Biglaw used to be a well-oiled pyramid scheme. Hire an army of junior minions to toil in discovery or due diligence for a few years and by process of elimination the next generation of partners would rise. Law students camped out in some hotel, submitting themselves to 20-minute interviews that decided their career arc. Whatever else could be said about on-campus recruiting, it provided structure.
That structure is gone. And the replacement has ripple effects throughout the law firm hiring process.
Firm Prospects, a legal market intelligence outfit, just published a five-year white paper on associate hiring covering 2021 through 2025. While we’ve been talking about law firms ditching on-campus recruiting and the risks AI presents to junior hiring, law firms have reoriented themselves around the lateral market. And in 2025, for the first time in years, the majority of associate hiring happened at the experienced end of the market — lateral associates, former clerks, and government refugees — rather than straight out of law school.
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Law student hires fell to 37.5 percent of all associate hiring, down from 43.8 percent in 2021. Firm Prospects calls that 6.4-point drop “the largest structural shift in the data set in a single category.” When the “brute force” tasks that used to fill a junior associate’s day — document review, first-draft research memos, and all the other unglamorous churning chores firms bill out juniors to perform — start getting absorbed by software, the economic case for hiring an unformed law graduate gets harder to make. Why pay to season a 1L when the market is full of three-to-five-year associates who arrive pre-seasoned?
Recruiter fees may seem spendy, but they’re a bargain compared to training costs.
The few cheerleaders of the death of on-campus interviewing argued that it might level the playing field. Optimists claimed that direct application would democratize the process when firms no longer privileged the same dozen campuses with a summer-ending on-campus blitz.
The report reveals that the exact opposite happened.
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Firm Prospects tracked law student hiring by 500-plus-attorney firms across school tiers. T14 students held essentially steady — large-firm hiring of T14 grads dipped just 2.6 percent over five years. But everyone else cratered. Large-firm hiring of T18-50 students (I guess we’re counting the T14 including every school who held at least a tie in those ranks over this period) dropped 8.7 points. T51-100 fell 10.5 percent. And students from schools ranked 101-200 saw their share of big-firm hiring collapse from 52.6 percent in 2021 to 36 percent in 2025 — a 16.6-point free fall.
Because firms didn’t stop looking at the same campuses, they just started farming out hiring to 3Ls with walking around money. Not to mention, direct applications put the burden of research on the student, rewarding applicants with resources and the institutional hand-holding to navigate hundreds of firms with no calendar and no rules. On top of that, when a firm gets buried under an undifferentiated avalanche of applications, it reaches for the cheapest sorting mechanism available, which is going to be school reputation. Or as the report dryly puts it, firms “revert to the natural tendency of using law school ranking as a proxy for performance.” On-campus interviewing may have been a flawed filter, but it was, you know… a filter. It at least forced firms to show up on a campus and look someone at a regional law school in the eye. Take the filter away and you it’s not meritocracy, so much as HR hitting a Command-F for “Columbia.”
The third big finding is that New York is slipping.
New York’s share of T14 law student hiring fell 11 percent in five years. Its share of T18-50 students fell nearly 12. The winners were Chicago, Washington, and — the term that keeps recurring — the Sun Belt. Atlanta, Austin, Dallas, and a swath of Florida all gained across tiers. None of this will shock anyone who has watched Biglaw firms plant flags in Texas at a pace that has turned “another firm opens a Dallas office” into a recurring Above the Law headline genre.
There is a temptation to read all three findings as separate trend lines, but I don’t think they are. Biglaw spent the last five years quietly optimizing. It’s all about experience over potential, prestige over pipeline, and cheaper (but growing) markets over expensive ones. And it’s hard to imagine this trend reversing any time soon.
Joe Patrice is a senior editor at Above the Law and co-host of Thinking Like A Lawyer. Feel free to email any tips, questions, or comments. Follow him on Twitter or Bluesky if you’re interested in law, politics, and a healthy dose of college sports news.