(Photo by Evan Vucci-Pool/Getty Images)
Vladimir Putin has threatened to use tactical nuclear weapons, if appropriate, in his war in Ukraine.
Commentators fret that this means World War III.
Why Better Billing Statements Can Improve Your Firm’s Finances—And Your Client Relationships
Outdated billing is costing law firms money. Discover how clear, modern billing practices boost profits, trust, and cash flow in 2025.
More intelligent commentators say that use of a tactical nuke does not guarantee World War III. Nuclear weapons, these commentators say, are essentially useless on the battlefield. They ruin roads, knock over all the trees, and make it impossible for a military to maneuver. Thus, if Putin used a nuke, it would be purely for display — dropping a bomb, for example, on Volodymyr Zelensky’s hometown or somewhere over the Black Sea.
This would not necessarily immediately prompt a nuclear response from the West. The West might, for example, use conventional weapons to destroy every significant Russian military outpost in Ukraine and every Russian ship in the Black Sea. Alternatively, the West could use cyberwarfare to put Moscow into the cold and dark for a couple of months or use financial warfare to cut Russia entirely out of the global economy. None of these thoughts is pretty, but none of them is World War III.
On the other hand, what will happen politically in the United States in the next nine months?
The Republicans will win one or both Houses of Congress.
Around the end of the year, either the Department of Justice or the Fulton County, Georgia, district attorney will indict Donald Trump.
This will probably prompt Trump to announce that he’s running for president, to make the indictments seem more political, to give Trump a louder platform from which to speak, and to give Trump the possibility of the presidency in 2024 to assist him with his defense.
Trump will of course urge everyone on his side to “fight like hell” to protect against unfair prosecutions and the end of democracy. Many of Trump’s supporters will take those words literally.
At the same time, Republicans in the House will debate whether to impeach — for something! Anything! — President Joe Biden or Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas, or anyone else Republicans can put in the line of fire. After the debate, the Republicans may in fact actually impeach someone.
The Senate will acquit. But still.
I’m not worried about Ukraine prompting a literal World War III.
I’m worried about American politics prompting a figurative — but quite scary — World War III, between now and next summer.
Mark Herrmann spent 17 years as a partner at a leading international law firm and is now deputy general counsel at a large international company. He is the author of The Curmudgeon’s Guide to Practicing Law and Drug and Device Product Liability Litigation Strategy (affiliate links). You can reach him by email at [email protected].