Why People Close To You Give Bad Advice

The military, for example, advised President Lyndon Johnson about the Vietnam War: “We can win! We can win! More troops! We can win! We can win! … Oops! We lose.”

No one wanted to deliver bad news to the boss — and he didn’t want to hear it — so they didn’t.

When the post-mortems are written about the war in Afghanistan, I bet it’ll be the same: Twenty years of “we can win,” followed by “oops,” when the United States withdrew and Kabul was immediately overrun.

I wonder what Donald Trump’s advisers are telling him now about speaking publicly on issues that are the subject of criminal investigations (or, in one case, an indictment). Competent counsel generally advise clients not to speak publicly about pending criminal matters. Trump, for example, is digging himself a bigger hole each time he speaks about the documents at Mar-a-Lago. He should stop talking.

It’s entirely possible to give that advice even to a political candidate: “Talk about anything you like, other than the subjects of criminal investigations. Build a wall; save Social Security; end the war in Ukraine in 24 hours; own the libs. But, when asked about the payment to Stormy Daniels, or the documents at Mar-a-Lago, or the events of January 6, say, ‘I’m sorry, but I can’t comment on that. My lawyers have advised me not to talk about issues that are the subject of criminal investigations.’ ”

Of course Trump should do that. But is anyone near him courageous enough to give that advice? (Perhaps they are, and Trump simply isn’t listening. Or perhaps the advisers stopped giving that advice long ago, when they realized that it was hopeless.)

How about advice on more personal issues?

Should Dianne Feinstein resign her seat in the Senate? Of course. But I doubt anyone’s giving her that advice. She probably doesn’t want to hear the advice, so it takes courage to deliver it. And, if you’re one of  Feinstein’s aides, the advice runs against your self-interest: You’re currently a high-level political aide to a United States senator. If that senator takes your advice and resigns, then you’re a schlub, just like the rest of us. Do you really think anyone close to Feinstein is advising her to resign?

Should Joe Biden run for another term as president? He’ll be 82 on Election Day and, if he wins, 86 at the end of his second term. The average life expectancy at birth for an American male is about 78 years. (The average life expectancy of a guy who’s already made it to 82 is seven years — to 89.) Life expectancy, of course, speaks only to how long you’ll be breathing; you could be in pretty bad shape by the time the end comes.

I wish Biden all the best. But my father died at 80, and the last five years weren’t so good. I know painfully few 85-year-olds who are still in both mental and physical shape to handle a job that’s awfully tough, even if you’re surrounded by top-notch aides.

But who’s telling Biden that? Do you think that Biden’s chief of staff, who’s currently one of the most powerful people in the world, is telling Biden not to run, and the chief of staff should lose his job? What do you think about any other high political aides, who are in exactly the same position?

I’m not saying that Biden’s position is crazy: He’s relatively moderate, and a Democratic primary could easily nominate someone to the far left, who might not be as electable as Biden. But I wonder how many people will stay home on Election Day in 2024 because they’re not enthusiastic about casting a ballot for a guy who’s 82.

There’s only one person who might give Biden honest advice on whether he should run again.

We were counting on you, Jill, and I think you failed us.

Mark Herrmann spent 17 years as a partner at a leading international law firm and is now deputy general counsel at a large international company. He is the author of The Curmudgeon’s Guide to Practicing Law and Drug and Device Product Liability Litigation Strategy (affiliate links). You can reach him by email at inhouse@abovethelaw.com.