The past couple of weeks have seen endless pundits predicting gloom and doom for the Democrats next year: Biden’s approval rating is down. The party of the incumbent president always loses ground in midterm elections. Republicans control most state legislatures, so the decennial gerrymandering of Congressional districts will play out in Republicans’ favor. Inflation is up, and that’s a pocketbook issue that will matter to voters. Finally, look at the results in the Virginia and New Jersey gubernatorial races.
Woe is Democrats!
Someone should offer a (slightly) contrary view.
I’ve got some good news for you: I’m just the guy to do it.
Three things are actually likely to be working in the Democrats’ favor by the time of next year’s midterm elections.
First, the pandemic is likely to be essentially under control in the United States by November 2022. One of the keys to controlling the pandemic is convincing (or coercing) the vaccine-hesitant to get the COVID-19 vaccine. Until the FDA approved — “approved,” not “approved through an emergency use authorization” — the COVID-19 vaccines, the government was hesitant to compel vaccinations. Once the FDA approved the vaccines, the government moved fairly rapidly to require government contractors and large employers to have their employees vaccinated. Although there are legal objections to those vaccination programs, they’re likely to have an impact. And those programs give other private employers the cover they need to require their employees to get vaccinated.
Add to that the availability of vaccines for children over 5 — and likely under 5 by next spring — and COVID-19 may be essentially under control in the United States by November 2022.
Why Some Firms Are Leading The Market With Generative AI
A culture of innovation with strategic AI like Lexis+ AI is revolutionizing law firms by boosting efficiency and deepening client relationships.
Nothing is certain, of course. I’ve restricted my prediction to COVID-19 “in the United States”; the virus will probably still be running rampant overseas. And there’s always the chance that a new, vaccine-resistant variant will emerge, putting public health, and the Democrats, back to square one. But, barring that public health disaster, the United States could almost be back to normal next year, and Democrats will benefit from that.
I suspect that Biden’s approval rating will move inversely to infection rates. By November 2022, infection rates will decrease, and Biden’s approval rating will improve, along with the Democrats’ chances.
Second, the economy is looking pretty good right now, and that’s likely to continue for another 12 months. We’re emerging from the virus; that’s likely to continue. Businesses that benefit from the re-opening trade will reap the rewards. Unemployment is currently low and likely to move lower. Wages are increasing.
For the most part, the economy is doing well, and it’s likely to continue doing well for another year. Democrats will benefit.
Finally, everyone seems to be ignoring the possibility that Trump will be indicted between now and November 2022. New grand juries have been convened in New York and Georgia to investigate possible financial and electoral misconduct, respectively. Isn’t the smart money betting that at least one of those two investigations will lead to an indictment?
If an indictment is handed down, any case against Trump is likely to be pending trial in November 2022. This puts Republicans in an awful bind: Trump will continue to insist that candidates pledge loyalty to him, insisting that any indictment is a Democrat-inspired witch hunt. Candidates will want to distance themselves from Trump, but Trump won’t permit it. What’s a candidate to do?
That’s a tricky situation for all Republican candidates, and it can’t help a political party to have its leading figure at risk of going to prison.
My crystal ball is of course cloudy. None of these events may come to pass. Even if they do, the many advantages that Republicans have in the midterm elections may outweigh the advantages accruing to the Democrats. But fate is funny, and I suspect that Democrats are not in as much trouble as the conventional wisdom suggests.
(Allow me to end on a point of personal privilege: Happy birthday to me! Today marks the eleventh anniversary of this column at Above the Law. Eleven years! Heaven help me, but thanks for reading.)
Mark Herrmann spent 17 years as a partner at a leading international law firm and is now deputy general counsel at a large international company. He is the author of The Curmudgeon’s Guide to Practicing Law and Drug and Device Product Liability Litigation Strategy (affiliate links). You can reach him by email at [email protected].