Think about the wars that Israel has had with its neighbors.
The first war was in 1948, when Israel came to exist. Virtually the entire Arab world took up arms. But Israel won its War for Independence, or “nakbah,” the disaster, depending on whose point of view you take, in a little over a year. President Truman supported Israel diplomatically. The war ended with the signing of the 1949 Armistice Agreement.
Peace! It was sure to last forever.
Or perhaps peace would last until 1956, when Egypt nationalized the Suez Canal, and Israel invaded the Sinai. Israel captured the Sinai and continued to hold it after the ceasefire. Ultimately, under pressure from President Dwight Eisenhower, Israel withdrew from Egypt. Good idea, Ike!
That’ll guarantee peace — which was sure to last forever.
Or at least until 1967, when Egypt blockaded the Straits of Tiran. How long do you suppose it took Israel to win the Six-Day War? After the war ended, President Lyndon Johnson began strengthening the political and military ties between the United States and Israel. Good idea, LBJ!
Peace! It was sure to last forever.
Or at least until Yom Kippur in 1973, when the Arab states launched a surprise attack to try to take back the territory that Israel had won during the Six-Day War. Israel repelled the attack. President RichardNixon ordered an emergency airlift of military aid to Israel, and Henry Kissinger engaged in “shuttle diplomacy” to lay the groundwork for future peace.
Ah … great peacemakers like Nixon and Kissinger. I’m sure the peace would last forever.
To guarantee that the peace actually lasted, President Jimmy Carter initiated 12 days of secret negotiations at Camp David, which resulted in the Camp David Accords of 1978. Egyptian President Anwar Sadat and Israeli Prime Minister Menachem Begin ultimately signed an Egypt-Israel peace treaty, for which they both received the Nobel Peace Prize.
The Nobel Peace Prize! As I recall, Carter whined publicly that the Nobel Committee had given the prize to Sadat and Begin, when it was actually Carter who deserved it.
Thin-skinned Democrats!
The peace between Egypt and Israel has in fact been enduring, but peace among the rest of the crowd in the Middle East has been harder to come by. In 1982, the Palestine Liberation Organization attacked northern Israel from Lebanon. Israel expelled the PLO from Beirut. President Ronald Reagan sent U.S. troops as part of a peacekeeping force. The Marines stayed put until the bombing of the Beirut barracks in 1983, when the U.S. withdrew.
Oh, well. No lasting peace there.
The Palestinian uprising that was the First Intifada lasted for six years, from 1987 to 1993. That led to international efforts for peace. President George H.W. Bush facilitated the Madrid Conference, which were the first direct talks between Israel and the Arab states.
Good idea! Lasting peace!
Until the Second Intifada, which started in 2000. President Bill Clinton hosted the Camp David Summit, and President George W. Bush introduced the Road Map for Peace, which was supported by the European Union, Russia, and the United Nations.
That’s a lot of international support. Finally, lasting peace!
Until the Gaza Wars of — take a breath — 2008, 2012, 2014, 2021, and 2023 to 2024. President Barack Obama called for ceasefires; President Donald Trump recognized Jerusalem as Israel’s capital and helped to negotiate the Abraham Accords between Israel and certain Arab states; President Joe Biden advocated ceasefires.
That’s a lot of presidential brainpower: A winner of the Nobel Peace Prize, a very stable genius, and an autopen. Surely it led to lasting peace!
Oops!
On October 7, 2023, Hamas launched the most recent massive attack on Israel. President Biden worked with Egypt and Qatar to secure the release of hostages and a potential ceasefire. His efforts worked in the short term, but nothing permanent came of it.
Until now!
President Trump has announced his 20-point plan for lasting peace in the Middle East.
Unlike all those earlier failed peace efforts, Trump did what was necessary this time around: He summoned leaders from all around the world to come to Israel and tell Trump how great he is! Why didn’t any of those other American presidents recognize that this was the only way to secure lasting peace in the Middle East?
Now that all those other leaders have sucked up to Trump, lasting peace is guaranteed!
Look.
I acknowledge what Trump has achieved: The release of the last of the living hostages; a promise to release the remains of the dead; a ceasefire in the region and a withdrawal of some Israeli troops. That’s not a bad start. Good for Trump.
And there’s been peace for damn near a week now.
But I’ll bet the mortgage that this is not a lasting peace in the Middle East. Hamas has not disarmed or said that it will. There’s no real plan for the future of Palestine. And Trump seems more interested in receiving a prize than doing the work needed to build lasting peace.
This is the one time when I’m delighted that Trump will still be president for the next 3 1/2 years. That way, when the peace blows up, Trump will still be at the helm. Trump won’t be able to blame the new war on JD Vance, or Gavin Newsom, or whoever Trump’s successor will be.
No, no, no.
Trump will realize that his plan was no better than plans that had been proposed in the past, and Trump will take the blame for the failure.
Just kidding.
The failure of this peace plan — which will occur on Trump’s watch — will be the fault of Hamas, or Benjamin Netanyahu, or some splinter group within the Gaza Strip, or the Palestinian Authority, or that fool Tony Blair, or maybe you or me.
But don’t blame Donald Trump.
He, unlike every previous American president, has secured lasting peace in the Middle East.
This one is forever.
Give the man a Nobel Peace Prize and set down your arms.
At last.
Mark Herrmann spent 17 years as a partner at a leading international law firm and later oversaw litigation, compliance and employment matters at a large international company. He is the author of The Curmudgeon’s Guide to Practicing Law and Drug and Device Product Liability Litigation Strategy (affiliate links). You can reach him by email at [email protected].