Law School Admissions Officers Express Optimism (Although Why Is Unclear)

Are we about to witness a turnaround in legal education?

The past few years have been challenging for U.S. legal education. Law school applications have fallen by 37 percent since their 2010 peak. As a result, law schools have had to accept weaker students, shrink their entering class sizes, or both. Smaller entering classes have meant reduced tuition revenue, which has resulted in layoffs of faculty and staff and even news of a campus closing.

But is legal education about to make a comeback? Survey says….

Here is some news from our friends at Kaplan Test Prep:

There are signs of guarded optimism among leaders in the legal education community, according to Kaplan’s 2014 survey of law school admissions officers, amid generally gloomy statistics. Almost half (46%) express confidence that their law school will see an increase in applications for the 2015-2016 application cycle, up from just 34% in 2013 who said the 2014-2015 cycle would see a spike in applications. Adding to the potential cause for optimism: for the first time since Kaplan began tracking the issue in 2012, the percentage of law schools that reported cutting the number of seats for their entering class dipped below 50% (47%). In 2013, this number was 54%, while in 2012 it was 51%. Additionally, the 2014 survey found that only 22% plan to cut next year.

But what is the basis for this optimism? Law school applications continue to fall, and the legal employment market remains difficult:

[A]ccording to the Law School Admission Council, the makers of the LSAT®, applications for the class that began law school this fall were down 8%, following two years of double-digit drops. Since 2010, there has been a 37% drop in applications. One legal education expert says that this year’s entering class might be only 38,000, the smallest group to enter American Bar Association-accredited law schools in 40 years. According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, as of October 2014, the legal sector is about 46,000 jobs below pre-recession record levels set in 2007.

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Some law schools have seen growth in applications (such as USC Gould School of Law; feel free to note others in the comments). But absent that kind of evidence, optimism would seem to be misplaced. As Jeff Thomas, executive director of pre-law programs at Kaplan Test Prep, puts it, “it’d be premature to celebrate. The tough job market for attorneys remains the primary cause for the continuing decline in law school applications. Until there’s a significant improvement in the employment outlook, it’s hard to imagine seeing a spike in law school applications and enrollment.”

Here’s one possible factor that might lead to a temporary increase in applications: an economic slowdown, precipitated perhaps by a big drop in the stock market or real estate prices (something that I feel could happen any day now). A bad economy sometimes drives people into law school because they can’t find jobs out of college and figure they should “wait out the recession” in the academy. Note how law school applications peaked in 2010, in the wake of the Great Recession.

But the problem, of course, is that economic troubles (eventually) translate into reduced job opportunities for lawyers, a factor that in turn deters people from applying to law school. We might see a temporary bump-up in applications the next time the economy takes a dip, but that bump-up will probably be short-lived. Just like city hall, you can’t fight secular decline.

Amid Years of Slumping Enrollment, Many Law Schools Are Predicting a Turnaround [Kaplan Test Prep]
Are Law Schools Getting Less Gloomy About the Future? [WSJ Law Blog]

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