Donald Trump, Small Law Firms

Negotiate Like Trump: Use This One Technique To Get Massive Results

You might not agree with his politics, but Trump is worth your attention if you want to study how someone deftly uses public relations, positioning, and negotiation skills to influence other people.

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Even if you’re only marginally paying attention, it should be clear that Donald Trump is currently dominating the presidential race. The media covers his every move and breath. Even if the traditional media didn’t want to cover him, Trump has managed to exploit social media to his advantage in a way no previous presidential candidate has.

Trump doesn’t need the mainstream media to get his message out, he can bypass it and go directly to individuals using social media. Many like to trumpet President Obama’s use of social media in his elections, but it’s nothing like Trump’s masterful use of the medium. Trump is the first Twitter candidate for president — no intermediary required.

One of the things that has garnered Trump so much attention is his bold and brusque statements (some would call them racist). Many in the media and the general public predicted that Trump’s statements and positions would cause him to crash and burn in public opinion. But that hasn’t played out. The more outrageous and over-the-top Trump’s statements become, the more attention and support he garners.

Trump’s most recent statement that has the people aghast is his proposal to halt Muslims from immigrating or even traveling to the United States. The reaction was immediate and voracious. People all across the political spectrum condemned Trump’s remarks. Was this extreme position finally going to be the straw that breaks the camel’s back? Looking at the most recent polling data from Real Clear Politics, it doesn’t seem like it:

Regardless, Trump’s proposed “Muslim ban” immediately caught fire in the minds of the public and again moved the debate to where Trump wanted it to go. The thing is, I don’t think Trump is actually in support of banning Muslim entrants into the country. While there is some debate on the constitutionality of his proposal, it would likely not make it through Congress nor garner popular support. And it would be foolish to think that Trump doesn’t know this.

Trump may be an offensive boor, but he’s not an idiot. And he’s not being advised by idiots. Part of Trump’s appeal to many people is his seemingly “off-the-cuff” persona. Most political candidates come across as pre-programmed automatons who only follow scripts that have been extensively vetted by focus groups. Trump seems “real” in comparison. But Trump’s seeming candor is likely just as prescribed as other political candidate’s artiface.

That’s why I don’t think Trump was serious about banning Muslims, I think he was anchoring.

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Drop The Anchor

Anchoring is a cognitive bias that describes the common human tendency to rely too heavily on the first piece of information offered (the “anchor”) when making decisions. I wrote about anchoring at the beginning of this year, particularly on how it can affect valuations in the minds of judges:

The results showed that ruling on the motion had a large effect on damage awards. The 66 judges in the No Anchor condition indicated that they would award plaintiff an average of $1.25 million while the 50 judges in the Anchor condition awarded an average of $882,000.

By placing an anchor in front of the judges, the awards varied by nearly half a million dollars. That’s how significant of an impact anchoring can have on people’s opinions. That’s how powerful providing the first mover information, the anchor, can be.

Also consider: these were judges. Highly educated men and women who are trained to be unbiased and analytical when forming their thoughts and opinions. So when faced with a similar situation, how do you think the general public would fare?

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By coming out with an extreme opinion, Trump has anchored the debate on Muslim travel in the United States. No other presidential candidate had even considered putting forth a platform regarding Muslim travel. But with Trump boldly setting the stakes so high, everyone now has to react to his position. If Trump had taken a moderate (but still right-wing/conservative) position, his negotiation ceiling would be low. He would be forced to go back and forth with opponents and the media to a softer, more palatable position that is likely less than he wants.

Instead, Trump anchored public opinion with an outright ban. As the presidential race continues, and his travel restriction proposal comes up in the media and debates, Trump will be able to step-back and clarify his statement into what is likely his actual position. But Trump is only able to do this because he initially anchored the stakes of the debate at such an extreme level.

Trump asked for the moon but can now back down and only get the stars. It seems like he’s compromising and being reasonable. But really Trump wanted the stars all along. That’s how someone skilled at negotiation works.

Moving The Window

Trump made a calculated bet that much of the country still feels anxiety regarding terrorism — Islamic terrorism specifically. In the wake of the recent attack in Paris and shooting rampage in San Bernardino, it might have even been a safe bet. So Trump came out with an anchor — ban Muslim travel — and has now set the frame for the debate on immigration and terrorism.

As many political pundits have observed, Trump’s bold use of anchoring has shifted the Overton Window on many aspects of political opinion:

Joseph Overton observed that in a given public policy area, such as education, only a relatively narrow range of potential policies will be considered politically acceptable. This “window” of politically acceptable options is primarily defined not by what politicians prefer, but rather by what they believe they can support and still win re-election. In general, then, the window shifts to include different policy options not when ideas change among politicians, but when ideas change in the society that elects them.

Most politicians are reactionary. They wait until the Overton Window shifts on a certain policy matter and then adjust their stances accordingly. Just look at Hillary Clinton’s shift from supporting the Defense of Marriage Act, then to supporting gay marriage rights as popular opinion changed.

But through either arrogance or calculation, Trump continues to use anchoring in order to shift the Overton Window towards policies and opinions towards areas where he is seen as strong and other candidates are seen as weak.

Agree or disagree with his politics (and hairstyle), but there is no denying that Trump is setting the tone for debate right now in the presidential race. You might not agree with his politics, but Trump is worth your attention if you want to study how someone deftly uses public relations, positioning, and negotiation skills to influence other people.

Keith Lee practices law at Hamer Law Group, LLC in Birmingham, Alabama. He writes about professional development, the law, the universe, and everything at Associate’s Mind. He is also the author of The Marble and The Sculptor: From Law School To Law Practice (affiliate link), published by the ABA. You can reach him at keith.lee@hamerlawgroup.com or on Twitter at @associatesmind.

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