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Less Office Space, More Vaccinations: The Workplace Of The Future

Overall, however, the future is going to involve many fewer people being in the office full time.

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The fog in my crystal ball is slowly lifting. I’m beginning to see the future.

I see two things.

First, the future will involve less leased downtown office space.

Although companies are all over the lot, only banks seem to be requiring that all employees return to their offices full time. Curiously enough, only banks are massively dependent on the commercial real estate industry for their success. Banks lend to those in the industry, securitize loans, invest in real estate, and so on. I’m thus deeming banks to be the self-interested outliers who shout that everyone must return to the office. The rest of the corporate world is less biased and guides my vision of the future. What I overwhelmingly see is a hybrid model — a relatively few people will work from home full time; a relatively few people will work from an office full time; and the vast majority of people will go into the office only one or two days per week.

This will vary by worker, naturally. On the one hand, a restaurant’s wait staff or sales people in retail stores must be in their workplaces. On the other hand, employees of, say, tech firms can work remotely. At law firms, junior litigation associates — who learn a great deal by osmosis — will be in the office more often than 63-year-old M&A partners, who may never have to see a live human being again in their professional careers. Overall, however, the future is going to involve many fewer people being in the office full time.

This will drive up the cost of living in distant suburbs. Those far-flung homes will become more expensive because people will tolerate longer commutes if they commute only one or two days each week. This will thin out the crowds on the roads and on mass transit, because eliminating even a small percentage of travelers vastly eases the commute for everyone else. This will also reduce the number of people buying lunch at downtown restaurants and running errands downtown that can now be run near home.

Over time, this will also slowly reduce the demand for downtown commercial real estate. Office leases tend to run for a decade or more. They will come up for renewal only gradually over time. And some firms will be cautious and will choose not to dramatically reduce the amount of space they lease. But, generally, firms will need less space. They’ll lease less space. The value of commercial buildings will decrease, and players in commercial real estate will suffer.

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Second, the future will involve more vaccinations.

City workers in parts of California and New York, certain federal employees, certain people associated with universities, some health care workers, and employees of several companies (including a few law firms) already must show proof of vaccination to be allowed to work from the office. The number of companies requiring proof of vaccinations is going to increase over time.

It’s tricky for the first-moving corporations to impose vaccination requirements on their employees, but it’s far easier for late movers to make the demand. And results will tell: Some people will be offended by vaccine requirements. But just a few outbreaks of COVID-19 at just a few workplaces will quickly change people’s minds. Getting vaccinated is, I suppose, inconvenient or somehow offends one’s principles; becoming seriously ill or dying is worse. Over time, people will appreciate employers who insist that their employees do what’s best for the employees’ collective health.

Governments may or may not take the political risk of imposing vaccine requirements, but private employers will worry less about politics and more about the health of their workforce. If governments won’t take the lead on requiring vaccinations, private employers will.

Over time, we’ll move to the workplace of the future: Most people will be vaccinated, and far fewer people will work from traditional downtown offices than they did in March 2020.

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My crystal ball has spoken.

Mark Herrmann spent 17 years as a partner at a leading international law firm and is now deputy general counsel at a large international company. He is the author of The Curmudgeon’s Guide to Practicing Law and Drug and Device Product Liability Litigation Strategy (affiliate links). You can reach him by email at inhouse@abovethelaw.com.

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