesn’t go back to what it had been historically, but is driven by new policies meant to protect the working class more than the rich: high tariffs, low immigration, few foreign entanglements, and perhaps a more generous view toward universal health care or a higher minimum wage.

The party survives. Trump does not.

Frankly, I can imagine a future that looks like either of those visions. I can imagine other alternative futures, too. Only the coming of 2023 will defog my crystal ball.

Mark Herrmann spent 17 years as a partner at a leading international law firm and is now deputy general counsel at a large international company. He is the author of The Curmudgeon’s Guide to Practicing Law and Drug and Device Product Liability Litigation Strategy (affiliate links). You can reach him by email at inhouse@abovethelaw.com.

Topics

, , ,