It’s funny to hear folks pontificate about the 2024 presidential election.I’ll start with what’s become the conventional wisdom on both sides of the debate. I’ll then add my few thoughts to the mix. (I leave my most provocative thought until last. See? Like the local news, I hope my teaser encourages you to read through to the end.)
What’s the conventional wisdom?
On the one hand are the folks who say that Trump can’t possibly win in a general election against Joe Biden. These folks say: Every last person who might vote for Trump is already committed. Everyone knows all about Trump, and their views are set in stone. But while Trump can’t gain any votes in the coming year, he surely can lose some. Publicity related to his criminal trials will nibble away at his popularity. A conviction or two will influence at least a few people. If Trump is basically tied with Biden in the current polls, he can’t possibly win in the general election. He can only lose votes between now and then, so Biden’s victory is assured.
That sounds pretty convincing, doesn’t it?
On the other hand, some pundits say that Trump can’t possibly lose in a general election against Biden. These folks say: Trump and Biden are basically tied in the current polls. And Biden surely stands to lose more votes in the coming year than Trump does. Trump voters are committed; they’re not going anywhere, no matter the news. But Biden voters are less committed; they’ll disappear for damn near anything. Suppose Biden has a health scare in the next year; some voters are gone. Suppose the economy sinks into recession next year; Biden’s toast. Suppose that Cornel West continues his run with the People’s Party, or wins the nomination for the Green Party. That will siphon enough votes from the left to doom Biden in swing states. Suppose the No Labels Party runs a candidate who’s simply sane, in the sense that, if the No Labels candidate won the election, we wouldn’t wake up each morning wondering whether the president had called a porn star “horseface” on Twitter. A credible No Labels candidate, from either side of the political spectrum, will pull votes from people looking for a sane alternative to Trump, which will cost Biden the election. Trump can’t possibly lose.
That sounds pretty convincing, doesn’t it?
Both sides overlook several things.
First, Trump, too, is awfully old. If he has a health scare, that will influence some voters.
Second, I stand by my prediction that there will be violence between now and the general election. I’m not sure if this will be mass violence, along the lines of January 6, or lone wolf violence in scattered places, but blood will be spilled between now and next November. I’m not sure how the public will react to that bloodshed, but I bet it influences the election.
Third, next year’s trials will shape the view of the electorate. Trump has already lost the upcoming E. Jean Carroll defamation trial. Judge Kaplan recently held that the jury verdict in the first trial established Trump’s liability in the second. (I reached that conclusion months before Kaplan did.) All that’s left for the trial in January is for the jury to consider damages. That’s bad news for Trump; the press coverage will be shouting that Trump owes Carroll yet more money for having sexually assaulted and defamed her. And Trump probably won’t criticize the verdict in the second trial too loudly, for fear that he’ll be sued yet a third time for defamation.
Even before that, there’s the case brought by the New York attorney general, in which the judge has already condemned Trump’s business practices. There will surely be more bad news for Trump in that case. Shortly after the next E. Jean Carroll verdict, Trump will face the steady drip of evidence, followed by a likely conviction or two, in criminal cases.
Lastly, everyone overlooks events that are solely in the control of the president. For example, suppose Biden tells Zelensky in September 2024 to make an unconditional offer of peace with Russia, with Russia keeping Crimea. Zelensky, of course, doesn’t want to make this offer. Biden explains: “If you make this offer, I’ll win the U.S. election. If you do not make this offer, Trump will win the election. If Trump wins, Ukraine is toast, because Trump will immediately cut off all military aid to Ukraine. Make the offer.”
Zelensky makes the offer. Putin either accepts the offer, in which case the war is over and Biden is a hero, or rejects the offer, which would reflect terribly on both Putin and Trump (who seems to be a Putin supporter).
I’ve obviously just cooked up the possible scenario that I just described. But there’s a truth hidden beneath my fiction: Don’t underestimate the power of incumbency. Biden controls the timing of an awful lot of events. He doesn’t have to be too canny to use them to his advantage.
There’s plenty of time between now and next November. Let’s not yet pick winners.
Mark Herrmann spent 17 years as a partner at a leading international law firm and is now deputy general counsel at a large international company. He is the author of The Curmudgeon’s Guide to Practicing Law and Drug and Device Product Liability Litigation Strategy (affiliate links). You can reach him by email at [email protected].