You Know Exactly How The War In Iran Will End

Everyone says that we don’t know how the war in Iran will end.

Nonsense. We know exactly how the war will end. We even know when it will end.

But let’s start at the beginning. As the war begins, reporters foolishly ask three questions.

First, they ask a supposedly hard question for Democrats: “Do you feel safer now than you did a week ago, when Ali Khamenei was ruling Iran?”

It’s not so hard: Of course we feel safer now. The U.S. got rid of an evil man.

Second: “So that means you’re happy with how the war is going so far?”

Again, not so hard: Of course we’re happy with how the war is going so far. Generally, when the United States enters a war of choice with another country, things go swimmingly for the first few days. How were you feeling about the war in Afghanistan for the first week or two, when B-52’s were bombing the hell out of the Taliban and the Northern Alliance had them on the run? How were you feeling about the war in Iraq for the first week or two, when American troops were on a fast track to Baghdad and the Iraqis were putting up essentially no resistance?

We always feel great for the first week or two. Ask again next year. Or next decade.

Finally, a supposedly tough question for Republicans: “Will the United States deploy ground troops in Iran?”

The only answer that a senior official can give to this question publicly is: “I haven’t ruled out the use of ground troops.”  

This is common sense. You never tell the enemy the limits of your strategy. You never rule out any possible escalation. You absolutely must be noncommittal when asked about ground troops, even knowing that tomorrow’s headline will be, “Trump [or Hegseth, or whomever] Declines to Rule Out Use of Ground Troops!”

At the same time, everyone in the United States knows to a moral certainty that the U.S. will never deploy ground troops in Iran. Trump promised no “forever wars”; the American public opposes deploying ground troops; the Republican party knows (as does Trump himself) that deploying ground troops would hand the midterm elections to the Democrats.

So: (1) Trump and Hegseth won’t rule out the possibility of deploying ground troops and (2) No ground troops will be ever deployed.

Finally, you know exactly how this war will end.

Pundits are saying that, “No one knows how the war in Iran will end.”

Silly pundits.

No one knows how the war in Iran will end on the Iranian side.

Everyone knows how the war in Iran will end on the American side.

The war in Iran will be over from the American side no later than June 1.

Period.

From the American side, the war might end tomorrow, or next week, or in May, but I guarantee that it will be over by June 1. If the war were to continue into June, then it would begin to influence the midterm elections. The Republicans (and Trump) will not run that risk. The war will be over (for our side) no later than May 31.

Also, Donald Trump will declare victory on the day the war ends. Trump never loses anything. (See, for example, the 2020 election.) Nothing involving Trump ever plays to a draw. Trump always wins. 

So Trump will say that he won the war in Iran.

If a hardline regime remains in power in Iran, then Trump will say that he killed Khamenei. That was his goal all along. The regime — that is, Khamenei personally — was eliminated. Mission accomplished. We won the war.

If the war has accomplished a little more than that, so much the better. We put in place people slightly less radical than Khamenei, or whatever.

Trump won.

The one thing that will not have been happened by June 1 is for us to have any idea about how the war in Iran will end from Iran’s perspective.

How could we possibly know? What did Afghanistan’s future look like three months after the United States attacked?

What did Iraq’s future look like three months after the American invasion?

What did Libya’s future look like three months after Gaddafi fell?

Three months into this war, the lingering elements of this regime may be holding power. The elements of some other regime may be trying to establish power. Iran may have broken out into civil war. Kurdish troops may be running wild in the streets of Tehran. The country may have collapsed into sectarian violence. It may be obvious that Iran has become a failed state (with stockpiles of enriched uranium lying around unprotected).

We don’t know how this war will end from Iran’s perspective.

But we certainly know how it will end from our perspective: The U.S. government will announce that major military operations have ended. Trump will declare victory. Sean Hannity (and the rest of the MAGA lickspittles) will explain that Trump was a genius, and that we live in the best of all possible worlds. (Why wait, Sean? Just make that announcement now, and save time.)

Many on the left will of course insist on the opposite: Iran was never an immediate threat to us. Too many lives were lost. Too little was achieved at too great a cost.

But please don’t tell me that there’s some question about how this war will end.

From our perspective, you know not only how, but even when, the war will be over.

Before summer arrives, we’ll be able to make the announcement:

Congratulations, America!

You won!

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Mark Herrmann spent 17 years as a partner at a leading international law firm and later oversaw litigation, compliance and employment matters at a large international company. He is the author of The Curmudgeon’s Guide to Practicing Law and Drug and Device Product Liability Litigation Strategy (affiliate links). You can reach him by email at [email protected].