Everyone’s worried about Election Day.
What will Donald Trump do? Executive actions against mail-in voting? Restrictive federal voting rules? Weakened election security? Intimidation at polling places?
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I’m only slightly worried about Election Day. I’m more worried about the day after Election Day.
Most presidents are beginning the descent into lame duck status on the day after the midterms.
I’m afraid that Trump might begin morphing into Quackzilla.
For example, would you care to live in Tehran in the days after the American midterm elections? Congressional Republicans are currently restraining Trump’s prosecution of the war in Iran by telling Trump that Republicans will lose their Congressional majorities if Trump continues to pursue an unpopular war that raises American gas prices. Trump is holding back.
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But the day after the elections, restraint evaporates.
That has a couple of implications. First, if Iran is going to obtain relief from sanctions, it must achieve that goal between now and the midterm elections. Trump might agree to sanctions relief now, to end the war and thus gain political benefit in November. It’s inconceivable that Trump will agree to sanctions relief after the elections; that would make Trump look damn near as weak as the Obama team that negotiated the original Iranian nuclear deal. It will be interesting to see how Iran makes use of this. How will Iran squeeze Trump to get relief from sanctions, and payment of money, between now and Election Day?
Second, and even worse: There’s a perception that Trump has lost the war in Iran. The United States has achieved most of its military objectives but none of Trump’s political objectives: No regime change; no restraints on supporting armed groups in the region; no restraints on non-nuclear weapons. In fact, Iran’s power may have increased because it’s now undeniable that Iran can at any time close the Strait of Hormuz and cripple the global economy.
What’s that you say? That makes Trump look like a loser?
As January 6 proved, he might not take that too well.
I’m not sure that Trump will nuke Iran the day after the election, but he sure might tell the military to turn the campaign up a few notches to be sure the world knows who won.
Election Day is restraining Trump. The day (or month) after the election could be the nasty one.
So, too, with other possible military adventures. Wouldn’t it burnish Trump’s legacy to turn Cuba into the 51st state during the Trump administration? And it’s a sop to Marco Rubio, too. What, other than the threat of political loss, is holding him back?
Trump could also turn up the heat on Greenland. Tough negotiations could take an even more aggressive turn if American troops landed in Nuuk (not to pursue a war, of course; just to be housed on American bases in the country).
Or maybe it’s time to pump oil money from Venezuela to the United States. Opportunity’s knocking, and there’s money to be made.
The making of money is something else that might attract Trump’s attention once the moderating influence of the midterms is over. Billions in crypto are nice, but tens of billion in real estate deals for Trump’s sons, or oil money from Venezuela, or stakes in American businesses, are all possibilities, and Congress would likely do nothing. If Republicans hold either branch of Congress — and holding the Senate seems likely — there’s no chance of legislation to stop Trump. If Republicans hold even 40 seats in the Senate, which is basically guaranteed, they could use the filibuster to stop any effective legislative response.
So worry a little about Election Day, November 3, 2026.
But worry a little more about November 4.
That’s when the gloves will really come off, and the world might be in for a surprise.
Mark Herrmann spent 17 years as a partner at a leading international law firm and later oversaw litigation, compliance and employment matters at a large international company. He is the author of The Curmudgeon’s Guide to Practicing Law and Drug and Device Product Liability Litigation Strategy (affiliate links). You can reach him by email at [email protected].