This is the time of year to make predictions.
Who am I to buck a trend? I have one very specific (and extended) prediction.
How Filevine’s New DraftAI Cuts Out Hours Of Writing Work
Now it transforms your document creation with natural language prompts.
My prediction begins with the Supreme Court seeing an opportunity in the pending litigation involving President Donald Trump’s tariffs.
Trump’s “liberation day” tariffs are probably unlawful. If the Supreme Court were to strike down the tariffs, that decision would have the benefit of following the law. That’s good, for starters.
But a decision striking down the tariffs would do much more than follow the law. Invalidating the tariffs would also allow the Supreme Court to show that it’s independent, occasionally willing to defy Trump. That would help the court. Invalidating the tariffs also doesn’t hurt Trump too much because Trump has fallback mechanisms for reimposing similar tariffs under other laws if he’s dead-set on maintaining tariffs. Also, because Trump can reimpose tariffs, he’s unlikely to ignore the court’s order, creating a constitutional crisis. Instead, he’ll use a different route to reimpose the tariffs. Finally, striking down the tariffs would probably benefit Trump politically: The tariffs have increased certain prices in the United States and decreased employment (by creating uncertainty, which reduces business investment). By striking down the tariffs, the Supreme Court would probably be helping the economy.
That’s not really the way the Supreme Court thinks. The court actually does more law and less politics than I do, but you see what I’m driving at. The Supreme Court will strike down Trump’s tariffs, which might well improve the economy and strengthen the Republicans’ hand in the midterm elections in November.
4 Ways Your Firm Can Build Economic Resilience
It’s the key to long-term success in an uncertain business climate.
The court would be doing Trump a favor.
The next question is whether Trump would accept the gift.
I think not.
Trump has loved tariffs his entire life. He’s called “tariffs” his favorite word (although in the 1980s he wanted to impose tariffs on Japan, rather than China). Trump’s an old, stubborn guy; I suspect he won’t change his thinking now.
Trump also does not like to admit defeat, as the events of January 6, among other things, have demonstrated. If the Supreme Court strikes down Trump’s tariffs, he’ll choose another route to reimpose them. To do otherwise would be to admit that the Supreme Court thwarted him, and Trump could never stomach that.
Trump also like tariffs for personal reasons. Tariffs give Trump the power to rule the world. Brazil is prosecuting Jair Bolsonaro? Impose tariffs! India’s buying Russian oil? Impose tariffs! Mexico and Canada aren’t doing enough to stop the flow of fentanyl into the United States? Impose tariffs!
Unilateral discretion to impose tariffs lets Trump reward friends and punish enemies internationally, a vast expansion of his personal power. I’m sure he likes that.
Tariffs also make domestic companies come to heel. Trump can authorize exemptions from tariffs on an individual basis. Apple doesn’t want tariffs to apply to its iPhones? Voila! Apple just has to cooperate with Trump, and iPhone components are exempted from tariffs. Trump loves the idea of using government policy (tariffs) as a racket for extorting money from U.S. companies. He won’t sacrifice that power lightly.
So Trump will use alternate routes to reimpose many of the tariffs that the Supreme Court strikes down.
What’s the last piece of my prediction?
Reimposing tariffs will continue to hurt the economy, raising prices and decreasing business investment. Voters will notice a stumbling economy. And the Republicans will lose their majority in the House of Representatives this November in part because Trump will look a gift horse in the mouth. Instead of accepting defeat on the tariff issue and winning the midterms, he’ll insist on a tariff victory and thus suffer an electoral defeat.
Trump will win the tariff war, but lose the House of Representatives. A stable genius indeed.
Happy New Year!
Mark Herrmann spent 17 years as a partner at a leading international law firm and later oversaw litigation, compliance and employment matters at a large international company. He is the author of The Curmudgeon’s Guide to Practicing Law and Drug and Device Product Liability Litigation Strategy (affiliate links). You can reach him by email at [email protected].